ATL: BERTHA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[sunnyday]

So everyone feels pretty certain that Bertha will exit stage right (I hate the word recurve) before it even brushes the east coast?

[ozonepete]

Just a guess, but perhaps the increase in convection could be due to orographic lifting rather than an increase in organization or strength...

There is no way at all that any of those tiny islands are having any significant orographic effect on Bertha at all. They are just too small. The first island big enough to enhance or disrupt convection is Puerto Rico and even there it's almost always minimal. Only the bigger islands of Hispaniola, Jamaica (more mountainous) and Cuba can do that.

Hi Oz. PR has the Central mountains range that has some high mountains with the tallest Cerro Punta at 4,338 feet but agree that PR doesn't do much to weaken systems. Big example was Georges that crossed all the island from east to west but it weakened only a little.

Hi Luis. Georges was actually the example I was going to use. Looks like you are going to get just what the weather doctor ordered: heavy rain with not too bad winds. But we both know even a weak TS can cause havoc so please stay safe there in beautiful PR.

[pgoss11]

So everyone feels pretty certain that Bertha will exit stage right (I hate the word recurve) before it even brushes the east coast?

I would follow the NHC forecasted track...they are almost never wrong.

[ozonepete]

So everyone feels pretty certain that Bertha will exit stage right (I hate the word recurve) before it even brushes the east coast?

I would follow the NHC forecasted track...they are almost never wrong.

Good advice. Notice there's no pro met on here making any much of an argument with the NHC track. Of course something could come up where this storm could maybe come a little closer to the U.S. but the NHC would know about it as fast as we would.

[pgoss11]

So everyone feels pretty certain that Bertha will exit stage right (I hate the word recurve) before it even brushes the east coast?

I would follow the NHC forecasted track...they are almost never wrong.

Good advice. Notice there's no pro met on here making any much of an argument with the NHC track. Of course something could come up where this storm could maybe come a little closer to the U.S. but the NHC would know about it as fast as we would.

That's true and I know some weather enthusiasts would love to see the storm possibly threaten them, but after following the NHC for 20 years I know all the -removed- in the world won't change the fact that the NHC does an awesome job and I trust their ability in forecasting where the storm will more than likely go.

[wxman57]

I'm not seeing any evidence of either TS winds or a closed circulation as Bertha moved through the islands. Winds 5-25 mph and no westerly winds.

[Hammy]

I'm not seeing any evidence of either TS winds or a closed circulation as Bertha moved through the islands. Winds 5-25 mph and no westerly winds.

Last recon pass pretty much shows the same, if it is closed at all it's extremely weak.

[NDG]

I'm not seeing any evidence of either TS winds or a closed circulation as Bertha moved through the islands. Winds 5-25 mph and no westerly winds.

Did you missed my post from earlier this afternoon? Lol

[cycloneye]

Or a very small circulation as plane has worked hard to find it.

[CrazyC83]

It doesn't help the plane is flying at 5,000 feet rather than at low altitude, although that might be so it can safely clear the mountains (at night).

[Hammy]

Those are four hours apart and things could certainly have changed in that time. It seems to be trying to remain closed but whether it's beginning to reorganize after clearing the islands, or is simply succumbing to wind shear and about to breathe its last is yet to be seen.

[Frank2]

Just a guess and my own opinion, but I really believe the NHC will downgrade at 11 p.m.

[CrazyC83]

The SFMR winds still support a 45 kt intensity though.

[NDG]

Or a very small circulation as plane has worked hard to find it.

The recon has been looking too far south once again. It was very clear that it was a closed circulation as it passed just north of Martinique over the souther portion of Dominica. The evidence is there.

[gatorcane]

Just a guess and my own opinion, but I really believe the NHC will downgrade at 11 p.m.

I think it will remain a T.S. This is the most convection we have seen near the center in many days. Could be a sign of organization or maybe not but best to leave it a T.S. for continuity for now.

[sunnyday]

I'm thankful for recurves, always, but I just am tired of that term. I never want a storm to harm anyone.

[galaxy401]

I don't think they will downgrade next advisory. They'll likely keep it at 50 mph or a little lower.

[Frank2]

True , but the surface obs looked more representive of a wave passage...

[cycloneye]

Why are they going far south?

[bahamaswx]

Just a guess and my own opinion, but I really believe the NHC will downgrade at 11 p.m.

No chance.