Caribbean - Central America Weather

[JonathanBelles]

Breaking News= The Gov of PR announced a short time ago that rationing of water in parts of PR will begin on August 6.The time will be of 24 hours one day then water the next and then 24 hours the next day. Hopefully,93L brings rain to the Islands and PR.

Link??

[cycloneye]

Breaking News= The Gov of PR announced a short time ago that rationing of water in parts of PR will begin on August 6.The time will be of 24 hours one day then water the next and then 24 hours the next day. Hopefully,93L brings rain to the Islands and PR.

Link??

Forgot.
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.aspx

[JonathanBelles]

Breaking News= The Gov of PR announced a short time ago that rationing of water in parts of PR will begin on August 6.The time will be of 24 hours one day then water the next and then 24 hours the next day. Hopefully,93L brings rain to the Islands and PR.

Link??

Forgot.
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.aspx

There's still no link there. I don't need a translator either.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014


...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 09.5N45W IS MOVING W-NW 15 KT. THE
LOW LIES ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER THE
SYSTEM LACKS ANY ORGANIZED SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 07N-10N BETWEEN 43W-48W.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

[cycloneye]

Link in Spanish.

http://www.elnuevodia.com/racionamiento ... 24715.html

[Gustywind]

Very interresting to note how.... Cycloneye suffers from the drought as most of the others EC islands! Looks like we may have to wait to see huge amount of water from this one?! Bertha get up!

Tropical Storm Bertha May Still Form in Atlantic This Week

Courtney Spamer

By Courtney Spamer, Meteorologist

July 30, 2014; 1:24 PM
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-n ... l/31213830

The disturbance west of the Cape Verde Islands has potential to be the next named tropical storm in the Atlantic Basin.

The disturbance moved off the coast of Africa this weekend and survived cool waters and dry air thus far this week.

The disturbance is leaving cooler waters, and moving into an area with water temperatures in the lower 80s and lower wind shear, which are favorable for development.

Wind shear is a zone of strong winds at middle levels of the atmosphere that typically blows from the southwest, west or northwest. These winds can cause an organized tropical system to weaken or prevent one from forming in the first place.

According to AccuWeather.com Tropical Expert Dan Kottlowski, the system has a well defined low level circulation center.

"Development is expected to continue through the middle of the week," said Kottlowski early Wednesday morning.

If this system does continue to develop, it would be the second named storm in the Atlantic this season. "We think this could become Tropical Storm Bertha."
However, dry air and Saharan dust just to the north of the system could erode the storm's moisture.

This means the system's full development could be slowed or prevented as high pressure steers the system towards the northern Leeward Islands.

The system is forecast to take a curved, elliptical path around the high pressure area over the Atlantic but that exact path will be dependent on the strength of the system.

"A weaker system will track more to the west before making the curved path, while a stronger tropical storm early on could cause the system to curve east of the Leeward Islands," Kottlowski said.

At this point, for the coming weekend, "the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands are the areas being monitored very closely," Kottlowski added.
There areas could receive heavy rains and gusty winds, depending on the track of the system.

Portions of the Caribbean islands are in need of rain. For example, since January 1, 2014, San Juan, Puerto Rico, with about 23 inches of rain has only received about two-thirds of its average for the year so far. :eek:

The system could track close enough to Bermuda during the middle of next week to bring some rainfall.

[Gustywind]

Tropical Storm Threat: Leeward Islands Could Feel Impacts This Weekend

By Jon Erdman Published: Jul 30, 2014, 10:39 AM EDT weather.com

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hur ... t-20140729

The disturbance, shown at the center right of the satellite image above, has a pronounced spin above the surface, but has yet to produce sufficiently persistent convection (translation: thunderstorms) and a pronounced-enough westerly surface wind to merit classification as a tropical cyclone.

Once those two events occur, the National Hurricane Center will likely begin issuing advisories on what would be Tropical Depression Three.

Forecast: Lesser Antilles This Weekend

First, the disturbance has to overcome some dry air, light wind shear and marginal sea-surface temperatures over the next day or so.

The National Hurricane Center has tentatively scheduled a Thursday afternoon flight into the disturbance, leaving from Christiansted, Henry E. Rohlsen Airport in St. Croix. A NOAA Gulfstream jet is also scheduled to sample the environment around the disturbance Thursday, in the hopes of improving model forecasts of both track and intensity.

