Whoa! HOLD THE PHONE! 11PM discussion makes NO sense!

[WeatherNLU]

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11 BASED ON THE PAST 12 HOURS OF MOTION.
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE
HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. AN APPROACHING
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS
FORECAST TO BYPASS ISABEL ON ABOUT DAY 3...BUT THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH SHOULD PICK UP THE HURRICANE BY ABOUT DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY BUT IS STILL CLOSE TO THE WESTERN-MOST GUIDANCE WHICH IS
THE GFS MODEL. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SHOWS A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED FOR 3 DAYS FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
ON DAY 4 AND 5. NOTE THAT THE 5 DAY FORECAST POSITION IS RATHER
CLOSE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC U.S. COAST.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0300Z 23.0N 63.7W 140 KT
12HR VT 14/1200Z 23.7N 65.4W 140 KT
24HR VT 15/0000Z 24.5N 67.3W 135 KT
36HR VT 15/1200Z 25.2N 68.7W 130 KT
48HR VT 16/0000Z 25.9N 69.8W 125 KT
72HR VT 17/0000Z 28.0N 71.6W 120 KT
96HR VT 18/0000Z 31.6N 73.4W 110 KT
120HR VT 19/0000Z 36.5N 75.0W 100 KT

_______________________________________________________

OK, the trough that is supposed to be around according to the NHC at day 3 is forecast by them in this discussion to MISS Isabel. The problem is that Isabel is speeding up. Day 5 is too late for something to pick up Isabel. It's moving at 11KTS. This equals close to 13 mph. 13 mph times 24 hours is 312 miles per day. 312 miles equates to roughly 5 degrees of longitude. 24 hr position would be 68.7 not 67.3. 48 hr position would be 73.7 not 69.8. They mention a decrease in forward speed, but that is a heck of a decrease and they say not until day 3. They say the trough at day 5 picks it up. At this rate of speed, Isabel in partying on South Beach by day 5. I'm consfused to say the least. I'm also tired, so if anyone thinks something different, help me understand.

[Anonymous]

You are right. They or the models have not been able to calculate the speed of this hurricane right at all! It will make the difference in the long end and they have it wrong! No wonder why I don't agree with their predicition

[Josephine96]

Weather Man- I haven't agreed with it much lately either.. but of course, you probably know that.. lol. Oh well.. sleep is coming for me.. I don't know why I've posted so much today.. lol

[GalvestonDuck]

Weather Man- I haven't agreed with it much lately either.. but of course, you probably know that.. lol. Oh well.. sleep is coming for me.. I don't know why I've posted so much today.. lol

Yeah -- slow down, pal!! You're catching up with me and I won't stand for it.



Is it me, or has Rob been quiet today?

[JetMaxx]

What in the heck is Miles Lawrence talking about the GFS being the "westernmost" model tonight? The 00z LBAR proggs Isabel into Myrtle Beach...the A98 forecast landfall just east of Wilmington, and one of the BAMM models took Issy inland over Cape Hatteras..

My God...what in the name of God was Lawrence watching tonight? the Georgia Tech-FSU game on ABC???

[GalvestonDuck]

I loved seeing the 'Noles get their stuffing knocked out of 'em!

[HurricaneQueen]

Yes, I agree, but they pulled it out in the end. Unlike the mighty Gators' 63-3 victory. Go Gators!!!!!

[Deenac813]

They say the trough at day 5 picks it up. At this rate of speed, Isabel in partying on South Beach by day 5. I'm consfused to say the least. I'm also tired, so if anyone thinks something different, help me understand.

I understood your post complete but dont have the answer.. but I certainly dont want Isabel partying on South beach! LOL! I hope a met looks at this & gives their opinion.. I dont like the Isabel is so close to me!

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

My EOC is opening for business in the morning!

[TampaFl]

My EOC is opening for business in the morning! :cry:

Charleston_Hugo_veteran, is your EOC being partially activated today or since tomorrow is Monday they will be open any way, and then as the week goes on , they will go to full "activation".


Robert

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Not sure, heard this on the local news last night. They showed the offices already prepared and said tomorrrow was first operation day.

[BEER980]

Well I read that paper on Annular hurricanes for the post the other day. If I remember right the models have a hard time with them. They can't forecast the intensity on those storms and maybe the forward speed also is hard to predict. Maybe I missed something in that paper and could be wrong.