Tropical wave in Central Caribbean

[Hurricaneman]

none of the models develop it but who knows this could be one that sneaks under the radar

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014


A TROPICAL WAVE IS INTRODUCED ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA.
THE WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N16W TO 10N18W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. A
MOIST AREA IS NOTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. SOME LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS ALSO NOTED ON THE
BASE OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-
10N BETWEEN 14W-20W.

[TheStormExpert]

I'd say with 93L struggling for it's own life, this very little to no chance of doing anything.

[rolltide]

It does have a nice spin to it this afternoon. I don't see any model support but I'll be keeping an eye on it.

[Hurricaneman]

It does have a nice spin to it this afternoon. I don't see any model support but I'll be keeping an eye on it.

it looks like the GFS likes this for the next few days as a weak 1010mb low and then dissipates it later as I believe dry air and SAL get involved, but the fact that it shows up as a sharp wave as it transverses towards the lesser Antilles is something to keep an eye on in future model runs.

The one thing that could cause this to develop kind of like 93L ahead of it is it stays in the ITCZ and thats not modeled to happen so it as mentioned in the OP is this may slip under the radar and be a surprise

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Gustywind]

This time this twave have a low attached with it... but dry dry air continues to interact with this feature.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N27W TO 10N27W AND IS MOVING W
15 KT. A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE
WHICH REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. CONVECTION
REMAINS LIMITED DUE TO THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER COVERING MUCH OF
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...HOWEVER ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
LOCATED AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS TO 30W FROM 09N-12N.

[gatorcane]

Tropical cyclone formation probability for the next 24 hours for this wave. Vis loops shows a pretty good spin to that wave with a decent convection canopy, at least for the moment before Uncle SAL has anything to say about it!

[Hammy]

Given how things are looking it's a bit surprising it's not on the hurricane center's map yet, at least mentioned at all.

[TheStormExpert]

Maybe during the next 24hrs. they'll mention it with 0% chance of development.

[Frank2]

Really not very much in the Atlantic this morning - 93L is about done and the disturbance behind it no longer looks impressive. In the past hour TWC was showing the difference in the amount of mid-level dry air in the Tropical Atlantic during 2005 as compared today - night and day...

Frank

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N33W TO 9N29W MOVING W AT 10 KT.
A 1010 MB LOW IS LOCATED ON THE BASE OF THE WAVE AXIS AT 10N32W.
A MOIST AREA IS NOTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS N AND W OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE. A SMALL 30 NM RADIUS AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS NOW 120 NM SE OF THE CENTER.

[colbroe]

Looks like this wave is making a come back,convection is on the increase,any thoughts.

[AJC3]

Looks like this wave is making a come back,convection is on the increase, any thoughts.

Huge mass of SAL/dry air to its north. None of the globals do anything at all with it. Doesn't look like much - doubt it will develop

[baytownwx]

Looks like this wave is making a come back,convection is on the increase,any thoughts.

It would need to have favorable conditions and that's just not the case right now. Some vorticity is there, but on the weak side and elongated.

And yes Sal is there too, but maybe less of it than what Bertha had? But with that tongue of SAL in front of it and just overall a stable atmosphere, the most I see it doing is just cycling of up and down convection.

[TJRE]

Sat views tonight.. would make you believe this area has the goods
Is 94L on deck?

TPW is loaded


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Hurricaneman]

I think this might have a chance if it doesn't run into SA but it would have to stay south until the central Caribbean to do anything IMO

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Sanibel]

Might be a late bloomer. Hard to tell. Could be too close to Bertha.


There's another weak wave that just jumped off Africa.

[Steve820]

It probably won't do much, but IMO there's a chance we could see something in the long run out of this wave. Hopefully it develops sometime in the future!

[Hurricaneman]

This is starting to catch my attention, while its not modeled to develop the area which is near the windward islands has moist air to work with and low shear in the Caribbean so this area may need to be monitored for convective persistence

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[floridasun78]

This is starting to catch my attention, while its not modeled to develop the area which is near the windward islands has moist air to work with and low shear in the Caribbean so this area may need to be monitored for convective persistence

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

what area talk about? one close leedwards islands?