Moving West

Anonymous · #41 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 8:44 pm

Josephine96 wrote:Weather Man- Please remind me.. what was your prediction..?

Ridge builds, trough does nothing, She impacts somewhere in FL

#42 Postby **Steve Cosby** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 8:47 pm

Weatherman182001 wrote:Ridge builds, trough does nothing, She impacts somewhere in FL

Woop, thar it is.

We need to figure out a way to immortalize this post. He may be right / he may be wrong...

Josephine96 · #43 Postby **Josephine96** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 8:47 pm

Weather man- Good man.. stick to whatever your prediction is.. Mine is the same too.. but everytime I speak my mind I get bashed or accused of a wishcast...

we shall see....

Anonymous · #44 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 9:01 pm

Might be right might not. Problem is, when Isabel was moving due west and it wobbled wnw, people said "Oh this is the trend I know it!" Well it wasn't until 2 or so days later. Suddenly I point out wobbles and it is "no way!... those are just wobbles." When Isabel was moving due west, she did not have these big of wobbles and at least remained pretty due west. She is going all over the place here. The atmosphere is very unstable for her and as the ridge builds she will have no place to go but west.

Even NHC is underestimating the Canadian ridge in their discussion.

#45 Postby **Steve Cosby** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 9:03 pm

Did you see the maps that wxman57 put up tonight? There is clearly a corridor just waiting for Issy to move up. The due west move just seems real unlikely.

Anonymous · #46 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 9:06 pm

which is shrinking by the second as the low moves NE

Josephine96 · #47 Postby **Josephine96** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 9:08 pm

What is shrinking...? Forgive me for sounding clueless lol

Anonymous · #48 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 9:09 pm

The gap that Isabel wants to move to! The ridge is building!

Josephine96 · #49 Postby **Josephine96** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 9:11 pm

Ah... thank you Weatherman... Tomorrow and Monday could be interesting days around here.. Oh the joys of living in Florida in the middle of hurricane season lol

#50 Postby **azskyman** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 9:21 pm

Of particular interest the next 36-48 hours will be how much forward speed to the west this storm will move. Virtually all the models are expecting her to shift north rather prominently out another few days...but if she decides to claim territory inch by inch toward Florida first, then the trajectory can shift and she will still find some land to beat up on...watching closely....all of us.

Steve H. · #51 Postby **Steve H.** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 9:31 pm

Well she's moving 275/280 right now....and convection is re-firing in the western semi-circle. This is still up in the air folks. No need to waste energy on it 8-)

#52 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 9:49 pm

Again weatherman...that is NOT the low that is going to turn the storm...every model shows this one missing Izzy. This is NOT the trof...this is NOT the trof...this is NOT the trof.

One more time....just in case...this is NOT the trof. The trof is yet to come in 2-3 days. It is also the fact the the ridge will orient more N-S and cause the steering flow to shift, which will place Izzy on the west side of it.

You mentioned the ridge is building. What are the 24 hour height rises?

WeatherNLU · #53 Postby **WeatherNLU** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 10:03 pm

Air Force Met wrote:PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT

From the NHC

Sure, the 6-12 motion remains 285, but to call 285 WNW is a stretch the NHC loves to make. 292.5 is WNW, so really, it's still has not reached a true WNW'ly heading.

Secondly, look at the coords.

22.6 62.6 at 5PM
23.0 63.7 at 11PM

.4 1.1 difference (.4 .8 would be true WNW)

I took a sample from GHCC at 8PM, here are my coords.

22.9 63.1 8PM
23.1 63.9 11PM (using my 11PM for consistency on loop)

.2 .8 difference

It surely to me, and it's just my opinion, looks as though the true WNW motion the NHC is looking for HAS NOT yet started. I'm not saying it will not, although I have my doubts, but as of yet it has not made that more WNW'ly track permanent.

WeatherNLU · #54 Postby **WeatherNLU** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 10:11 pm

Air Force Met wrote: The trof is yet to come in 2-3 days.

See, here's the problem IMO. AFM, you clearly are a met, as am I. I am sure that you are damn good one to by reading your posts. I can clearly understand them because I have the training and expertise as do you. The problem though is what I quoted above. That's the problem with a lot of TV meteorologists as far as I am concerned. (No idea which sector you work in, though I gather the AF is not a bad guess) Too concerned about what a computer thinks is going to happen in three days. I agree with every word you said, I just want to make sure you realize how much faith you are putting in a computer that has been wrong as much as it has been right. I still think it is too early to guess. If we see that longwave digging down come tomorrow night and into Monday morning, you win. If not, the computer is wrong and so are you.

Again, this is just my opinion, not trying to flame you. I respect you a ton just based on this thread. In case you can't tell though, I have some doubts about the trof coming down.....the second one.

Anonymous · #55 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 10:21 pm

Air Force Met wrote:Again weatherman...that is NOT the low that is going to turn the storm...every model shows this one missing Izzy. This is NOT the trof...this is NOT the trof...this is NOT the trof.

One more time....just in case...this is NOT the trof. The trof is yet to come in 2-3 days. It is also the fact the the ridge will orient more N-S and cause the steering flow to shift, which will place Izzy on the west side of it.

You mentioned the ridge is building. What are the 24 hour height rises?

Isn't it trough?

And that second "trof" better catch up.

ColdFront77 · #56 Postby **ColdFront77** » Sun Sep 14, 2003 3:28 am

The correct way of spelling "trough" is "trough. The National Weather Service uses the word "trof," though.

deb_in_nc · #57 Postby **deb_in_nc** » Sun Sep 14, 2003 3:58 am

NHC shortens words,too. Sometimes I find myself stuck trying to figure them out. That's okay though. If I don't know what it is, I'll ask.

Debbie

#58 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sun Sep 14, 2003 6:49 am

Weatherman...in the biz...we shorten the word to trof on maps...well...we used to when we used to have maps.

#59 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sun Sep 14, 2003 6:56 am

WeatherNLU - Understand that if the models were not clustered...everyone of them. Does it really take a lot of faith to put your eggs in that basket? I don't think so. I've been doing this so long that I've never seen every model jump on something and be wrong...so wrong...that they predicted a NC northward landfall and it went into south Florida. THat has never happened even when the earliest dynamic models came out...much less with todays models.

Also...it is important to remember we are not talking 10 days out now or 6 days out...to hit Florida...these models have to ALL be wrong 2-3 days out.

Now...given THAT information. DOes it really take a lot of faith to put my eggs in the model basket when they all say the same thing and we are only 3 days out? Think as a met. No...it doesn't ALL the models are not going to be 600 miles off 3 days out. That is not going to happen.

#60 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sun Sep 14, 2003 9:11 am

Well weatherman...still going for a closing gap and building ridge? Go to a 25 image GHCC loop...low rez so you can see the eastern us (i km ir) and tell me what you see. If you extrap the movement out...it would come into Jax now if it didn't turn at all...and it will turn. See the first trof? It will miss and the storm will slow...maybe even turn back to the west for 12 hours...maybe. However...on the edge of your screen...over KS...OK and TX...you see the longwave. There are TSTMS in TX going off. That is the trof (trough) we have been trying to tell you the models were progging that was coming for izzy. That was what I was telling John. That was what every model was seeing.

That's why you cannot turn a now cast (what it is doing now...and what you see in a current satellite loop) and turn it into a 72-120 hour forecast. Look at that 25 frame loop and take the long term motion. Extrap it out and most of FL is out of the woods...then look at that trof off to the west steaming eastward.

CHOO CHOO!!!!

Moving West

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