ATL: BERTHA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MGC]

I would not give up on 93L until it opens into a wave. I've seen these systems limp along for days only to find the right spot and get going. Still some decent convection on the south side away from the dry air. As 93L heads west, it will move over warmer water, this could be the catalyst needed to overcome the dry air. I would say the chances of development are around 50% in the short term. Since 93L has remained shallow, I expect the models to start trending to the left......MGC

The above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.

[underthwx]

In my opinion-based only on the way the system appears on satellite -Im thinking it becomes a depression./tropical storm tomorrow. Only my opinion.

[xironman]

The shear maps show how dry air was being forced into this system http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=. Should decrease tomorrow, maybe then.

[floridasun78]

i see looking bit better and was on tue trying build more storm round center let see how look this afternoon

[blp]

Despite the lack of convection the lower level voriticity is still quite strong.



Also, the 500mb level looks more consolidated than last night which was elongated.

00utc


12utc

[Riptide]

93L, is still drawing out moisture from the ITCZ. The SAL should be mostly mixed out by tommorow. Euro on board for something trackable, always a good sign.

[Alyono]

now encountering westerly shear. LLC is west of the convection now

[wxman57]

It appears to be degenerating into an open wave now. Only a tiny swirl of low clouds remains. Development chances maybe 10-20% at most. It's missed its opportunity, I think.

[floridasun78]

It appears to be degenerating into an open wave now. Only a tiny swirl of low clouds remains. Development chances maybe 10-20% at most. It's missed its opportunity, I think.

i disagree looking at sat pic i see spin and i see storms coming back i not calling yet open wave let see nhc say 2pm

[torrea40]

I think next advisory will be.... The circulation of the system is well organized, and the low could develop into a tropical depression today...

[HouTXmetro]

What about the area of convection ahead of 93L? Is that part of the ITCZ and could it help moisten the atmosphere for 93L.

[floridasun78]

by looking this not open wave their spin and storms trying go sound spin here link to see loop and you will see spin and storms trying form in center http://www.ssd.noaa/PS/TROP/floaters/93 ... oater.html look under Dvorak

[Gustywind]

What about the area of convection ahead of 93L? Is that part of the ITCZ and could it help moisten the atmosphere for 93L.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N48W TO 19N51W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS TO THE W-NW OF A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW
CENTERED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N43W. SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND GLOBAL MODEL DATA INDICATE THE WAVE IS WITHIN A 700 MB
TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED WEST OF THE LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MONSOON TROUGH. THE WAVE REMAINS WITHIN THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER
AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS rolling now no longer develops (out through 90 hours) - I would expect the NHC to decrease the chances of development in the next TWO.

[Riptide]

12Z GFS rolling now no longer develops (out through 90 hours) - I would expect the NHC to decrease the chances of development in the next TWO.

It looks like it peaks at TD or low TS status in about 48 hours on the GFS. 1009mb. As always, this could be a sleeper system that blossoms in the sub-tropics.

[Alyono]

its likely dead. Environmental conditions simply down right hostile right now

It's only July however. We should see activity toward the end of August. Indications are that conditions may be quite favorable then

[cycloneye]

its likely dead. Environmental conditions simply down right hostile right now

It's only July however. We should see activity toward the end of August. Indications are that conditions may be quite favorable then

Less dry air?

[KWT]

93L now starting to gain a little latitude, close to 10N. Heading is probably about 280 at a rough uneducated eyeball.

Heading into the jaws of the SAL beast with shear starting to swing round to a NW/W direction...not looking at all good for 93L...

[weathernerdguy]

I would not give up on 93L until it opens into a wave. I've seen these systems limp along for days only to find the right spot and get going. Still some decent convection on the south side away from the dry air. As 93L heads west, it will move over warmer water, this could be the catalyst needed to overcome the dry air. I would say the chances of development are around 50% in the short term. Since 93L has remained shallow, I expect the models to start trending to the left......MGC

The above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.

Alex 2010 was a great example to this.

[TheStormExpert]

Don't really have much to say about this area anymore... IT'S TOAST!