ATL: BERTHA - Models

[Blown Away]

18z GFS... 138 Hours... Pressure going down again... Looks N of 12z...

[Blown Away]

18z GFS... 150 Hours... Maintaining TD/TS, maybe... Moving WNW

[Blown Away]

18z GFS... 168 Hours... Getting a little stronger... Looks like exit stage right starting...

[Blown Away]

18z GFS... 180 Hours.. Moving NNE?... 996 mb... 93L survives and makes a comeback on 18z...

[Riptide]

The recurve is way out in the long-range and that trough is very shallow and zonal, expect more shifts.

[Blown Away]

18z GFS... 192 Hours... 93L is roaring back... Seems to be taking it's time exiting

[Blown Away]

18z GFS... 228 Hours... Still drifting around... Weakening again... Steering seems very weak from hours 162-228...

[Riptide]

The Sea Level Pressure increase is due to the model truncation after hour 192, fwiw.

[Blown Away]

18z GFS... 288 Hours... Swipes Bermuda on it's way out...

[TheStormExpert]

High Resolution only goes out to about 204-216hrs. after that it's anyone's guess especially since it's Fantasy Land!

[Blown Away]

The recurve is way out in the long-range and that trough is very shallow and zonal, expect more shifts.

That was an interesting run for sure... Once 93L got to the NW Bahamas, it had hard time figuring out where to go from there... Enough to lift it out, barely... The big news is the GFS didn't kill 93L off this time...

[Hurricaneman]

The recurve is way out in the long-range and that trough is very shallow and zonal, expect more shifts.

That was an interesting run for sure... Once 93L got to the NW Bahamas, it had hard time figuring out where to go from there... Enough to lift it out, barely... The big news is the GFS didn't kill 93L off this time...

in the setup shown here on the 18zGFS it does go out to sea but stalls out for a period so the chances of US landfall IMO have gone up from 2% to 5% and could go up farther if farther west shifts continue

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Alyono]

HWRF merely maintains its current intensity through 5 days. Only minor fluctuations occur. Pressure never drops below 1008mb

I'm thinking this is probably the most realistic solution at this point

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 300048
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0048 UTC WED JUL 30 2014

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932014) 20140730 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
140730 0000 140730 1200 140731 0000 140731 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.5N 41.3W 10.1N 44.5W 10.8N 47.8W 11.4N 50.9W
BAMD 9.5N 41.3W 9.8N 43.6W 10.3N 45.8W 11.1N 47.9W
BAMM 9.5N 41.3W 9.8N 43.8W 10.3N 46.3W 11.0N 48.8W
LBAR 9.5N 41.3W 9.4N 44.1W 9.6N 46.9W 10.0N 49.7W

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
140801 0000 140802 0000 140803 0000 140804 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.0N 53.5W 13.5N 58.8W 16.1N 64.2W 18.3N 69.6W
BAMD 11.9N 49.8W 14.4N 53.9W 17.5N 58.2W 20.3N 62.0W
BAMM 12.0N 51.1W 14.8N 56.0W 18.0N 60.9W 21.0N 65.1W
LBAR 10.6N 52.3W 12.3N 57.8W 15.2N 62.1W 21.7N 66.1W

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.5N LONCUR = 41.3W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 9.5N LONM12 = 38.6W DIRM12 = 268DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 9.6N LONM24 = 35.5W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Hurricaneman]

I'm starting to wonder if the GFS is doing it again with over development on this one and the phantom storms of the past, it seems as thought we still have that problem with the GFS so in this case go with a blend of the Euro and the GFS because I do believe the truth will lie in between if not closer to the Euro

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Alyono]

SHIPS and LGEM are now in the lower bounds of a cat 1 hurricane

[ronjon]

18z GFDL and HWRF models show weak TS sliding through virgin islands and clipping NE PR.

[Blown Away]

00z... Most of the models not crashing down and maintain TS...

[TheStormExpert]

The HWFI/HWRF hurricane model seems to be an outlier on that graphic. Wonder if it will be the one that actually gets 93L's intensity right?

[Blown Away]

00z... Decent left shift with the models... I'm thinking 93L is going to stay shallow and find it's way into the Caribbean before turning north, JMHO...