ATL: BERTHA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tropicwatch]

The dry air and wind shear have diminished considerably.

[TheAustinMan]

Mid level shear is still persisting over Bertha but overall the upper/lower level averaged shear has dropped like a rock in the area surrounding Bertha.

[Hammy]

Mid level shear is still persisting over Bertha but overall the upper/lower level averaged shear has dropped like a rock in the area surrounding Bertha.

So more favorable conditions immediately ahead of it?

[SeGaBob]

So if Bertha has trouble strengthening when it gets north of Carribean would it still recurve?

I'd like to know the answer to this as well.

[ozonepete]

So if Bertha has trouble strengthening when it gets north of Carribean would it still recurve?

I'd like to know the answer to this as well.

Quite likely regardless of its strength. That longwave trough that is moving into the eastern U.S. will be strong enough to pick up even a weak system.

[ozonepete]

To be more clear, it could move more northward than northeastward when it makes the first turn near the Bahamas if it's weaker, but the steering from the trough will likely keep it off the U.S. east coast regardless.

[Gustywind]

Looks like Guadeloupe should face strongs TS winds during next couple of hours as Bertha is moving close to Dominica now. Whereas we're always under an yellow alert and no more for now but i follow closely the situation....

[ozonepete]

Looks like Guadeloupe should face strongs TS winds during next couple of hours as Bertha is moving close to Dominica now. Whereas we're always under an yellow alert and no more for now but i follow closely the situation....

Hi gusty! Yeah the strongest for you is coming now. Let us know what's going on there but keep a watchful eye since it sure looks like Bertha is strengthening right now. A lot of heavy rain for you in the next few hours as convection is really increasing. And winds could really pick up in those biggest thunderstorms.

[Gustywind]

Looks like Guadeloupe should face strongs TS winds during next couple of hours as Bertha is moving close to Dominica now. Whereas we're always under an yellow alert and no more for now but i follow closely the situation....

Hi gusty! Yeah the strongest for you is coming now. Let us know what's going on there but keep a watchful eye since it sure looks like Bertha is strengthening right now. A lot of heavy rain for you in the next few hours as convection is really increasing. And winds could really pick up in those biggest thunderstorms.

Hi my friend! Thanks for the reply. You're right let's hope that nothing bad happen from that feature.! The wind is not too strong but blows nicely. Given the sat showers and tstorms should begin to affect during the next hour. Keeping our fingers crossed . As usual i will keep your informed if anything happens here.

Regards

Gustywind

[Gustywind]

First report of Bertha arrival in Dominica...

http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/dominica.shtml


- CONDITIONS DETERIORATING FAST...
•From: Alex Staunton <dtkcomp2002 at yahoo.com>
•Date: Fri, 1 Aug 2014 14:19:35 -0700

Good Afternoon/ evening to All!
Re:Bertha- - Conditions are now deteriorating rapidly on the North East Coast-
stronger gusts have been building from mid morning - some minor to moderate
squalls ocurred earlier...& they were mostly at or near gale force about 26-30
knots -& the ocean has been building steadily since and is now churning wildly
here on the North East coast of the island near Londonderry.

Bertha is looking better on radar-& it will take a while to transition into
surface satellite imagery, which is happening slowly- but unlike some storms
that have impressive satellite imagery and yet no 'bite' - Bertha is Definitely
a storm that's Big on surface action-as evident on radar- She definitely knows
how to 'dance.'
Tropical storm force winds have begun in earnest in my local area from about
3:40pm (Eastern Caribbean local time). Looking at the Martinique radar- it
seems like the North of Martinique is still getting punished currently. Here in
Dominica our Southern area is about to feel the brunt- I hope the reports of
last minute scrambles in the Capital today would have paid off over night And
into tomorrow... No doubt there will always be those who are caught
unprepared...Berta looks like it's intensifying right on the heels and
eventually right over Dominica (It's center according to Radar fixes being in
the Dominica/ Martinique Channel)... It will be a long night- keep us in
Prayer! Latest wind gusts at the nearest airport- Melville Hall outs too winds
at 37 knots...Cudos to our utility crews and to the 'French' guys at SxM
Cyclone who are doing a great job like so many if these wonderful weather
sites/ blogs.
Also, Long may the power live - a Great job by our local power company- Domlec
so far! Sadly Like I said in an earlier post- this storm has already been
deadly- earlier on-from its impacts all the way on the African coast- it does
bear watching for sure...Re: those ahead in its track... Let's All take good
care this season & God Bless!

