Next Cape Verde Storm

[Vortex]

As cyclone and others have pointed out the TWD at 8:05 indicated a developing closed low at 8.5 and around 20W. Also, in the disscusion was the expectation that the ridge over the system and extends W would provide favorable Upper-air support. Several of the medium/long range models develop this system into Juan.

18Z postioning of Juan

at 5 days:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_120l.gif

day 6:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_144l.gif

day8:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_204l.gif

[WeatherEmperor]

interesting.

[Vortex]

excerpt from TWD concerning Cape Verde Wave:

tropical wave W of the Cape Verde along 27w/28w south of 18n
moving west 15-20 kt. Satellite imagery indicates the wave is
becoming better organized with a low level circulation now
evident near 8.5n. There is also some evidence of banding to
the west with scattered moderate convection within 30 nm either
side of line 6n30w 9n30w 11n26w. The mid/upper level environment
appears favorable with a building ridge between 25w-40w.

[Josephine96]

It is very interesting Vortex.. Maybe Juan is getting ready to emerge.. I was sure this would be Kate and not Juan, but Juan never materialized from TD 14

[AussieMark]

What is everyone's opinion of the tropical wave that is currently over Africa ready to emerge.

Do you think that we could potentially have 2 storms in the next 4-5 days.

[caribepr]

I've been watching this for two and a half days now (easier now that Isabel is only sucking our air out, not going to whomp us), trying to apply the things I've been learning here...the best help has been about watching the loops...it's like it is trying to pull together, but just hasn't made it far enough yet. Starting so low, I'm hoping it doesn't...we don't like starting them below 10
While that's WAY off sounding the science...I don't know the lingo enough yet to say what I'm seeing...