ATL: BERTHA - Models

[USTropics]

Some more spaghetti plots:

[blp]

Looking at the SSD positions today this thing has dipped almost half a degree in latitude. Were any of the models showing this. All I know is tomorrow it better start gaining some latitiude.
29/0545 UTC 9.9N 37.3W T1.0/1.0 93L
29/2345 UTC 9.5N 41.2W T1.0/1.5 93L

[gatorcane]

Seems to me the ECMWF predicted this system the best from the get-go and was never too bullish on this system, until the past couple of runs which got it up to T.S. status briefly.

This past weekend, however, while the GFS was blowing this system up, the ECMWF was showing pretty much what we are seeing now - a wave that moves W or WSW and eventually dies off before the leewards.

[blp]

Seems to me the ECMWF predicted this system the best from the get-go and was never too bullish on this system, until the past couple of runs which got it up to T.S. status briefly.

This past weekend, however, while the GFS was blowing this system up, the ECMWF was showing pretty much what we are seeing now - a wave that moves W or WSW and eventually dies off before the leewards.

Good point Gator and it showed it struggling in this area for several runs.

[Hurricane Alexis]

00z GFS kills it off quickly north of the islands.

[blp]

Amazing how the Euro which once showed nothing then dissipation in the Bahamas now shows it staying intact through the entire run and now the GFS which was the most bullish has significantly backed off looks to open it up north of the islands.

The common theme I see is that the ridge only extends to about 75W. It will most likely feel the weakness even if it is weak system.

[blp]

One thing I have noticed is that 50W is the mark where the models start to change the heading to WNW. It will be interesting to see if that happens later today.

[gatorcane]

Even weaker on the 12Z GFS run...out through 54 hours so far.

[Alyono]

GFS basically does not develop this any more

EC gets it right, but then again, lets not go on praising it.

IT DEVELOPS NOTHING. It is the case of a broken clock being right twice a day

[KWT]

CMC still develops this system on its 12z run and takes it northwards and recurves it. 12z HWRF also still develops, but both models IMO are not doing a great job with the SAL.

[NDG]

12z Euro is even weaker than the last couple of days, barely a tropical from PR to the Bahamas.

[blp]

I never give the NAVGEM much credit but looking through 2 days of runs it actually did quite good with this system. It never really developed it much even when it looked its best.

[gatorcane]

I never give the NAVGEM much credit but looking through 2 days of runs it actually did quite good with this system. It never really developed it much even when it looked its best.

Yeah good point. the NAVGEM has quietly gone "under the radar" with this system but has performed rather well. So what does the latest NAVGEM show?

The 12Z NAVGEM actually brings back the system as a closed weak low (the previous few runs showed 93L opening up into a wave on it's approach to the Leewards) that moves through the Northern Leewards, just North of Puerto Rico, then WNW into the Bahamas and here is how the run ends 180 hours from now:



Loop:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2014073012/navgem_mslp_pcpn_atl.html

[SFLcane]

@BMcNoldy

Consensus track forecasts from last 6 runs consistently going north too soon. #93L has maintained west heading.

[SFLcane]

[Blown Away]

18z...


18z...

[SFLcane]

12z GFS ensembles..

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF position brushing Northern Leewards, 72 hours from now:

[NDG]

Lol, 18z HWRF brings 93L to a hurricane as it approaches the northern Leeward Islands.

[Blown Away]

The global model re curvature occurs 2-3 degrees farther west from 12z to 18z... Keeps inching west with each run.