ATL: BERTHA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Plane flying a little left as it makes a south to north pass. Center moving fast.

[floridasun78]

nhc say BERTHA bit stronger at 11am but DISORGANIZED

[TheAustinMan]

How often does a wave occur with 50 kt winds though?

I recall that Hurricane Ernesto in 2012 looked pretty bad on visible as it crossed the Lesser Antilles but exhibited 45 kt winds at the time, but was pretty decent on radar. Another example of a storm like this was Chantal in 2013, which despite horrible satellite appearances managed a well defined circulation on radar and also 45 kt winds at that time.
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Looking at the 400 km radar out of Barbados, it appears that the center of circulation is nearly due north of Barbados and on a latitude between Martinique and St. Lucia. Recon appears to be heading there as well.

[tolakram]

vis loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=15&lon=-59&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5

Convection collapsing and the old LLC? An LLC? Something racing out ahead.

[wzrgirl1]

Hello all,

First time posting this season. Hope everyone is well. Trying to catch up on Bertha. Seems as if the circulation has reformed. Am I seeing things correctly?

Thanks!

[Alyono]

NHC admitted this is probably a wave now

check that... new aircraft data did confirm the presence of a center... and lower pressures as well

[KWT]

Old convection decaying from the looks of things, LLC running ahead again with Bertha undressing...

Gotta give it to the LLC, its probably about as strong as it could be given the poor background, as long as it doesn't decide to take a trip to Hispaniola I reckon it'll probably make it north of the Caribbean as long as it can keep pulsing.

[NDG]

I am glad they sampled her true LLC

[NDG]

All morning long I was saying they were sampling the wrong area.

[Cyclenall]

That does appear to be an outflow boundary to the north. LLC looks very poorly-defined - the worst it's looked in the last 4 days. I suspect the strong winds to the north are more due to the SAL outbreak than Bertha's circulation. They aren't even blowing inward toward the center. Could well open up into a wave in the next 6-12 hours.

Why was this upgraded to a TS at all? And more puzzling is them forecasting it to be a TS for the next 120 hours.

[SouthDadeFish]

While the LLC sampled by recon was closed, the westerlies on the southern side do not have great areal extent. The LLC has really become severely exposed on the last few frames on satellite.

[NDG]

While the LLC sampled by recon was closed, the westerlies on the southern side do not have great areal extent. The LLC has really become severely exposed on the last few frames on satellite.

Not surprised at all of it becoming exposed again, there's still some dry air around her, it should refire more convection later today.

[cycloneye]

What plane is finding are strong winds well away to the north and NE.

[Nimbus]

That does appear to be an outflow boundary to the north. LLC looks very poorly-defined - the worst it's looked in the last 4 days. I suspect the strong winds to the north are more due to the SAL outbreak than Bertha's circulation. They aren't even blowing inward toward the center. Could well open up into a wave in the next 6-12 hours.


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/splitEW.jpg

Why was this upgraded to a TS at all? And more puzzling is them forecasting it to be a TS for the next 120 hours.

The TUTT that was north of Puerto Rico has shifted NW a little and may be lifting out.
Bertha will probably take advantage of the Mona Passage, but its still too early to tell.

[TexasF6]

Looks like the "Tale of Two Centers" for Bertha. The new one with the waning convection should take over....should....

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[CrazyC83]

With the new centre, does that have any impact on the track forecast?

Intensity looks to be 50 kt based on the SFMR readings in the high 40s.

[floridasun78]

With the new centre, does that have any impact on the track forecast?

Intensity looks to be 50 kt based on the SFMR readings in the high 40s.

were new center?

[CrazyC83]

With the new centre, does that have any impact on the track forecast?

Intensity looks to be 50 kt based on the SFMR readings in the high 40s.

were new center?

Well to the northwest of the advisory centre near 14.1N 59.4W.

[ConvergenceZone]

Well, this may not recurve then like it was going to do before, because there's nothing left of it to recurve....

[tolakram]

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