ATL: BERTHA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[abajan]

How often does a wave occur with 50 kt winds though?

Such a wave hit Barbados sometime back in the 1980s. From my recollection, some of the gusts were even a bit higher than that. After its passage, when our Met Office said it was just a strong tropical wave most people scoffed at them, thinking it had to have been a storm. Some tropical waves can pack a punch.

[wxman57]

How often does a wave occur with 50 kt winds though?

Bertha is embedded in a major SAL outbreak. The outbreak has very strong easterly winds just north of Bertha's center. The winds are not being generated by convergence toward a center.

[galaxy401]

Can the high winds be attributed more to the fast motion than the actual intensity?

[wxman57]

Can the high winds be attributed more to the fast motion than the actual intensity?

It's embedded in strong easterly flow associated with the SAL outbreak. Winds circulating around the center are actually not very strong, as evident by the relatively light winds east, south and west of the center.

Just snapped a screenshot off my workstation. Actual surface obs (not SFMR estimates) are in the 5-15 knot range and there isn't any evidence that the circulation is at the surface (note the easterly wind south of that swirl of clouds:

[CrazyC83]

Radar suggests the storm is about to make landfall on Martinique. Pressure still quite high there though (around 1010).

[CrazyC83]

There is a SW wind (albeit fairly light) on the northern end of St. Lucia though. That suggests the circulation is quite small.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track.

AL, 03, 2014080118, , BEST, 0, 145N, 603W, 45, 1007, TS

[Frank2]

Such a wave hit Barbados sometime back in the 1980s. From my recollection, some of the gusts were even a bit higher than that. After its passage, when our Met Office said it was just a strong tropical wave most people scoffed at them, thinking it had to have been a storm. Some tropical waves can pack a punch.

Yes, that is similar to another 1980s event when NHC forecaster Gil Clark made the "screaming easterlies" comment - in that case the winds at Kingston were also in the 50 kt range behind the wave axis, though if I vaguely recall a SAL outbreak was not associated with that event...

P.S. "Bertha" might be remembered more for that than anything - we'll see...

Frank

[NDG]

[TheAustinMan]

Not official, but here's what I've been able to label in regards to Bertha on satellite.

[StarmanHDB]

"Butt Naked" Bertha is exposing herself to St. Lucia, Martinique, and Dominica. Any reports from the ground?

[Evil Jeremy]

For what it's worth, a new round of convection is popping around Bertha's center, and in the tail as well.

[adam0983]

Tropical Storm Bertha looks ugly. Just an opinion not a forecast.

[chrisjslucia]

"Butt Naked" Bertha is exposing herself to St. Lucia, Martinique, and Dominica. Any reports from the ground?

Nothing to be seen of Bertha here in St Lucia. TS Warning called off. Expecting some rain / winds later perhaps but at this time no TS naked butts around!

[cycloneye]

There it is making first landfall in Martinique.Saved loop.

[StarmanHDB]

"Butt Naked" Bertha is exposing herself to St. Lucia, Martinique, and Dominica. Any reports from the ground?

....no TS naked butts around!

HA!

Glad you all are safe down there! I hope that the rest of the season is easy on you!

[cycloneye]

New convection building near center.

[baytownwx]

Bertha starting to get "dressed" and hauling butt! ...Like she is late for work or something
On a serious note though, I pray she brings the rain so desperately needed to the islands

[NDG]

Here are your west winds wxman57

[TheAustinMan]

There looks to be a gust front coming from the eastern rainshield igniting centralized convection.