ATL: BERTHA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Unflagged 48 knot wind at surface.

[NDG]

I think this time they may sample that area further north, that's where on visible the LLC appears to be or to be reforming closer to the convection.

[caribepr]

This should probably go somewhere else, if so, mea culpa, but just in from our ferry folks

REPITO INFORMACION VIAJES ULTIMA EMBARCACION DE FAJARDO A CULEBRA 2:30 PM ULTIMA EMBARCACION CULEBRA A FAJARDO 5:00PM.

REPEAT INFORMATION TRAVEL LAST BOAT FROM FAJARDO TO CULEBRA 2:30 PM LAST BOAT CULEBRA TO FAJARDO 5:00 PM.

[NDG]

I think this is where the LLC is reforming.

[Frank2]

Just a guess but that cloud "band" to the north seems to be an outflow boundary more than anything - looks pretty unimpressive even with the wind...

[wxman57]

That does appear to be an outflow boundary to the north. LLC looks very poorly-defined - the worst it's looked in the last 4 days. I suspect the strong winds to the north are more due to the SAL outbreak than Bertha's circulation. They aren't even blowing inward toward the center. Could well open up into a wave in the next 6-12 hours.

[Alyono]

latest pass indicates no center. need more to confirm, however

[NDG]

Somebody else please take over the Recon thread, I need to get on the road. Thanks.

[NDG]

latest pass indicates no center. need more to confirm, however

They missed the area that I pointed out which is near 14.1N & 58.9W.

[NDG]

Notice that the area that they had previously sampled going which had NE winds now they reported SE Winds, I think they sampled the wrong area looking for the LLC.

[cycloneye]

Center moving fast and that is why they missed it.

[NDG]

Radar loop from Barbados clearly shows the LLC further N and W from they area they just sampled.

[KWT]

Yeah I think its pretty clear that any center is to the north of where recon is currently looking at it and also quite possibly true that there is no real center now.

This happens quite alot in weak systems with the convective flare-ups dragging the LLC further north, I seem to recall one system that constantly relocated northwards to such an extent that the models were way out...similar sort of area to what Bertha is in.

Clearly a struggling system right now, I do think its got a good chance of strengthening/redeveloping north of 25N on the way out again but till then its going to have a hard life.

[SouthDadeFish]

If there is any intact LLC, it very poorly defined.

[SeGaBob]

Is it likely that NHC mentions something about it in the next advisory?

[CrazyC83]

Indeed winds look to be up to about 50 kt based on the data, but is there a center?

[euro6208]

Can't believe this is a tropical storm first time i looked...Recon truly something essential...

[CrazyC83]

How often does a wave occur with 50 kt winds though?

[SeGaBob]

NHC must be waiting on the latest data they can get...

[KWT]

How often does a wave occur with 50 kt winds though?

I seem to recall Andrew barely had a center but had very potent winds aloft.

Pre-Alex also had some pretty good winds but lacked a center. I think whatever center is left is going to struggle for a while as it pulls more and more north and buries itself into the dry air that has wrapped round to its north.

NHC will keep it a TC for the time being regardless of what recon shows, just in case a new center is in the process of reforming. If it still is showing little signs on a LLC in 6-12hrs, then thats another matter.