ATL: BERTHA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

There is not one model that dissipates this system until the Bahamas and until I see a change then I will not buy into dissipation.

Agree, 18z GFS didn't dissipate 93L compared to previous runs... Struggling tonight, but there is some new convection popping and a decent circulation... I could see these models continue to shift left through 144 hours due to 93L staying shallow... A few hundred miles in deviation can change the outcome...

[TheStormExpert]

The GFS IMO is a outlier strength wise and looks to be basically there for entertainment purposes ATM. I'm now going with the Euro on this one.

[AEWspotter]

The latest HWRF run has a sloppy system with 45kt winds dissipate just north of Puerto Rico. The latest GFDL run has a 60kt tropical storm north of Hispanola in 5 days.

I don't think 93L is dead yet, but the sudden loss of convection is not a good sign. LLC needs to tighten up and it's only going to do that if convection pops. Diurnal max or bust...

[CFLHurricane]

It's showing some renewed convection, although I'm not keeping my hopes up.

Not that I'm hoping for much seeing as I'd be just fine with it skirting Florida as a depression.

Arthur was some of the best weather we've had all year.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

Convection popping near center of Invest 93L and it may get better organized later today. Let's see how much of a fighter it will be today.



Synopsis for Invest 93L and other areas in other basins: http://goo.gl/B6XF3c

[Hammy]

It almost looks like the circulation center redeveloped further west, and in fact the last ASCAT showed what appeared to be two competing LLCs.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Seems like the best it's doing at DMAX isn't really much. Looks like a little bit of convection is forming over the center or just west of it.

[Brent]

Looks like death! I can't help but think that this is just 2013 all over again.

[100feettstormsurge]

Looks like death! I can't help but think that this is just 2013 all over again.

Except the U.S. has already had Arthur.

[Alyono]

think we MAY have one dead system. Couldn't fire at DMAX. Couldnt overcome the very hostile large scale conditions

[Hurricane Alexis]

Only seems to be producing weak convection at this time. The burst of convection from earlier in the night seems to be weakening now. It will probably be a naked swirl later on in the day.

[abajan]

think we MAY have one dead system. Couldn't fire at DMAX. Couldnt overcome the very hostile large scale conditions

I'm inclined to agree. This thing just looks awful! I'm really surprised at the formation chances given in the 2 AM TWO. I thought both percentages would have dropped significantly.

[Hurricane Alexis]

First visible

[cycloneye]

I thought that the overnight hours would be beneficial for 93L to gather convection but it has only managed to form a few clouds.And this is almost opening up.

TXNT25 KNES 300608
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93L)

B. 30/0545Z

C. 9.4N

D. 42.8W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0/S0.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...LESS THAN 2/10 CURVED BANDING YIELDS A DT=0.0 WITH THE
MET AND PT IN AGREEMENT. FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS WHICH DO NO ALLOW
THE FT TO BE LOWERED AT NIGHT IN THE FIRST 48 HOURS OF DEVELOPMENT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MCCARTHY

[SFLcane]

Atlantic basin = Joke

[cycloneye]

The headline in the main Puerto Rico newspaper is PR prepares for rationing of water. We had been waiting to see if 93L would terminate the drought but it looks like is not a sure thing right now.

[tropicwatch]

Well the shear has lessened and as it gets closer to the islands there is not as much dry air but the shear picks back up in that area. Unless the shear comes down in the Caribbean, 93L will have a hard time of it I think.

[ninel conde]

The headline in the main Puerto Rico newspaper is PR prepares for rationing of water. We had been waiting to see if 93L would terminate the drought but it looks like is not a sure thing right now.

sorry to hear that. it used to be even in dead seasons waves with convection would give you rain. now they just all dry up.

[caribepr]

The headline in the main Puerto Rico newspaper is PR prepares for rationing of water. We had been waiting to see if 93L would terminate the drought but it looks like is not a sure thing right now.

Fingers crossed and doing the gentle rain dance

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 1150 miles east of the southern Windward Islands
remain limited. This system continues to show signs of
organization, however, and the low could develop into a tropical
depression later today or tomorrow while it moves generally
west-northwestward near 15 mph. Interests in the Lesser Antilles
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch