ATL: BERTHA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track: Still below 10N.

AL, 93, 2014072918, , BEST, 0, 95N, 401W, 30, 1012, DB

[bella_may]

Any chance this makes it in the gulf?

[floridasun78]

Any chance this makes it in the gulf?

only cross into western carribbean or cross fl or by keys that not forecast now

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Blown Away]

18z Best Track: Still below 10N.

AL, 93, 2014072918, , BEST, 0, 95N, 401W, 30, 1012, DB

LLC positioned farther south...

[StarmanHDB]

Any chance this makes it in the gulf?

only cross into western carribbean or cross fl or by keys that not forecast now

And exactly where did you get this information? Can you please cite this as such information is vital for those who have interests in these regions. You sound so definitive!

[TheStormExpert]

Yet another unprofessional tweet from a local met here in WPB, FL

@TyTheWeatherGuy: ... It could form today, but likely won't until tomorrow. Still no need to worry about 93L. Models keep it well east of FL & the Bahamas.

[JonathanBelles]

Yet another unprofessional tweet from a local met here in WPB, FL

--Tweet Removed--

How is that unprofessional? He is keeping the hype down, for all the right reasons. Please stop bashing meteorologists doing their jobs.

[AdamFirst]

If this were August 29 rather than July 29 I'd be more worried

[Frank2]

No one has mentioned that the outcome might be similar to TD 2 - per the OCM's on Sunday some models at that time did show it to dissipate...

[cycloneye]

NHC Marine forecast:

INTERESTS ACROSS E AND NE CARIB SHOULD BEGIN TO
FOCUS ON TROPICAL LOW ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC ALONG ABOUT 40W THIS
AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY GAINING BETTER ORGANIZATION. GLOBAL MODELS
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON A WNW TRAJECTORY TOWARD THE NE CARIB
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL AND
CLOSEST TO THE FORECAST AGREED ON WITH NHC/WPC COORDINATION. STILL
EARLY FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TROPICAL LOW ALONG 40W THIS
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED NEXT 24-48
HOURS...WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION POSSIBLE. THE GFS AND CMC
ARE THE ONLY GLOBAL MODELS THAT HOLD ONTO A CLOSED LOW CENTER AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SW N ATLC SAT NIGHT/SUN. THE FORECAST
AGREED ON DURING NHC/WPC COORDINATION WAS CLOSEST TO THE GFS
FORECAST...SO IT WAS USED TO ADJUST THE GRIDS HERE AS WELL AS
DURING THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE PERIOD WHEN THERE ARE NO NOTABLE
MODEL DIFFERENCES AND WINDS/SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT/8 FT.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/text/MI ... 291801.txt

[Hammy]

No one has mentioned that the outcome might be similar to TD 2 - per the OCM's on Sunday some models at that time did show it to dissipate...

While the convective activity is looking a bit sick this afternoon (though it is DMIN) this differs from TD2 is that TD2 was much smaller, had more dry air to deal with, and was moving very fast.

[Aric Dunn]

Very likely a TS already given its forward speed and organization. Even though there is some easterly shear and a bit of mid level dry air..

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Shear doesn't look as strong as earlier based on the movement of cirrus around 93L, but it will take a while to mix out the dry air that got entrained. Active convection in the northern convective band may signal an increase in central convection later tonight.

[floridasun78]

Any chance this makes it in the gulf?

only cross into western carribbean or cross fl or by keys that not forecast now

And exactly where did you get this information? Can you please cite this as such information is vital for those who have interests in these regions. You sound so definitive!

none model up to date show it going far west into gulf Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS product

[GeneratorPower]

Yet another unprofessional tweet from a local met here in WPB, FL

--Tweet Removed--

How is that unprofessional? He is keeping the hype down, for all the right reasons. Please stop bashing meteorologists doing their jobs.

I'm understandably biased because I work in the storm preparedness business, and live in South Florida. But answering your question, it's unprofessional and just plain wrong to give people reassurance that this isn't going to affect them, at this point in time. Maybe later in the week when the system evolves, that'd be an appropriate reassurance. But not now.

Professional people understand the limitations of their field of study, and their own abilities, and encourage people to stay tuned, not tune out. All it takes is ONE FORECASTER with ONE TWEET saying "not a threat" and a few people will tune out. I know, because I work with these people all day long. "Oh, <meteorologist on channel x said it won't affect us>" blah blah blah. People believe what the TV tells them.

These mets downplaying risk should wait a few more days before doing so.

[cycloneye]

Levi Cowan made another video about 93L. I can say he doesn't paint a good picture for 93L.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... -intensify

[HurricaneBelle]

All the met said was "Still no need to worry about 93L". And there isn't any need to worry about it in Florida yet as it's 1) not even a classified system, 2) at 35W, 3) not shown by the models to be a FL threat and 4) the persistent EC trough.

This is different than John Morales saying "no chance at all". But the system is at least a week away from Florida and if events change, then the local mets will change their tune. If say in 7-10 days the storm becomes a FL threat and watches and warnings go up, I don't think anyone is going to say "So and So on Channel 6 said 10 days ago that there's no need to worry about it, so I'm not going to do anything."

[hurrtracker79]

Who thinks we will see a 5PM upgrade to TD3?

[Dave C]

I think the met is just talking about the current trends. If these trends change as time goes on he'll let people know. Many days left before any potential impact on Florida or Bahama islands.

[sunnyday]

I never want a storm to hit anywhere, but I got so tired of hearing the word "recurve" last season, and I'm seeing that word again this season! Is there something else we could call it?