With God all things are Possible! -

[ozonepete]

Look at how rapidly the convection has rebuilt over the center of this storm and over the eastern portion, and this happened at DMIN.

1:15 PM EDT


4 and 1/2 hours later at 5:45PM EDT:

[Gustywind]

Here is the latest from Dominica weather station as Bertha is the suprised guest...

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TDCF.html

Current Weather Conditions:
Canefield Airport, Dominica

Conditions at Aug 01, 2014 - 06:00 PM EDT Aug 01, 2014 - 2014.08.01 2200 UTC

Wind from the S (180 degrees) at 8 MPH (7 KT) gusting to 20 MPH (17 KT)
Visibility 1 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Rain showers
Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 78 F (26 C)
Dew Point 71 F (22 C)
Relative Humidity 78%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.74 in. Hg (1007 hPa)
ob TDCF 012200Z 18007G17KT 2000 SHRA FEW008 BKN010CB 26/22 Q1007


Latest 6 PM (22) Aug 01 78 (26) 71 (22) 29.74 (1007) S 8 rain showers
5 PM (21) Aug 01 78 (26) 71 (22) 29.77 (1008) WSW 6 light rain showers
4 PM (20) Aug 01 78 (26) 73 (23) 29.80 (1009) NNW 6 light rain showers
3 PM (19) Aug 01 80 (27) 73 (23) 29.85 (1011) NNE 8 light rain showers
2 PM (18) Aug 01 80 (27) 73 (23) 29.88 (1012) NW 1 light rain showers
1 PM (17) Aug 01 84 (29) 68 (20) 29.88 (1012) N 6
Noon (16) Aug 01 82 (28) 64 (18) 29.91 (1013) SSE 5

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Look at how rapidly the convection has rebuilt over the center of this storm and over the eastern portion, and this happened at DMIN.

Interesting. I wonder how it will behave overnight during Dmax. Conditions could be getting a little more favorable compared to yesterday.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, ozonepete, convection has surged back rather nicely today. Actually, Bertha may be slightly strengthening this evening as she passes through the islands.As panamatropicwatch indicated above on this page, apperently Bertha has found a pocket of marginally conducive conditions with regards to shear and has scoured out enough dry air to build convection again. This is the best this system has looked to me in a couple of days. This will help it maintain itself as the system approches more hostile conditions the next 48 hours.

Now, there will be struggles ahead with more shear and dry air through the weekend until Bertha prepares to round the bend of the subtropical ridge. Once Bertha gets up near the Bahamas, the upper level conditions may become more favorable for significant development as the cyclone begins its recurve out to sea by Monday.

[ozonepete]

Look at how rapidly the convection has rebuilt over the center of this storm and over the eastern portion, and this happened at DMIN.

Interesting. I wonder how it will behave overnight during Dmax. Conditions could be getting a little more favorable compared to yesterday.

Yeah, there are indications that the shear has dropped a lot and it looks like the dry air is lessening and what's there is not being entrained now.

[ozonepete]

Yeah, ozonepete, convection has surged back rather nicely today. Actually, Bertha may be slightly strengthening this evening as she passes through the islands.As panamatropicwatch indicated above on this page, apperently Bertha has found a pocket of marginally conducive conditions with regards to shear and has scoured out enough dry air to build convection again. This is the best this system has looked to me in a couple of days. This will help it maintain itself as the system approches more hostile conditions the next 48 hours.

Now, there will be struggles ahead with more shear and dry air through the weekend until Bertha prepares to round the bend of the subtropical ridge. Once Bertha gets up near the Bahamas, the upper level conditions may become more favorable for significant development as the cyclone begins its recurve out to sea by Monday.

Hi northjax! Yeah this has a decent shot at a minimal hurricane as it leaves the Bahamas.

[Fego]

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/atl_sat_flan.html

Here a very interesting review of Bertha evolution in a seven days time frame.

[northjaxpro]

Gustywind, keep us updated to what is happening down there. Hoping Bertha brings some beneficial rain to you and to all down there. Also, hope Bertha breezes through with minimal or no significant damage of course!

[Hammy]

Radar presentation not looking so good, and have been staring at the high-res visible loop before sunset trying to find some west component to the clouds, and that combined with the recon finding calm winds leads me to believe that the islands may have disrupted the circulation to at least some degree.

[galaxy401]

Radar presentation not looking so good, and have been staring at the high-res visible loop before sunset trying to find some west component to the clouds, and that combined with the recon finding calm winds leads me to believe that the islands may have disrupted the circulation to at least some degree.

I don't think small islands can disrupt tropical cyclones but I could be wrong.