ATL: BERTHA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Pressure down to 1008 mb in Martinique.

TFFF observed 01 August 2014 19:30 UTC
Temperature: 26.0°C (79°F)
Dewpoint: 24.0°C (75°F) [RH = 89%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.76 inches Hg (1008.0 mb)
Winds: from the W (270 degrees) at 14 MPH (12 knots; 6.2 m/s)
Visibility: 6 or more miles (10+ km)
Ceiling: unknown
Clouds: missing
Present Weather: no significant weather observed at this time

[cycloneye]

That is a great observation as the center moves over that island.

[Frank2]

TFFF observed 01 August 2014 19:30 UTC
Temperature: 26.0°C (79°F)
Dewpoint: 24.0°C (75°F) [RH = 89%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.76 inches Hg (1008.0 mb)
Winds: from the W (270 degrees) at 14 MPH (12 knots; 6.2 m/s)
Visibility: 6 or more miles (10+ km)
Ceiling: unknown
Clouds: missing
Present Weather: no significant weather observed at this time

Sounds like our weather here in South Florida, except the air temp is 90 and the dew point is 75 (ugh)...

P.S. I'm going to guess that Bertha might be downgraded to a TD later today or tonight - very weak system...

Frank

[NDG]

:uarrow: That is a great observation as the center moves over that island.

Seems like is going to pass just to the north of them.

[Hammy]

It looks like the new convection has given the circulation a bit of a boost as far as the windflow, given the 15kt west wind over Martinique, as it was struggling just to wrap around. And the radar shows the same as the convection is wrapping west and south around the center now.
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/animMOSAIC2.html

[CrazyC83]

TFFF observed 01 August 2014 19:30 UTC
Temperature: 26.0°C (79°F)
Dewpoint: 24.0°C (75°F) [RH = 89%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.76 inches Hg (1008.0 mb)
Winds: from the W (270 degrees) at 14 MPH (12 knots; 6.2 m/s)
Visibility: 6 or more miles (10+ km)
Ceiling: unknown
Clouds: missing
Present Weather: no significant weather observed at this time

Sounds like our weather here in South Florida, except the air temp is 90 and the dew point is 75 (ugh)...

P.S. I'm going to guess that Bertha might be downgraded to a TD later today or tonight - very weak system...

Frank

Not until the next Recon since it looked as bad or worse earlier with 45-50 kt winds...I see no reason to adjust the intensity at this time.

[TheStormExpert]

NHC has it nearing hurricane strength with winds of 70mph at 120hrs.

[Hammy]

When does the next plane fly out?

[NDG]

43 mph wind gust in Dominica.

METAR text: TDPD 012000Z 09020G37KT 4000W -SHRA BKN013 26/24 Q1012
Conditions at: TDPD (MELVILLE HALL AR, DM) observed 2000 UTC 01 August 2014
Temperature: 26.0°C (79°F)
Dewpoint: 24.0°C (75°F) [RH = 89%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.88 inches Hg (1012.0 mb)
Winds: from the E (90 degrees) at 23 MPH (20 knots; 10.4 m/s)
gusting to 43 MPH (37 knots; 19.2 m/s)
Visibility: 2.49 miles (4.01 km)
Ceiling: 1300 feet AGL
Clouds: broken clouds at 1300 feet AGL
Weather: -SHRA (light rain showers)

[NDG]

When does the next plane fly out?

Is on its way there, a NOAA plane.

[NDG]

Looks like is going over the Island of Dominica as the southern Island now reporting light WSW winds and a pressure down to 1008mb.

Conditions at: TDCF observed 01 August 2014 21:00 UTC
Temperature: 26.0°C (79°F)
Dewpoint: 22.0°C (72°F) [RH = 79%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.76 inches Hg (1008.0 mb)
Winds: from the WSW (250 degrees) at 6 MPH (5 knots; 2.6 m/s)
Visibility: 4 miles (6 km)
Ceiling: 1000 feet AGL
Clouds: broken clouds at 1000 feet AGL
broken clouds at 3000 feet AGL
Present Weather: -SHRA (light rain showers)
TDCF 012100Z 25005KT 6000 -SHRA BKN010 BKN030 26/22 Q1008

[Hammy]

When does the next plane fly out?

Is on its way there, a NOAA plane.

It seems like it landed at Saint Croix.

[TheAustinMan]

When does the next plane fly out?

Is on its way there, a NOAA plane.

It seems like it landed at Saint Croix.

It got ferried to St. Croix in preparation for a pre-storm oceanic survey which will gather oceanic and atmospheric data in the path of TS Bertha tomorrow, I think. 10 AM Eastern tomorrow (8/2) I believe is the time when this flight will commence.

[NDG]

When does the next plane fly out?

Is on its way there, a NOAA plane.

It seems like it landed at Saint Croix.

It sure did. I guess they will fly into it tonight at 0z the AF?

Code: Select all

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA
       FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 49      FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 77
       A. 02/0000Z                A. 01/2330Z, 02/0530Z
       B. NOAA9 0403A CYCLONE     B. AFXXX 0503A CYCLONE
       C. 01/1730Z                C. 01/2200Z
       D. NA                      D. 14.6N 60.9W
       E. NA                      E. 01/2315Z TO 02/0530Z
       F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT     F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


[galaxy401]

What will the conditions be like if Bertha does survive past the graveyard zone (Easter Carib)? NHC thinks it will strengthen then but will there still be dry air?

[Gustywind]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
500 PM AST FRI AUG 01 2014

...CENTER OF BERTHA PASSING NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF MARTINIQUE...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 61.2W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM NW OF FORT DE FRANCE MARTINIQUE
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A FRENCH WEATHER STATION ON
LA DESIRADE ISLAND NEAR GUADELOUPE RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 35 MPH...56 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 52 MPH...84 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

[TheEuropean]

New Air Force mission just started at Kessler Air Force Base, look at recon thread.

[NDG]

What will the conditions be like if Bertha does survive past the graveyard zone (Easter Carib)? NHC thinks it will strengthen then but will there still be dry air?

It is not forecasted to strengthen by the NHC while it is in the Graveyard of the Caribbean, strengthening once it goes north of the Caribbean next week where UL shear will be better and environment more moist.

[Hammy]

New Air Force mission just started at Kessler Air Force Base, look at recon thread.

if Bertha continues its cycle like the last few days the plane should then be arriving right as the convective max begins, which should be pretty interesting provided the max winds have cleared the islands by then.

[TheProfessor]

So if Bertha has trouble strengthening when it gets north of Carribean would it still recurve?