ATL: BERTHA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

12z SHIPS diagnosis shows that shear is still from NNW direction which usually means dry sinking air, I still think that once it starts bumping into the more SW UL diverging winds later tonight into tomorrow we may see more convection pop up around the LLC, if it still alive by then.

[RL3AO]

Wow that center is moving fast in those last few frames.

[Blown Away]

Getting more convection popping...

[HurricaneBelle]

From the NHC Twitter feed:

Natl Hurricane Ctr ‏@NHC_Atlantic now

NHC will not start advisories on Atlantic disturbance this morning. Thunderstorm activity too limited.

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status ... 5353750528

[RL3AO]

See who needs the FTP site. We have social media.

[tropicwatch]

They might change there minds about advisories once the planes get in there.

[AJC3]

They might change there minds about advisories once the planes get in there.

This is extremely unlikely. While the circulation/low level vort center is certainly vigorous, the reason they are giving for no upgrade is lack of central convection, which has been easily seen in satellite imagery over the past couple of days. So, when and if recon goes in today, it won't tell them a thing about that paucity of convection, only the structure of the circulation. Unless central convection increases, which seems unlikely at the moment, the system will remain an unnamed tropical low or disturbance.

[Alyono]

I did not understand increasing the chances to 70 percent. This was always a convective issue, and the convection was in a decreasing trend this morning

[gatorcane]

A look at the dry air situation around 93L, saved image loop - yellow is the dry air. Looks like a big clump of dry air off to the NW:

[Hammy]

Looks like this probably missed its very last opportunity to get classified, as it's headed into a higher shear environment from hear on.

[abajan]

I did not understand increasing the chances to 70 percent. This was always a convective issue, and the convection was in a decreasing trend this morning

I never understood it either.

[NDG]

I did not understand increasing the chances to 70 percent. This was always a convective issue, and the convection was in a decreasing trend this morning

Probably because of this, during the night convection formed much closer to the LLC but since 12z it has definitely dried up big time.

[MGC]

Only way 93L gets upgraded today is if convection builds near the center, or if recon finds TS force winds....MGC


The above is the opinion of MGC and not a forecast.

[Rail Dawg]

Still thinking this is going to go to Depression shortly.

[Blown Away]

Currently heading @280' and needs to be @295' to be on track with the models now. That's why I think the 0-72 hour track will continue pushing westward. JHMO

[underthwx]

Still thinking this is going to go to Depression shortly.

Agree

[alienstorm]

Swirl completed exposed and northerly windshear. Dont see it developing and wont be surprise if it just winds down to an open wave. Too much dry air

[SouthDadeFish]

Really starting to get ragged now.... Yuck.

[TheStormExpert]

Northerly shear is killing what potential 93L still had. R.I.P. 93L, you won't be missed!

[somethingfunny]

Just by looking at this system I could tell you that it's not going to be upgraded today...

But recon is going in there, and they'll probably find a 35kt wind somewhere in those thunderstorms displaced to the southeast of the center, and this will be Bertha today and watches/warnings will be posted for the Islands over this piece of garbage system.

If there were no recon, there's no way a system thus messy would be getting upgraded today. I'm not always a fan of flying recon.