Texas Summer - 2014

[Rgv20]

Have not posted in a long while, After a relative cool start to summer at least to the standards of Deep South Texas this past 2 weeks old man summer has a nice grip in my area.Past daily high temperatures in the 104-106 range with morning lows 78-79 I want winter already!!

NWS Brownsville afternoon discussion....Could be some rain in the cards for Sunday!

THE SAME EXISTS FOR SUNDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY A LITTLE MORE DIFFUSE.
GFS/ECMWF SHOW BETTER DIFFERENTIAL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION IN
THE 300/500MB LAYER THOUGH AS THE CENTER OF THE NOW SEMI-CLOSED
UPPER LOW BEGINS TO RETROGRADE SOUTWESTWARD. KEPT 30 PCT POPS DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN MOST AREAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY. SOME INDICATIONS THAT AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL PUSH
IN SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND FURTHER JUICE UP THE ATMOSPHERE. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERNS
TRADITIONALLY PRODUCE SOME OF OUR MORE ROBUST SUMMER THUNDERSTORM
EVENTS AND THE ADDITION OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERLY WAVE MAKE FOR AN INTERESTING /POTENTIAL/ COMBINATION. WILL
BE MONITORING CLOSELY.

[texas1836]

This is exciting news, coming into August. Though it hasn't been enough rain to fill the lakes, it's helped us not have to water the lawn in over a month. It seems these cool fronts are coming in every other week, I hope more are on the way.

[Portastorm]

Those of us hoping for an inch or two of rain may have to curb our enthusiasm. Several afternoon forecast discussions from Texas-based NWS offices referenced the models showing faster movement of the this week's front and associated shortwaves. The end result is less rain than predicted a few days ago. The latest QPF maps out of the NOAA Weather Prediction Center have cut precip totals in half for much of central/south central Texas.

I know, I know ... "Hey Portastorm, just be happy with any rain and cooler temps in late July."

[texas1836]

I can accept that Portastorm, any amount of rain is good rain.

[weatherdude1108]

I agree large QPF is a treat for late July going into August, though it is a little depressing to see this morning's EWX discussion, given the multi-day hype over what was thought to be a multi-day event. But the front is speeding up in the models, hence the collective frustration regarding our water supply situation.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

It's always like that. They hype it a week or so in advance, only to have barely a sprinkle when it gets here.

I've also seen the other side of it where there was absolutely no rain in the forecast for the day, and we ended up getting an inch or two or rain that day. Ya' never really know what you'll get.

The field has gotten a lot more accurate over the years, but Meteorology is still far from an exact science. I'm always reminded of that. It'll be a while before we can predict when the rain starts and stops to the second. It reminds me of the Back to the Future II scene with the doc when he and Marty get out of the car. Marty says, "Right now? It's pouring rain!" The doc looks up, looks at his watch perpelexed, and shouts expectantly, "Wait five more seconds!" Then he says, "Right on the tick. Too bad the Post Office isn't as efficient as the weather service."

http://youtu.be/rUGZf_lvumA

[Ntxw]

GFS blew today's forecast for DFW. Had mid to upper 90s and we only managed an 85 for high and struggling near 80 since early afternoon. Clouds and light rain definitely made havoc on the prediction.

We're going to finish July colder than last year. Could match 2007, maybe 2004. Coolest since the early 90s was 2002 but that won't be easy to match unless lows really dip. Same data comparatively for Austin.

[aggiecutter]

Looks like no summer this year:

[Ntxw]

Looks like no summer this year:

CFSv2 brings cool shot after cool shot next month (this month technically since July ends this week) aligned right at the Central CONUS

[Tireman4]

I hear Wxman57 is migrating South. Ha he ha

[Ntxw]

I hear Wxman57 is migrating South. Ha he ha

Houston is experiencing an unusually cool summer. He's been miserable this year, 2014 as a whole has been a year he would rather forget I'm sure. It may get worse for him before it gets better

Is this not astonishing or what? Post 2000? What decade is this? 70s, 80s? 1900s?!

[texas1836]

After this cool front comes through North Texas, are there any other signs of more cool fronts building keeping August below average this Summer?

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

After this cool front comes through North Texas, are there any other signs of more cool fronts building keeping August below average this Summer?

None not one single one!!!

[texas1836]

Thanks for being such an "up" person.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Im ready to get this winter going! Interesting time to be a weather nut. Possible decadal flip, this winter could be epic for us.


Im loving that we are having a good wet summer though. Always a worry that drought starts in the summer.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

:uarrow: Thanks for being such an "up" person.

Oh did you by chance happen to see what I posted in the Canadian severe weather thread? Someone(s) have a real twisted sense of humour.

Am praying Houston and Texas has a heck of a lot of moisture available this winter when one of your highly sought after cold front heads your way!

Best stock on shovels, if I have my way, folks!!!!

[South Texas Storms]

I'm hopeful that south and central Texas can get some rain from the weak cold front that is expected to move through later this week. GFS is indicating that up to .50 inch of rain could fall across the area. I will take every drop we can get!

[TheProfessor]

Im ready to get this winter going! Interesting time to be a weather nut. Possible decadal flip, this winter could be epic for us.


Im loving that we are having a good wet summer though. Always a worry that drought starts in the summer.

Me too, I'm hoping for a big Snowstorm from Gainesville to Corpus. I'm also hoping for it to be cool during 2 a days this year too.

[texas1836]

It was a good night in McKinney with 2.01 inches of rain and a pleasent 71' this morning. If Summers could be like this every year, I'd be a happy man.

[Ntxw]

It was a good night in McKinney with 2.01 inches of rain and a pleasent 71' this morning. If Summers could be like this every year, I'd be a happy man.

That is really good news! Denton, Collin, Northeastern Dallas, Rockwall counties have picked up anywhere between 1-3 inches of rain the past 24 hours. Nearby, once again DFW officially recorded a whopping trace. It has been an extremely unlikely location for rainfall as areas all around it have picked up quite a bit the past 60-90 days. According to the AHPS rainfall total for that span, DFW airport is in a small bubble with around 10" while most areas around in all directions are closer to 15-20 which is closer to the average than the 10 inch deficit officially.

[weatherdude1108]

That's awesome texas1836! I am with you! I dream of those Summers. Hoping we can share in that joy down here in central/south- central Texas over the next day or so with the liquid gold. After that, looks dry. But, I am looking forward to EARLY AUGUST highs in the LOW 90s and lows in the LOW 70s .