WPAC: NAKRI - Severe Tropical Storm

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

96W INVEST 140728 1200 18.6N 133.4E WPAC 20 1003

Very monsoon depression like system. Large systems like this take a longer time to develop

[euro6208]

Remains MEDIUM

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.4N
133.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 133.4E, APPROXIMATELY 550 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA. ANIMATED ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A VERY BROAD AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION
FLARING AROUND THE OUTER PERIPHERIES WHILE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER REMAINS POORLY DEFINED AND CENTRAL CONVECTION IS LIMITED.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT WITH
GOOD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

Remains MEDIUM

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.6N
133.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 132.0E, APPROXIMATELY 505 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A MONSOON DEPRESSION WITH DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A POORLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 290055Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS AN EXTENSIVE REGION OF 25 TO
35 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH 20 TO
25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE (ALMOST 700 NM IN DIAMETER), FAIRLY
SYMMETRIC ENVELOPE OF DEEP MOISTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
STRONG ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CENTER WITH BROAD OUTFLOW. VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) IS LOW OVER THE CONVECTION-FREE CENTER, BUT INCREASES TO
MODERATE TO STRONG LEVELS OVER THE PERIPHERY. CONSEQUENTLY, THE DEEP
CONVECTION HAS CYCLED RAPIDLY AND HAS YET TO CONSOLIDATE AS A
TYPICAL TROPICAL CYCLONE. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE MONSOON
DEPRESSION WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[Hurricane_Luis]

JMA has Tropical Storm Nakri



TS 1412 (NAKRI)
Issued at 19:30 UTC, 29 July 2014

<Analyses at 29/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N18°35'(18.6°)
E129°30'(129.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more S600km(325NM)
N330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 30/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N21°30'(21.5°)
E126°50'(126.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)

<Forecast for 31/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N24°10'(24.2°)
E125°05'(125.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)

<Forecast for 01/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N28°10'(28.2°)
E123°05'(123.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)

[euro6208]

Latest:

20140729 1432 17.6 -129.7 T1.0/1.0 96W 96W
20140727 0832 15.9 -134.2 Too Weak 96W 96W
20140727 0232 15.0 -134.1 T1.0/1.5 96W 96W
20140726 2032 13.9 -134.1 T1.0/1.5 96W 96W

TXPQ21 KNES 291506
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96W)

B. 29/1432Z

C. 17.6N

D. 129.7E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...LESS THAN .5 DEGREE SHEAR FOR UNREPRESENTATIVE DT=3.0.
MET AND PT=1.0. FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

29/1103Z 17.7N 129.6E SSMIS


...SALEMI

[euro6208]

WTPN21 PGTW 292300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.8N 131.1E TO 25.3N 126.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 292030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.9N 130.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.9N
132.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 130.5E, APPROXIMATELY 416NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A MONSOON DEPRESSION WITH IMPROVED DEEP
CONVECTION BEGINS TO CONSOLIDATE AS A TYPICAL TROPICAL CYCLONE. AN
OLDER ASCAT 291200Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS AN EXTENSIVE REGION OF 30 TO
40 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH 20 TO
25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE (ALMOST 700 NM IN DIAMETER), FAIRLY
SYMMETRIC ENVELOPE OF DEEP MOISTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. DUE TO IMPROVED DEEP
CONVECTION AND CONSOLIDATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
302300Z.
//
NNNN

[supercane]

Latest JMA advisory and prognostic discussion:
WTPQ50 RJTD 300000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1412 NAKRI (1412)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300000UTC 19.5N 129.5E POOR
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 325NM SOUTH 180NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 310000UTC 23.0N 126.9E 75NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 010000UTC 26.5N 125.0E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 020000UTC 30.7N 123.7E 210NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 030000UTC 32.5N 123.0E 240NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
120HF 040000UTC 34.1N 122.7E 300NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY =


WTPQ30 RJTD 300000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 3 FOR TS 1412 NAKRI (1412)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 300000 UTC IS POOR.
TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE.
TS WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

No sign that JTWC ready to upgrade system yet based on their most recent Dvorak:
TPPN10 PGTW 300019
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96W (NAKRI)
B. 29/2332Z
C. 22.3N
D. 130.6E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO
WEAK TO CLASSIFY.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
29/1906Z 19.8N 130.7E TRMM

[euro6208]

No sign that JTWC ready to upgrade system yet based on their most recent Dvorak:
TPPN10 PGTW 300019
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96W (NAKRI)
B. 29/2332Z
C. 22.3N
D. 130.6E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO
WEAK TO CLASSIFY.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
29/1906Z 19.8N 130.7E TRMM

I be damned. Even KNES is agreeing...

