ATL: BERTHA - Models

[pgoss11]

12Z Guidance, the BAMs keep slowly shifting westward:

Now most of the models have is going right through the middle of the Dominican Republic..and that's quite the sharp right turn..That trough means business.

[HurricaneBrain]

I think Bertha is going to end up farther west than most of us think. Her center, if there is one, is poorly organized. If she continues to disorganize, I wouldn't be surprised to see a westward shift in the models.

[CFLHurricane]

I think Bertha is going to end up farther west than most of us think. Her center, if there is one, is poorly organized. If she continues do disorganize, I wouldn't be surprised to see a westward shift in the models.

I think this assessment is spot on

[pgoss11]

I think Bertha is going to end up farther west than most of us think. Her center, if there is one, is poorly organized. If she continues do disorganize, I wouldn't be surprised to see a westward shift in the models.

I think this assessment is spot on

It could be a possibility but it doesn't change the fact that the stalled trough on the east coast will shunt Bertha out to sea.
Not a forecast.

[CrazyC83]

What would happen if Bertha gets trapped within the trough?

[Blown Away]

18z... Shallow models go west...


18z...


72 hour forecast position

[CFLHurricane]

I think Bertha is going to end up farther west than most of us think. Her center, if there is one, is poorly organized. If she continues do disorganize, I wouldn't be surprised to see a westward shift in the models.

I think this assessment is spot on

It could be a possibility but it doesn't change the fact that the stalled trough on the east coast will shunt Bertha out to sea.
Not a forecast.

Interesting forecast. We shall sea.

[pgoss11]

18z... Shallow models go west...


18z...

A western shift before the right hook.. Hope that model that goes to Charleston is wrong

[SeGaBob]

Personally I could see this getting far enough west to turn northeast in the gulf and going out to sea from there but it's not likely.


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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Hurricane Alexis]

http://i60.tinypic.com/24e5jsz.jpg
18z... Shallow models go west...

http://i61.tinypic.com/33jomyf.jpg
18z...

A western shift before the right hook.. Hope that model that goes to Charleston is wrong

That's just the Clipper5(Climatology and Persistence model). It's strictly a statistical model.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Pretty cut and dry here. This system is not going anywhere but up and out. The ever persistent, unusually strong trough is forecast to stick around til Wednesday before the high starts building in.

[floridasun78]

but look like models want take it bit more west because not strong

[floridasun78]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... pics_3.png you see low over keys here loop http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html

[floridasun78]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html here NAVGEM here uk http://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim. ... na&lang=en

[NDG]

Majority of models now support Bertha to become a Hurricane within 72 hrs.

[Equilibrium]

Out liner but interesting another coast hugger.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

I can tell you that the force is strong in this trough that has been stalled out over the east coast the past few days. It has brought nightly severe thunderstorms with heavy rain the past 3 nights, and looks like we are in for another night of it tonight. I think, unless the trough just suddenly dissipates over night, Bertha has no choice but to bounce off of it.

[Bizzles]

Interesting forecast. We shall sea.

I sea what you did there.