Assuming a tropical depression does form, the system is expected to track toward the Lesser Antilles late Friday into the weekend, possibly strengthening into a tropical storm. Its name would be Bertha.
As the system nears the islands, an area of low pressure aloft (called a tropical upper tropospheric trough or TUTT) may begin to interact with potential future tropical cyclone. If Three/Bertha is stronger at that time, the TUTT would pull the system farther north. Conversely, a weaker, less vertically-developed system would not be pulled as far north by the TUTT.

Furthermore, this TUTT may produce wind shear (change in wind direction and/or speed with height) that is hostile for tropical cyclone intensification or development as the system nears the islands.

So, for now, interests in the Lesser Antilles, U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico should monitor the forecast closely for possible impacts this weekend, including at least an increase in showers and squalls.

It is still too soon to forecast any future potential impacts farther downstream, including in the Bahamas, the U.S. or Bermuda.

Incidentally, the average date by which the Atlantic hurricane season's second named storm will have occurred is Aug. 1, so this potential Bertha is right on time, climatologically.

Check back with us at The Weather Channel and weather.com for the latest on this potential tropical threat.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA WILL LINGER NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS CLOSE TO THE LOCAL AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A VERY STRONG TROPICAL
WAVE...LOCATED THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 1300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO
RICO IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AND WILL APPROACH THE
LOCAL AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION OF BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES WERE OBSERVED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY WAS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING.

FOR TOMORROW...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION...BRINGING WITH IT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOCAL REGION. AS THIS SURFACE TROUGH
INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTH...SOME
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED NEAR 1300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON...IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST
AND WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS
TROPICAL WAVE STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE EXPECTED IMPACTS
OVER THE WEEKEND FOR THE LOCAL ISLANDS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN.
HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...MODEL GUIDANCE SEEM TO AGREE A BIT MORE
WITH ONE ANOTHER AND HAS THIS SYSTEM PASSING VERY CLOSE TO THE
NORTHERN USVI. THIS SCENARIO WOULD GIVE NORTHEASTERN PR AND THE
NORTHERN USVI SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW
IN THIS FORECAST AS WE ARE STILL UNSURE OF WHEN WILL CYCLOGENESIS
WILL OCCUR AND HOW IT WILL EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD WITH VCSH...EXCPT FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS PSBL DUE ISOLD-SCT
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF
PR...ENDING ARND 30/21Z. E-SE WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH ISOLD HIGHER
GUSTS NR STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 88 77 87 / 10 20 30 30
STT 78 89 78 89 / 20 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with a well-defined low pressure system
located about 900 miles east of the southern Windward Islands has
changed little over the past several hours. However, environmental
conditions are marginally conducive for the development of this
system into a tropical depression during the next couple of days.
Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this
system as it moves west-northwestward near 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

[img]TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0034 UTC THU JUL 31 2014

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932014) 20140731 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
140731 0000 140731 1200 140801 0000 140801 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.5N 47.9W 11.4N 50.9W 12.5N 53.6W 13.7N 56.7W
BAMD 10.5N 47.9W 11.0N 50.0W 11.7N 52.0W 12.6N 53.9W
BAMM 10.5N 47.9W 11.3N 50.1W 12.3N 52.2W 13.5N 54.4W
LBAR 10.5N 47.9W 11.0N 50.7W 11.7N 53.7W 12.5N 56.7W
SHIP 30KTS 32KTS 37KTS 41KTS
DSHP 30KTS 32KTS 37KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
140802 0000 140803 0000 140804 0000 140805 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.2N 59.7W 18.6N 66.5W 21.9N 72.8W 24.9N 76.4W
BAMD 13.8N 55.9W 16.6N 60.3W 19.5N 65.1W 22.0N 69.1W
BAMM 14.8N 56.7W 17.9N 61.7W 21.1N 66.7W 24.1N 70.1W
LBAR 13.6N 59.8W 17.2N 65.5W 22.4N 70.1W 0.0N 0.0W
SHIP 46KTS 51KTS 54KTS 56KTS
DSHP 46KTS 51KTS 54KTS 56KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.5N LONCUR = 47.9W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 9.8N LONM12 = 44.7W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 9.6N LONM24 = 41.5W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM[/img]

