ATL: BERTHA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheAustinMan]

SPIE imagery of 93L out in the central Atlantic.

[torrea40]

Well, well......... 1007 mlb ...... and winds 50 mph ..........


Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 31st day of the month at 20:14Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 301)

Mission Purpose: Investigate third suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 1

Observation Number: 12
A. Time of Center Fix: 31st day of the month at 19:59:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 11°43'N 53°36'W (11.7167N 53.6W)
B. Center Fix Location: 417 miles (671 km) to the ESE (103°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 36 nautical miles (41 statute miles) to the ENE (70°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 118° at 45kts (From the ESE at ~ 51.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 43 nautical miles (49 statute miles) to the ENE (60°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1007mb (29.74 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 306m (1,004ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 304m (997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 7 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 45kts (~ 51.8mph) which was observed 43 nautical miles (49 statute miles) to the ENE (60°) from the flight level center at 19:44:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 fe

[floridasun78]

SPIE imagery of 93L out in the central Atlantic.

thatvcool radar were find it?

[Blown Away]

Does this count?

[wxman57]

I believe that the recon plane was encountering strong low-level winds associated with the SAL outbreak just north of the center rather than winds circulating around the weak center.

[floridasun78]

could we bare Bertha? please put cloth on this pg site

[hurricanefloyd5]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
415 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft has continued to investigate the
low pressure system located about 500 miles east of the Windward
Islands. Observations from the aircraft indicate that this system
is producing winds of up to 40 to 45 mph in the northern portion of
the circulation. Showers and thunderstorms could redevelop over
the low tonight or Friday, which could result in tropical cyclone
formation. Regardless of development, winds of gale force are
likely to spread across portions of the Lesser Antilles beginning
early Friday. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue
to monitor the progress of this disturbance as it moves
west-northwestward near 20 mph, and watches or warnings may be
required for some of these islands later tonight or Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Pasch

[wxman57]

http://i59.tinypic.com/27ww3t.jpg
Does this count?

The center is 80 miles NE of that shower.

[gatorcane]

70% still. One thing to think about is that the ECMWF is not killing this off which says lot in my opinion.

[floridasun78]

i see hurr hunter found 1007 low pressure google earth put circle in that area so no question this not open wave some here saying this is open wave that not

[TheAustinMan]

(Image here was redacted)
SPIE imagery of 93L out in the central Atlantic.

thatvcool radar were find it?

On the left toolbar under "SPIE IMAGERY CHANNEL 1" at http://www.barbadosweather.org/barbados-weather-radar.php

[floridasun78]

(Image here was redacted)
SPIE imagery of 93L out in the central Atlantic.

thatvcool radar were find it?

On the left toolbar under "SPIE IMAGERY CHANNEL 1" at http://www.barbadosweather.org/barbados-weather-radar.php

ty

[Hammy]

70% still. One thing to think about is that the ECMWF is not killing this off which says lot in my opinion.

I'm beginning to wonder at this point if we're going to end up just having an intense naked swirl just tracking across the western Atlantic for a week and never getting upgraded...

[TheStormExpert]

70% still. One thing to think about is that the ECMWF is not killing this off which says lot in my opinion.

It's now obvious all along they have kind of been hugging the Euro more so than the other models.

[wxman57]

12Z EC has peak intensity occurring in 6 days (next Wednesday at 18Z) as the center is about 700 miles east of Delaware and accelerating to the NNE (1007mb).

[gatorcane]

[RL3AO]

93L is skimming south of an area of very dry air with fairly high winds. IMO much of that 45kt wind the hunters are finding is not the tropical low, but apart of the SAL push.

[Blown Away]

Some low clouds wrapping in... Nice little circulation...

[blp]

70% still. One thing to think about is that the ECMWF is not killing this off which says lot in my opinion.

Gator I think you hit the nail on the head. Out of respect for the Euro, I think the NHC kept it there and if it that is the case I don't blame them but for this to survive it needs a miracle IMO.

[Evil Jeremy]

What's the longest a system has been consistently Code Red in the TWOs? 93L has been red in the 48 hour period since Tuesday, 2am, all except for being Orange last night at 8pm before going Red again at 2am today.