ATL: BERTHA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hammy]

Radar presentation not looking so good, and have been staring at the high-res visible loop before sunset trying to find some west component to the clouds, and that combined with the recon finding calm winds leads me to believe that the islands may have disrupted the circulation to at least some degree.

I don't think small islands can disrupt tropical cyclones but I could be wrong.

Normally it wouldn't but this is a very small circulation in this case.

[Gustywind]

Gustywind, keep us updated to what is happening down there. Hoping Bertha brings some beneficial rain to you and to all down there. Also, hope Bertha breezes through with minimal or no significant damage of course!

Ok will try if we don't have poweroutages for example

[floridasun78]

be safe in GUADELOUPE Gustywind

[Frank2]

Just a guess, but perhaps the increase in convection could be due to orographic lifting rather than an increase in organization or strength...

[Gustywind]

be safe in GUADELOUPE Gustywind

Thanks a lot i appreciate, and for all my friends. I pray for all my carib neighbours too, gracias por tu apoyo Cycloneye y tu trabajo fenomenal here

[Gustywind]

By the way can someone put a latest pic of the fat lady Bertha ? thanks.

[TheAustinMan]

By the way can someone put a latest pic of the fat lady Bertha ? thanks.

Latest:


Edit: Swapped out the temporary NASA link for a permanent Imgur link. Cheers.

[Hammy]

Just a guess, but perhaps the increase in convection could be due to orographic lifting rather than an increase in organization or strength...

In the same sense, could the downslope winds as it passed the islands be what is halting the westerly inflow at the moment?

[abajan]

Just to update you guys on what Barbados has been experiencing so far from Bertha:
Except for some gentle southeasterly breezes, Zip, Nada, Zilch!

[Gustywind]

By the way can someone put a latest pic of the fat lady Bertha ? thanks.

Latest:

[Chris_in_Tampa]

By the way can someone put a latest pic of the fat lady Bertha ? thanks.

Satellite as of 23:15Z. Recon as of 23:32Z.

[floridasun78]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
800 PM AST FRI AUG 01 2014

...BERTHA MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR PUERTO RICO ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 61.9W
ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM WSW OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

[floridasun78]

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A WEATHER STATION ON DOMINICA
RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 43 MPH...69 KM/H. GUADELOUPE
RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 37 MPH...59 KM/H.

[ozonepete]

Just a guess, but perhaps the increase in convection could be due to orographic lifting rather than an increase in organization or strength...

There is no way at all that any of those tiny islands are having any significant orographic effect on Bertha at all. They are just too small. The first island big enough to enhance or disrupt convection is Puerto Rico and even there it's almost always minimal. Only the bigger islands of Hispaniola, Jamaica (more mountainous) and Cuba can do that.

[fd122]

Very windy here in Antigua. We had a heavy shower that lasted 20m and that's been it.

[hurricanekid416]

Interesting too see what the convection will do during DMAX

[cycloneye]

Just a guess, but perhaps the increase in convection could be due to orographic lifting rather than an increase in organization or strength...

There is no way at all that any of those tiny islands are having any significant orographic effect on Bertha at all. They are just too small. The first island big enough to enhance or disrupt convection is Puerto Rico and even there it's almost always minimal. Only the bigger islands of Hispaniola, Jamaica (more mountainous) and Cuba can do that.

Hi Oz. PR has the Central mountains range that has some high mountains with the tallest Cerro Punta at 4,338 feet but agree that PR doesn't do much to weaken systems. Big example was Georges that crossed all the island from east to west but it weakened only a little.

[caribepr]

Just a guess, but perhaps the increase in convection could be due to orographic lifting rather than an increase in organization or strength...

There is no way at all that any of those tiny islands are having any significant orographic effect on Bertha at all. They are just too small. The first island big enough to enhance or disrupt convection is Puerto Rico and even there it's almost always minimal. Only the bigger islands of Hispaniola, Jamaica (more mountainous) and Cuba can do that.

Hi Oz. PR has the Central mountains range that has some high mountains with the tallest Cerro Punta at 4,338 feet but agree that PR doesn't do much to weaken systems. Big example was Georges that crossed all the island from east to west but it weakened only a little.

Got a call from renters today...told them to enjoy and be ready with books and libations for a rain event in the afternoon. Is that fair to say to them?

[sunnyday]

Nearing hurricane strength by 120 hours? Where should Bertha be at that time?

[HURAKAN]

Nearing hurricane strength by 120 hours? Where should Bertha be at that time?

North Atlantic moving away from land