forcast track?????

[kba981]

:? good evening folks reading all these post everybody has an opion well I live in south florida (west palm beach) and this is not -removed- but she looks like see may not turn as fast as some people may think and she missed her first bus.the million dollar question will she miss the second bus hope not but as she moves on the high keeps up above her personallly i think the second wont catch her fast enough not saying florida will get a direct hit but very close

[Josephine96]

Good Post KBA.. everytime I wanna post something like that.. I get bashed... but a sick feeling in my stomach does agree with you..

Local mets at noon today said she'd get no closer than about 600 miles.. I don't buy that at all

[kba981]

dont worry about bashing. post your feelings and dont worry about other people we all have a right to post its not the other board at least i hope not

[wxman57]

Not to bash, but shouldn't a forecast be based upon facts and not feelings? I can't afford not to base my forecasts on anything but a thorough analysis of all of the data. I've seen this kind of hysteria for years. Every weather enthusiast forecasts the storm to hit where he or she lives. It seems everyone on the east coast "feels" it is coming his or her way, the heck with the facts.

So far, Isabel has tracked precisely as forecast. I can see no reason to doubt the current forecast. The upper-air pattern is evolving just as forecast by the models. I've never seen such universal agreement in the models. Now I know the models can often be wrong, but generally they don't all come up with the same conclusion as they are now.

So keep alert there in Florida - just in case. But I think the only effects you'll see will be a few large swells as Isbel passes well out to sea.

[opera ghost]

I've been biting my tongue- and should probably continue to do so, but I thought I'd simply mention that if you posted fewer times a day, argumentative in the extreme, that you're still watching it- you might have a more favorable reaction to your posts.

I had a bad feeling about Issy from the start- that she was heading into the gulf. I see the data and recognize that most people don't believe it's heading this way- and it's been shown to me many times that it's practically impossible. And yet I'm still hanging out here- dreading the call that she's turned dramatically against the models. It's not logical. It's really not. But I'm still worried untill she's a fish or dead.

But when I post about that worry- I do so nonconfronttionally. I post it sparringly, and I never contradict data that's being presented as fact. I'm not a very confrontational person, believe it or not. Not a single person has felt the urge to berate me for my worry And no one is annoyed at me at the moment (except possibly you after this)

You have an average of about 50 posts a day- most of which are very similar- Floridians BEWARE! The models may be wrong! Prepare Prepare Prepare!

I'll reassure you just a little- if this heads towards you or I- there's going to be a lot of people very very well informed regardless of how many times we shout out into the void of this message board. Not a single met's mind is going to be changed by you or I and our gut feelings. Untill this hurricane makes landfall or goes true noth of you and I- it's really not going to matter except in the case where you or I could say

I told you so.

I hear you John. I really do. So does everyone else. Everyone else here will be more than happy to eat thier crow if Issy doens't complete her northward turn. Feel secure in your knowledge- feel free to post gut feelings But if you flood with the same refrain dozens upon dozens of atimes a day- people are likely to get a little cranky with you.... ESPECIALLY with the high tensions that having a Cat5 out in the atlantic are bringing.

[kba981]

agee 100% just stating that is is is heading w to wnw coorect me if i am wrong didnt all models show andrew turning north and well we now the rest

[ericinmia]

O.K. buddy you forecast because you are a MET, we are not.... we don't forecast we surmise, guess, think, wish, have no liability to what we say...

let us be us and you all can remain yourselves!

I really appreciate when the MET's coment on our ideas, but when they place such a negetive or demeaning tone on them it becomes an insult to us...

Peace

-Eric

[Anonymous]

hey kba, I am in west palm too

[kba981]

glad to see someone from west palm what part iam in the acreage

[Josephine96]

All I have to rebuttal with is that most of my posts are just responses to everyone elses... Sure, I start a couple threads every once in a while.. but I usually respond to a lot of others..

I'm not in the mood to even attempt to get cranky with anyone.. I'm in a pretty good mood right now.. Most people enjoy reading my posts.. so I will continue to voice my feelings or opinions..

Oh well.. Just watching and waiting before I go to bed... and another thing.. I am a nervous Floridian just like some others in here are I'm sure.. Cut me a little slack lol...

[ColdFront77]

I would hope all of us here understand that usually when a hurricane passes your latitude or longitude the chances of it approaching your area are slim.

If something steering they storm changes than of course it will change course no matter it passing by that latitude or longitude... look at the several tropical cyclones that have made more than a couple loop during their existence.....

[hurricanedude]

geeeeeez, cant we just all get along?