ATL: BERTHA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

12z Best Track:

AL, 93, 2014073112, , BEST, 0, 110N, 514W, 30, 1010, LO

One thing we can take back from the recon's flight is that the pressure was lower than estimated, they have actually gone back and lowered it to 1008mb on their 12z Best Track, so is not a total waste

AL, 93, 2014073112, , BEST, 0, 110N, 514W, 30, 1008, LO

[NDG]

Actually a pressure of 1007mb found, with Gale Force winds. Not bad for a naked swirl.

190400 1143N 05317W 9772 00264 0072 +240 +170 111017 018 022 000 00
190430 1145N 05317W 9773 00265 0073 +238 +171 106021 022 023 001 00
190500 1147N 05317W 9769 00267 0073 +238 +172 107025 026 023 000 00
190530 1148N 05318W 9769 00268 0074 +240 +171 108028 029 026 001 00
190600 1150N 05318W 9773 00267 0074 +240 +171 110031 032 028 000 00
190630 1152N 05318W 9767 00272 0075 +237 +172 111033 035 031 000 00
190700 1153N 05319W 9773 00267 0076 +231 +174 112036 038 031 003 00
190730 1155N 05319W 9769 00271 0077 +232 +171 110039 040 032 001 00
190800 1157N 05319W 9771 00271 0079 +228 +170 110041 043 035 003 00

[wxman57]

Just received a sounding from the G-IV near Barbados. There's little moisture available above around 15,000 ft. Very dry air in the path of 93L.

[Gustywind]

12z Best Track:

AL, 93, 2014073112, , BEST, 0, 110N, 514W, 30, 1010, LO

One thing we can take back from the recon's flight is that the pressure was lower than estimated, they have actually gone back and lowered it to 2008mb on their 12z Best Track, so is not a total waste

AL, 93, 2014073112, , BEST, 0, 110N, 514W, 30, 1008, LO

2008 mb you mean 1008 mb, surely a mistake

[AdamFirst]

Just received a sounding from the G-IV near Barbados. There's little moisture available above around 15,000 ft. Very dry air in the path of 93L.

Too early in the year for a Cape Verde style system?

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014


...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 11N51W...OR 560 NM E OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...IS MOVING W-NW 15 KT. THE LOW CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS
OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS MARKED BY A TIGHT
SWIRL OF CLOUDS IN EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER IN
THE S SEMICIRCLE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS

[NDG]

12z Best Track:

AL, 93, 2014073112, , BEST, 0, 110N, 514W, 30, 1010, LO

One thing we can take back from the recon's flight is that the pressure was lower than estimated, they have actually gone back and lowered it to 2008mb on their 12z Best Track, so is not a total waste

AL, 93, 2014073112, , BEST, 0, 110N, 514W, 30, 1008, LO

2008 mb you mean 1008 mb, surely a mistake

Thanks for catching that, maybe because it looks more like a 2008mb dry LLC, lol.

[Weatherboy1]

Another potential system done in by dry air? Losing count of these the past few years. Lol. We will have to see if convection can refire ... But the clock is ticking. Worth pointing out that IF 93 were to get its act together, many of the models have shifted quite a bit west over the last day or so. Will have to see if that trend persists.

Just my opinion, as always!

[cycloneye]

NDG,if convection can fire around the center tonight,it would be upgraded to TS with those winds.

[NDG]

NDG,if convection can fire around the center tonight,it would be upgraded to TS with those winds.

Yeap, I agree. But we know that LLCs don't survive that long being convection free, it needs to refire some convection tonight for it to stay alive.

[Airboy]

Looking at sat visible I can see an increasing tendency of clouds wrapping around the center, even if it a thin weak layer.

[gatorcane]

Saved image with SST overlay - some warmer SSTs ahead but will the upper environment cooperate?

[Gustywind]

NDG,if convection can fire around the center tonight,it would be upgraded to TS with those winds.

Yeap, I agree. But we know that LLCs don't survive that long being convection free, it needs to refire some convection tonight for it to stay alive.

100% agree with that good call because it should be a 3008 mb if it was more wet !

[tropicwatch]

Somebody put some clothes on that thing

[stormhunter7]

Its interesting because the AF plane is flying at what? 1,000kft and having flight level winds of 40-55mph and SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind 36 knots (~ 41.4 mph) to the NE of center. The only thing it lacks is mid and upper level support or deep convection.... which will see how dry it is soon with G-IV about to head that direction.

[Hammy]

I'm hoping for some sort of 5pm update to the outlook to get their thoughts on this now that the plane has investigated.

[Blown Away]

[RL3AO]

This is clearly not a tropical cyclone. The issue of the islands facing TS force winds is another issue that the NHC is working on. In a few years this situation may be handled differently but right now its not a TC.

[NDG]

Maybe we should call 93L "African Dustdevil Bertha"?

[Hurricane_Luis]

If the NHC did assigning this TD 3 or TS Bertha. People would say why have they gave a naked swirl of cloud a TS or TD label. So in my opinion they have a bit of a dilemma. To pull the trigger or not is the question.