ATL: BERTHA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

The S2K map no longer shows 93L - perhaps that's tomorrow's news today : )

When a invest at the graphic is gone means two things or will be upgraded (Graphic cheater) or they ended it to the archieves. In this case I go with the first.

[Rail Dawg]

Goes to show that cyclones do not live by spin alone.

Exactly. I have gone to bed assured a developing system was going to pass away quietly only to wake up and issue TS warnings.

I've made all the mistakes.

[gatorcane]

Saved WV loop floater where you can see the dry air slowly getting mixed out...less yellows..convection now slowly on the increase. Good signs...

[TheStormExpert]

The S2K map no longer shows 93L - perhaps that's tomorrow's news today : )

When a invest at the graphic is gone means two things or will be upgraded (Graphic cheater) or they ended it to the archieves. In this case I go with the first.

It's kind of see to see the NHC upgrade this mess of a system, but it's obviously for the best knowing it is headed toward land masses within the next 24-48hrs.

For sure looking like this, this would not be upgraded a few days ago.

[Evil Jeremy]

Against all odds, looks like were going to have a TS tonight.

[Frank2]

True gatorcane, but look at that cloud motion in the upper left corner...

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1007 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 11N53W...OR 500 NM E OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...IS MOVING W-NW 15 KT. A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
MEASURED 40 KT GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
LOW. THE LOW PRESENTLY LACKS DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER
THUS WAS NOT NAMED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ONLY A SMALL 15 NM RADIUS
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOW 90 NM E OF THE
CENTER. DRY SAHARAN DUST IS NOTED NEAR THE LOW CENTER. THE LOW
DOES HAVE HOWEVER A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION WITHIN 48
HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BEGINNING EARLY
FRIDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

[northjaxpro]

True gatorcane, but look at that cloud motion in the upper left corner...

shear ahead

[hurricanekid416]

This thing is fighting and it would be amazing if it became a TS

[Ntxw]

This thing is fighting and it would be amazing if it became a TS

Indeed it is fighting and would be one of the ugliest looking TS's I've ever seen! A lot of shear at the islands, 20-30 knots.

[Gustywind]

Always in fight and surely always in comeback that's 93L in the party...

31/2345 UTC 12.2N 54.5W T1.0/1.0 93L
31/1745 UTC 11.4N 52.9W TOO WEAK 93L
31/1145 UTC 11.0N 51.4W T1.0/1.0 93L
30/1745 UTC 10.0N 46.4W TOO WEAK 93L

[Hurricaneman]

The way I see it it has been a TS since 2AM and while it looks like garbage it still qualifies but it has an up hill battle to fight with the shear ahead of it but once it gets out of that shear zone it could hold a surprise for the Bahamas and or Florida and the SEUS

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[gatorcane]

True gatorcane, but look at that cloud motion in the upper left corner...

Yeah no doubt shear awaits and that is probably why the global models have really backed off on any significant development as it heads WNW through that shear.

[hurricanekid416]

The way I see it it has been a TS since 2AM and while it looks like garbage it still qualifies but it has an up hill battle to fight with the shear ahead of it but once it gets out of that shear zone it could hold a surprise for the Bahamas and or Florida and the SEUS

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

It may have been a TS a few days ago then weakened to a Td then became a swirl then regenerated to a TS last night and then weakened and now may be a TS again

[TheStormExpert]

True gatorcane, but look at that cloud motion in the upper left corner...

Yeah no doubt shear awaits and that is probably why the global models have really backed off on any significant development as it heads WNW through that shear.

It's just one unfavorable condition after another! (SST's Dry Air/SAL Shear)

[TheStormExpert]

The way I see it it has been a TS since 2AM and while it looks like garbage it still qualifies but it has an up hill battle to fight with the shear ahead of it but once it gets out of that shear zone it could hold a surprise for the Bahamas and or Florida and the SEUS

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

It may have been a TS a few days ago then weakened to a Td then became a swirl then regenerated to a TS last night and then weakened and now may be a TS again

I guess you could understand then why the NHC would not upgrade.

[northjaxpro]

True gatorcane, but look at that cloud motion in the upper left corner...

Yeah no doubt shear awaits and that is probably why the global models have really backed off on any significant development as it heads WNW through that shear.

That shear zone is really going to make it extremely difficult for whatever becomes of 93L over the next 48-73 hours. I'd be very surprised to see this system survive through that shear, especially given its current state. But, this is the tropics, and we always must keep our guard up of course.

[Alyono]

somehow, SHIPS is saying low to moderate shear through 120 hours

[Hurricaneman]

True gatorcane, but look at that cloud motion in the upper left corner...

Yeah no doubt shear awaits and that is probably why the global models have really backed off on any significant development as it heads WNW through that shear.

It's just one unfavorable condition after another! (SST's Dry Air/SAL Shear)

I firmly believe that this will struggle through the shear zone but once this gets north of Hispaniola that's when I believe this could pull a surprise but as we all know the conditions a few days from now may become unfavorable even in that area but the Euro is starting to show a very interesting scenario of development of this in the Bahamas due to shear drop off and more moisture to work with

Right now it may be doing just enough to become Bertha sometime in the next 24hrs

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[RL3AO]

somehow, SHIPS is saying low to moderate shear through 120 hours

I don't get how it came to that conclusion. The LL easterlies are 30+kt in the Caribbean.