ATL: BERTHA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Nimbus]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with a well-defined low pressure system
located about 900 miles east of the southern Windward Islands has
changed little over the past several hours. However, environmental
conditions are marginally conducive for the development of this
system into a tropical depression during the next couple of days.
Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this
system as it moves west-northwestward near 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart





Small circulation with enough convection to keep it going. As a weak system it might follow the BAM Shallow into the Caribbean. Wonder what the shear would be like there?

[tolakram]

IR loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=10&lon=-45&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&type=Animation&quality=95&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5

with color

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=10&lon=-45&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&type=Animation&quality=95&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=5

[Ntxw]

Small circulation with enough convection to keep it going. As a weak system it might follow the BAM Shallow into the Caribbean. Wonder what the shear would be like there?

The Caribbean is a graveyard and has been most of this year. 20-40 knots of wind shear is currently present in the central Carib and may expand to the east. 93L must avoid it and traverse along the islands and to the north. It will not survive any kind of trek into the Carib.

[weathernerdguy]

anyone remember when that most models (GFS) had Thursday as a favorable day for invest 93L?

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track.

AL, 93, 2014073100, , BEST, 0, 105N, 479W, 30, 1010, LO

[hurrtracker79]

Hot tower building just E of the LLC. Sat trends are getting interesting, Taking advantage of DMAX? Little more favorable environment?? Will convection wrap around. We shall see tonight.

[TheStormExpert]

Looks to be opening up into a wave despite the increase in convection.

[NDG]

00z Best Track.

AL, 93, 2014073100, , BEST, 0, 105N, 479W, 30, 1010, LO

Based on the current Best Track position compared to the last 18z Best Track, 93L is only tracking at 17.95 mph/15.6 knots p/hr, not nearly as fast as some might have been thinking.

[Bocadude85]

Looks to be opening up into a wave despite the increase in convection.

Doesn't look like it has opened up to me. Care to explain why you say it's opening up to a wave?

[Alyono]

hasnt opened up

that said, the convection needs to persist. If the convection were to suddenly collapse, that could be the end as there would be significant surface divergence

[NDG]

Looks to be opening up into a wave despite the increase in convection.

It is still a closed low pressure.

[cycloneye]

Looks to be opening up into a wave despite the increase in convection.

It is still a closed low pressure.

Recon will confirm if is closed or not on Thursday afternoon.

[caribepr]

I was just thinking that as 93L approaches the TUTT it might help it fire up some convection, good for the Islands rainwise.

and, as water rationing becomes close to happening, rain would be a very good thing!

[tropicwatch]

According to surface data still a good circulation.

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wi ... 7,3.05,797

Source | GFS / NCEP / US National Weather Service

[SouthDadeFish]

This is actually probably the best it has been for at least 24 hours. Convection starting to burst pretty close to the LLC. Persistence is the key here.

[TheStormExpert]

Looks to be opening up into a wave despite the increase in convection.

It is still a closed low pressure.

Recon will confirm if is closed or not on Thursday afternoon.

It just looks IMO like it has become somewhat elongated and less symmetrical once obtaining it's current convection, it has also seemed to slow down slightly.

[caribepr]

This is actually probably the best it has been for at least 24 hours. Convection starting to burst pretty close to the LLC. Persistence is the key here.

Does that mean we'll at least get some rain around here?

[TheStormExpert]

This is actually probably the best it has been for at least 24 hours. Convection starting to burst pretty close to the LLC. Persistence is the key here.

This is the best it's looked in 48hrs.! Though I wouldn't be suprised if it suddenly collapsed again, you never know.

[gatorcane]

Saved IR image. Some encouraging signs - convection blowup near center and some thickening of the the clouds especially on the eastern side of the system indicating some increased moisture - but, as others have mentioned, persistence is the key:

[tropicwatch]

It also looks like it is above 10N and now the dry air appears to be receding and the Caribbean looks to be lessening in the shear category.