ATL: BERTHA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[torrea40]

we're close to having a dead wave

When.??? tomorrow.??

[ninel conde]

if the MJO is favorable now and this is the best we get dont expect much this season. i dont see any chance it ever finds a place to develop.

[gatorcane]

we're close to having a dead wave

I agree this wave is in serious trouble suddenly. As some has mentioned, no new convection popping during DMAX is a sign of a big problem and if convection can't get going soon it will gradually spin down and/or become a naked swirl.

Reminds us why generally speaking we don't see systems develop that far out in the Atlantic until starting around mid August which is still a couple of weeks away.

[blp]

The low levels are still strong it has a ways to go before it is done.

[TheStormExpert]

we're close to having a dead wave

I agree this wave is in serious trouble suddenly. As some has mentioned, no new convection popping during DMAX is a sign of a big problem and if convection can't get going soon it will gradually spin down and/or become a naked swirl.

Reminds us why generally speaking we don't see systems develop that far out in the Atlantic until starting around mid August which is still a couple of weeks away.

Even in a few weeks we probably won't see much.

In seasons that featured big Cape Verde seasons we had strong Tropical Waves traversing the MDR as early as early June! This year there was nothing, it was a complete Desert back then, and it basically still is now.

2014 is basically just starting off where 2013 left off with these horrid conditions hurricane fanatics like me don't like to see.

[TheStormExpert]

The low levels are still strong it has a ways to go before it is done.

http://i59.tinypic.com/2rzoz77.gif

Convection wise it doesn't. This thing is looking worse and worse every passing hour!

[abajan]

It'll be interesting to see what chances for development are given in the 2 AM TWO because this thing looks really poor!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I agree. This is just going to be a continuation of last year. Still have the persistent shear, fronts dropping down to gulf coast, unseasonably strong east coast trough, and tons of dry air. This reminds me of a few invests that were in the gulf last year that models kept showing blowing up and everybody was ready for the lid to come off the season and all we ended up was with naked swirls.

[blp]

Reminds us why generally speaking we don't see systems develop that far out in the Atlantic until starting around mid August which is still a couple of weeks away.

Even in a few weeks we probably won't see much.

In seasons that featured big Cape Verde seasons we had strong Tropical Waves traversing the MDR as early as early June! This year there was nothing, it was a complete Desert back then, and it basically still is now.

2014 is basically just starting off where 2013 left off with these horrid conditions hurricane fanatics like me don't like to see.

This belongs in Talkin Tropics.

[Blown Away]

Some deeper convection popping around the LLC...

[TheStormExpert]

I agree. This is just going to be a continuation of last year. Still have the persistent shear, fronts dropping down to gulf coast, unseasonably strong east coast trough, and tons of dry air. This reminds me of a few invests that were in the gulf last year that models kept showing blowing up and everybody was ready for the lid to come off the season and all we ended up was with naked swirls.

The only basin that seems to be able to actually produce quality storms throughout the season is the Western Pacific.

Still wondering how we even managed to squeeze out a formidable Cat.2 hurricane off the SE coast several weeks ago, just seems too weird yet very aggravating and annoying.

[TheStormExpert]

http://i58.tinypic.com/1figd1.jpg
Some deeper convection popping around the LLC...

If it can build some to the north that could possibly be enough to fend off the dry air and SAL for the time being.

[Hammy]

if the MJO is favorable now and this is the best we get dont expect much this season. i dont see any chance it ever finds a place to develop.

I agree that this system is pretty much dead, though the MJO is negative at the moment if I'm reading the charts correctly--from alot of the comments we seem to have had a Kelvin wave which is now passed.

[Hurricaneman]

I thought I read earlier in the thread that someone said that the MJO was in a favorable phase which is completely false as its currently in phase 6 which is an unfavorable phase for the Atlantic and might also be the reason that 93L is struggling currently

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Fego]

Hurricane Research Division still up with the missions.

Hurricane Field Program Update – Tuesday, July 29, 2014 10:25PM Eastern

G-IV: Is tasked to fly a surveillance mission around the area of disturbance in the mid Atlantic (AL93). No HRD scientists will be on this flight.

NOAA42: Is tasked to fly a Pre-storm ocean survey research mission. The goal of this mission is to gather oceanic and atmospheric data in the area ahead of AL93. The NOAA42 aircraft is scheduled to take off at 10AM (eastern) from St. Croix and recover in Barbados eight hours later. Two HRD scientists will be onboard.

[NDG]

if the MJO is favorable now and this is the best we get dont expect much this season. i dont see any chance it ever finds a place to develop.

I agree that this system is pretty much dead, though the MJO is negative at the moment if I'm reading the charts correctly--from alot of the comments we seem to have had a Kelvin wave which is now passed.

Yeap, Hammy is right, MJO is not in the favorable phase of the Atlantic right now, it is still in the Pacific.

I am not declaring 93L dead yet as long as King Euro still shows development of it over the next 72 hrs.

[blp]

There is not one model that dissipates this system until the Bahamas and until I see a change then I will not buy into dissipation.

[Frank2]

Yes and wil reassess in the morning - still enough time for HRD to use those allocated flight hours...

[Hurricaneman]

There is not one model that dissipates this system until the Bahamas and until I see a change then I will start to buy into dissipation.

but that could change once the upper atmosphere is sampled and ingested into the models so the flights tomorrow are going to be important in this case

as of now there is convection starting to fire near the center right now

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[blp]

There is not one model that dissipates this system until the Bahamas and until I see a change then I will start to buy into dissipation.

but that could change once the upper atmosphere is sampled and ingested into the models so the flights tomorrow are going to be important in this case

as of now there is convection starting to fire near the center right now

You don't need the planes. With TD 2 the models accurately predicted dissipation for several days before it happened without the planes. Recon only helps sharpen the forecast.