ATL: BERTHA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheStormExpert]

IMO the NHC is looking for any slight persistent convection to upgrade 93L, I think we will see an upgrade within the next few hours... Question is will the 5 day point be a remnant low, TS, or hurricane symbol??

Probably a depression symbol as thats all most models are predicting as of now but things could change as a good sotrm to look at in terms of similar look would be Danny in 2009

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

A hurricane by far seems out of the question for the next 5 days.

[TheStormExpert]

I'm going to go down with my no-development ship if necessary and say this won't be upgraded until we have actual word from the hurricane center, as it still looks pretty pathetic on satellite and if several better looking storms weren't upgraded, I doubt this will be.

They never upgraded 90L in the BoC, so why upgrade this crappy looking mess? Even TS bonnie(2010) looked better than this!

[NDG]

Though some convection has returned close to the LLC I would not doubt if they do not upgrade it tonight, they might wait to see if it maintains through the night and if there is any upgrade might be at 5 AM, IMO.

[colbroe]

It will be named at 11 o'clock ,they have removed 93l from the sight ,this is a good indicator it will be named.

[Hurricaneman]

It will be named at 11 o'clock ,they have removed 93l from the sight ,this is a good indicator it will be named.

either that or its a S2K glitch but frankly its probably organized just enough to initiate advisories but they are the experts so if they say its not a tropical cyclone then its not

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Alyono]

upgrade likely based upon new model guidance

[tropicwatch]

I would be surprised at an upgrade. For the first time there is surface wind indication that the low is not closed anymore.

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wi ... 0,4.70,796

There is convection building but without a closed low I don't know why they would upgrade at this point.

[baytownwx]

To my un-trained eye it, it looks to be having a more northerly component to movement the last few frames.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=12&lon=-44&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&type=Animation&quality=95&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=5

[NDG]

I would be surprised at an upgrade. For the first time there is surface wind indication that the low is not closed anymore.

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wi ... 0,4.70,796

There is convection building but without a closed low I don't know why they would upgrade at this point.

How reliable is this site? I really question it because looking at shortwave IR satellite loop it still looks closed to me and with convection building close to the COC I doubt that it has open up that quickly especially since the hurricane hunter found a very organized closed circulation just a few hours ago.

[Alyono]

I do not believe they SHOULD upgrade

But then after the TWO, I expected one. I really hope they change their mind

[SouthDadeFish]

Deep convection beginning to fire quite near the center. Colder cloud tops should expand over the next few hours, helping to maintain the surface circulation.

[Bocadude85]

To my un-trained eye it, it looks to be having a more northerly component to movement the last few frames.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=12&lon=-44&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&type=Animation&quality=95&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=5

Convection is firing very close to the center now, wonder if it will persist and expand.

[Hurricaneman]

I would be surprised at an upgrade. For the first time there is surface wind indication that the low is not closed anymore.

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wi ... 0,4.70,796

There is convection building but without a closed low I don't know why they would upgrade at this point.

I can look at the low level clouds and see that there is most certainly a LLCC but there are plenty of arguments as to whether to upgrade as in vigorous LLCC and winds over 40mph and against as in only the eastern flank has thunderstorm activity so I would say this would qualify for an upgrade but just barely

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[RL3AO]

I agree with Alyono. Shouldn't upgrade at 3z. If it can continue to increase convection, then pull the trigger at 9z.

[gatorcane]

Deep convection beginning to fire quite near the center. Colder cloud tops should expand over the next few hours, helping to maintain the surface circulation.

Saved IR loop showing this:

[Hammy]

Given the wording in the outlook, I would assume that if they were going to upgrade there would've been plenty of time to get the advisory out a tad early (which has happened in some cases) if they were going to upgrade, and there is still nothing yet, which leads me to believe there won't be one today.

[Frank2]

If they upgrade to TD or TS its not necessairly because of any future hurricane potential, but for the marine warnings that might become necessary even with a TS....

[tropicwatch]

I would be surprised at an upgrade. For the first time there is surface wind indication that the low is not closed anymore.

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wi ... 0,4.70,796

There is convection building but without a closed low I don't know why they would upgrade at this point.

How reliable is this site? I really question it because looking at shortwave IR satellite loop it still looks closed to me and with convection building close to the COC I doubt that it has open up that quickly especially since the hurricane hunter found a very organized closed circulation just a few hours ago.

It has seemed pretty accurate and if you click on the word Earth it brings up source information and various views.

ie...Date | 2014-07-31 19:00 Local ⇄ UTC

Data | Wind @ Surface

Scale |

Source | GFS / NCEP / US National Weather Service

Control | Now « – ‹ – › – » 〖◯〗Grid

Mode | Air – Ocean

Height | Sfc – 1000 – 850 – 700 – 500 – 250 – 70 – 10 hPa

Overlay | None – Wind – Temp – RH – WPD

| TPW – TCW – MSLP – MI







Projection | A – AE – CE – E – O – S – WB – W3

[Alyono]

Again, it was only the model guidance message that indicated an upgrade. It can and has been changed in the past, so we need to be patient

[hurricanekid416]

Storms starting to build a little