20140729 2101 22.0 -130.0 Too Weak 96W NAKRI

TXPQ21 KNES 292149
TCSWNP

A. NAKRI (96W)

B. 29/2101Z

C. 22.0N

D. 130.0E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. TOO WEAK

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...FIRST VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED BUT SMALL
CIRCULATION CENTER FARTHER NORTH-NORTHEAST OF OUR PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED
POSITION AND CENTER IS THEREFORE RELOCATED AT THIS TIME. SYSTEM LACKS
CONVECTION WITHIN 2 DEGREES OF THE CENTER. BANDING DOES NOT EXCEED THE
2/10 NECESSARY FOR A T1.0 SO SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY BY DVORAK
STANDARDS AND THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN ISSUED UNLESS REGENERATION
OCCURS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

[supercane]

Out of other centers, Korea the highest at 41kt:
WTKO20 RKSL 300000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 2
NAME 1412 NAKRI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 300000UTC 20.0N 128.4E
MOVEMENT N 17KT
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 310000UTC 23.6N 127.0E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
48HR
POSITION 010000UTC 27.1N 124.9E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
72HR
POSITION 020000UTC 30.4N 122.7E WITHIN 215NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 60KT
96HR
POSITION 030000UTC 32.7N 121.3E WITHIN 295NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
120HR
POSITION 040000UTC 35.0N 120.1E WITHIN 380NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

Beijing in line with JMA in current intensity and most aggressive in future intensity with peak strength of 42m/s ~ 80kt compared with 45kt for JMA and 60kt for KMA:
WTPQ20 BABJ 300000
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS NAKRI 1412 (1412) INITIAL TIME 300000 UTC
00HR 19.6N 129.6E 996HPA 18M/S
30KTS WINDS 280KM NORTHEAST
300KM SOUTHEAST
400KM SOUTHWEST
280KM NORTHWEST
MOVE NNW 25KM/H
P+12HR 22.5N 128.1E 992HPA 20M/S
P+24HR 24.6N 126.8E 990HPA 23M/S
P+36HR 26.8N 125.2E 985HPA 28M/S
P+48HR 28.5N 124.0E 975HPA 33M/S
P+60HR 30.0N 122.8E 955HPA 42M/S
P+72HR 31.2N 121.8E 965HPA 38M/S
P+96HR 32.3N 120.7E 980HPA 30M/S
P+120HR 33.2N 119.0E 998HPA 15M/S=

[euro6208]

Looks like a large monsoonal gyre...

DEPICTS A MONSOON DEPRESSION WITH IMPROVED DEEP
CONVECTION BEGINS TO CONSOLIDATE AS A TYPICAL TROPICAL CYCLONE.

[supercane]

ASCAT does confirm high winds though around the center:

[euro6208]

ASCAT does confirm high winds though around the center:

Monsoonal gyres are known to produce gale force winds over a large area so not surprised with that ASCAT.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (MONSOON DEPRESSION) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 130.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 129.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 225 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED,
FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MONSOON DEPRESSION. A 300124Z METOP-B 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A VERY
BROAD LLCC WITH BROAD CONVECTIVE BANDING AND NO DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THE CORE. A 300029Z ASCAT IMAGE CONTINUES TO DEPICT EXTENSIVE 30 TO
35-KNOT PERIPHERAL WINDS WITH WEAK CORE WINDS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE (ALMOST 700 NM IN
DIAMETER), FAIRLY SYMMETRIC ENVELOPE OF DEEP MOISTURE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 292300) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.

[euro6208]

96W INVEST 140730 1200 24.0N 128.7E WPAC 20 1007

Looking rather unimpressive this evening. Deep convection remains far removed from the center...It's large albeit disorganized circulation depicts that of a tropical cyclone though.

[euro6208]

It has everything going for it though...Large moist envelope, ssts, divergence except shear...

Very small anticyclone over the estimated center but increases dramatically to 20-40 knots everywhere...

[euro6208]

JMA:

TS 1412 (NAKRI)
Issued at 09:50 UTC, 30 July 2014

<Analyses at 30/09 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity -
Center position N22°00'(22.0°)
E129°20'(129.3°)
Direction and speed of movement N 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more E650km(350NM)
W500km(270NM)

<Forecast for 30/21 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N22°50'(22.8°)
E127°55'(127.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)

<Forecast for 31/09 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N24°20'(24.3°)
E126°10'(126.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)

<Forecast for 01/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N27°20'(27.3°)
E124°50'(124.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 02/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N31°35'(31.6°)
E123°35'(123.6°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

WOW.

NAVGEM intensifying this into a monster typhoon...

[euro6208]

Very large moisture envelope...



Reaching the top of the scale...Impressive...