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite data indicate that shower activity has increased a little
in association with a well-defined low pressure system located about
850 miles east of the southern Windward Islands. In addition, winds
to near tropical storm force are occurring over a small area just
north of the center. While environmental conditions are only
marginally conducive for development, any additional increase in
organization could lead to the formation of a tropical depression
or tropical storm during the next day or so. Interests in the
Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system as it
moves west-northwestward near 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
430 AM AST THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW NORTH OF THE AREA WILL RETROGRESS TOWARD THE
BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. INVEST 93L LIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HRS AND MOVE OVR NE PR SAT EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TUTT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WX PATTERN
THROUGH FRI AND MAINTAIN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH THE RISK OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVR INLAND SECTIONS OF PR. INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE FRI AFTERNOON AHEAD OF INVEST 93L WILL RESULT IN A
DECREASE IN AREAL CVRG OF CONVECTION WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS
LIKELY OVER VIEQUES AND ST. CROIX.

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INVEST 93L HAS DEVELOPED SOME DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE LAST 6 HRS AND THIS HAS PROMPTED NHC TO RAISE
THE GENESIS POTENTIAL TO 60% OR LIKELY CATEGORY. ALL GUIDANCE NOW
PRETTY MUCH ONBOARD INDICATING A WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION POSSIBLE WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL PASS OVER
NORTHEAST PR SAT EVENING. AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 0111Z SHOWED A FEW
WIND BARBS IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. EXPECT A SWATH OF HEAVY RAINS ALONG TRACK OF MID-
LEVEL CIRCULATION AFFECTING THE LEEWARDS...USVI AND NORTHEAST PR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. RAINS EXPECTED TO REACH ST. CROIX
BY 12Z SAT AND SPREAD OVER THE ERN THIRD OF PR AROUND MIDDAY SAT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT. A 6-HR PERIOD OF VERY
INTENSE RAIFNALL APPEARS LIKELY OVR THESE AREAS. LATEST GFS
SUGGESTS A SWATH OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WILL AFFECT THE USVI. FOR A
6-HR PERIOD RAINFALL AMOUNTS TYPICALLY AVERAGE AROUND FIVE INCHES
SO THINK A RANGE OF THREE TO SEVEN INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS OVR NE PR/EL YUNQUE
AREA WHERE BEST OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED. REST OF PR
WILL SEE MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN CVRG AND
INTENSITY AFTER 06Z SUN AS SYSTEM DEPARTS AND WINDS AND SFC
CONVERGENCE DIMINISH.

TURNING MUCH DRIER EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS
IN. AREAS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE SUFFICIENT RAINS SAT WILL HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT MON-TUE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE ARE
LIKELY TO BE SOUTHWEST PR.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING
HOURS. THEN...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA FM 31/16-31/22Z W/BRIEF MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PR
AFFECTING MAINLY TJBQ AND TJMZ...VCTS LIKELY AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS.
LOW LEVEL WINDS FM THE SE AT 5-15 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...POSSIBLE TS CONDITIONS SAT-SAT NIGHT AS INVEST 93L
TRACKS WNW AROUND 15 KT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MINIMAL TS CONDITIONS
WITH WINDS 35-40 KT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SIG DRYING EXPECTED OVR VIEQUES AND ST. CROIX FRI
AHEAD OF TROPICAL SYSTEM. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS...THE DRY
AIR IS NOT EXPECTED TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING OVR MAINLAND PR.
FOR THIS REASON ONLY INCLUDED VIEQUES AND ST. CROIX IN A FIRE WX
WATCH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 90 80 / 40 10 10 10
STT 88 81 88 81 / 40 10 0 30

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014


...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N48W MOVING W-NW AT 15 KT. THE
LOW LIES WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS AND CONTINUES TO SHOW A
MARGINALLY IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE PRESENTATION. DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS HOWEVER...A ONCE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
HAS SEEN A BURST OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FORM WITHIN 45
NM OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. IN ADDITION...EARLIER EVENING
ASCAT PASSES AROUND 31/0022 UTC AND 31/0110 UTC INDICATE A 20 TO
30 KT WIND FIELD SURROUNDING THE LOW WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/
WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A well-defined low pressure system located about 650 miles east of
the southern Windward Islands has been producing organized shower
and thunderstorm activity during the past several hours. If this
activity persists, tropical depression or tropical storm advisories
will be initiated later this morning. Interests in the Lesser
Antilles should monitor the progress of this disturbance as it moves
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, and watches or warnings may be
required for some of these islands later today. A Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this
afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A Hurricane Hunter aircraft has recently begun investigating the
low pressure system located about 550 miles east of the southern
Windward Islands. Preliminary reports from the aircraft indicate
that this system is producing winds to near gale force. However,
satellite images indicate that the associated showers and
thunderstorms have diminished significantly since this morning.
Therefore the low currently does not meet the criteria to designate
it as a tropical cyclone. Showers and thunderstorms could
redevelop later today or tonight, which could result in tropical
cyclone formation. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue
to monitor the progress of this disturbance as it moves
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, and watches or warnings may be
required for some of these islands later today or tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[msbee]

Thanks for the updates. I am off island and following reports closely

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
306 PM AST THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW NORTH OF THE AREA WILL RETROGRESS TOWARD THE
BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WILL AFFECT
THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HEAVY SHOWERS WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PUERTO RICO. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AFFECTED THE MUNICIPALITIES BETWEEN VEGA BAJA WEST
THROUGH ARECIBO. RADAR ESTIMATES WERE BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL. THIS ACTIVITY WAS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING. THESE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATED NEAR SUNSET.

FOR TOMORROW...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...AHEAD OF A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WHICH IS LOCATED NEAR 750
MILES SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PER LATEST
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INDICATE
THAT THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED
SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THIS MORNING. THEREFORE THE LOW CURRENTLY DOES
NOT MEET THE CRITERIA TO DESIGNATE IT AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD REDEVELOP LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT,
WHICH COULD RESULT IN TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. RESIDENTS AND
VISITOR IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. STAY TUNED FOR
LATEST INFORMATION ON THE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA FM 31/16-31/22Z W/BRIEF MVFR CIGS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF PR AFFECTING MAINLY TJBQ AND TJMZ...WILL KEEP VCTS AT
THE REST OF THE TERMINALS. LOW LEVEL WINDS FM THE SE AT 5-15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 19 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR LOW HUMIDITIES AND STRONG
WINDS FOR VIEQUES AND SAINT CROIX.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 80 82 / 10 10 10 70
STT 81 88 81 81 / 10 0 30 70

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
415 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft has continued to investigate the
low pressure system located about 500 miles east of the Windward
Islands. Observations from the aircraft indicate that this system
is producing winds of up to 40 to 45 mph in the northern portion of
the circulation. Showers and thunderstorms could redevelop over
the low tonight or Friday, which could result in tropical cyclone
formation. Regardless of development, winds of gale force are
likely to spread across portions of the Lesser Antilles beginning
early Friday. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue
to monitor the progress of this disturbance as it moves
west-northwestward near 20 mph, and watches or warnings may be
required for some of these islands later tonight or Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

Up to 80%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft this afternoon and
evening investigated the well-defined low pressure system located
about 350 miles east-southeast of Barbados, and found surface winds
of 40 to 45 mph across the northern and eastern portions of the
circulation. Showers and thunderstorms have increased east of the
center during the past couple of hours, and if this development
trend continues a tropical storm could form later tonight or early
Friday. Regardless of development, gale-force winds are likely to
spread across portions of the central Lesser Antilles beginning by
midday Friday. Interests in these areas should continue to monitor
the progress of this disturbance as it moves west-northwestward near
20 mph, since watches or warnings could be required for some of
these islands later tonight or Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1007 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 11N53W...OR 500 NM E OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...IS MOVING W-NW 15 KT. A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
MEASURED 40 KT GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
LOW. THE LOW PRESENTLY LACKS DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER
THUS WAS NOT NAMED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ONLY A SMALL 15 NM RADIUS
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOW 90 NM E OF THE
CENTER. DRY SAHARAN DUST IS NOTED NEAR THE LOW CENTER. THE LOW
DOES HAVE HOWEVER A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION WITHIN 48
HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BEGINNING EARLY
FRIDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.