ATL: BERTHA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[caribepr]

Bertha has left the building (except for some wind and cloudy skies making it feel wonderful). All is well here on Culebra, much much needed rain!

[cycloneye]

Paragrafh from 5 PM discussion.

Bertha has maintained some organized convection over the eastern
semicircle during the past several hours. However, the system
barely qualifies as a tropical cyclone, as a combination of NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft and surface data cannot definitively close
off the circulation. The initial intensity is reduced to 40 kt
based on a combination of surface observations and data from the San
Juan WSR-88D Doppler radar. It should be noted that Bertha
continues to suffer from dry air entrainment and northwesterly
vertical shear, and advisories could be discontinued tonight or
Sunday if the system becomes any less organized.

[northjaxpro]

Bertha has left the building (except for some wind and cloudy skies making it feel wonderful). All is well here on Culebra, much much needed rain!

Great news to know all is well down there and Bertha provided some very welcomed, beneficial rain to all down in Puerto Rico.

[pgoss11]

In the 5 PM discussion The NHC mentions this as a third possibility for the intensity forecast for Bertha:

A new third
possibility involves a low pressure area currently developing over
the northwestern Bahamas. The UKMET and NAVGEM forecast this low to
get strong enough to absorb Bertha in 48 hours or so, while the
other models are less bullish on the its development. Later model
runs should help determine the likelihood of this scenario.

Are there any examples of this happening before? Interesting...

[Hammy]

In the 5 PM discussion The NHC mentions this as a third possibility for the intensity forecast for Bertha:

A new third
possibility involves a low pressure area currently developing over
the northwestern Bahamas. The UKMET and NAVGEM forecast this low to
get strong enough to absorb Bertha in 48 hours or so, while the
other models are less bullish on the its development. Later model
runs should help determine the likelihood of this scenario.

Are there any examples of this happening before? Interesting...

Would this end up being tropical?

[floridasun78]

In the 5 PM discussion The NHC mentions this as a third possibility for the intensity forecast for Bertha:

A new third
possibility involves a low pressure area currently developing over
the northwestern Bahamas. The UKMET and NAVGEM forecast this low to
get strong enough to absorb Bertha in 48 hours or so, while the
other models are less bullish on the its development. Later model
runs should help determine the likelihood of this scenario.

Are there any examples of this happening before? Interesting...

i saw that too i think nam models one show that

[jinftl]

In this third scenario, does a new system generate that is classified as a separate system? is this low also tropical in nature?

In the 5 PM discussion The NHC mentions this as a third possibility for the intensity forecast for Bertha:

A new third
possibility involves a low pressure area currently developing over
the northwestern Bahamas. The UKMET and NAVGEM forecast this low to
get strong enough to absorb Bertha in 48 hours or so, while the
other models are less bullish on the its development. Later model
runs should help determine the likelihood of this scenario.

Are there any examples of this happening before? Interesting...

[Hammy]

I just remembered one instance of a similar occurrence, Klaus and Marco in 1990; Klaus was moving north of the Antilles and encountering very heavy wind shear from an upper low over Cuba, which then worked its way to the surface, became Marco, and absorbed Klaus as it moved up the west coast of Florida.

[jlauderdal]

john morales doesnt think its going to survive and throws down some smack too; if nothing else this guy has stuck his neck out this week..so far he has been right about it being no threat to florida, lets see how he does with this latest foray


JohnMoralesNBC63 mins Wanna bet?: "official forecast is that Bertha survives its current lack of structure, land interaction, and dry air entrainment” — #NHC

[floridasun78]

NAVGEM show other low form from BERTHA and and area off fl and crossing keys i will post link in models forum (( already post))

[northjaxpro]

In this third scenario, does a new system generate that is classified as a separate system? is this low also tropical in nature?

In the 5 PM discussion The NHC mentions this as a third possibility for the intensity forecast for Bertha:

A new third
possibility involves a low pressure area currently developing over
the northwestern Bahamas. The UKMET and NAVGEM forecast this low to
get strong enough to absorb Bertha in 48 hours or so, while the
other models are less bullish on the its development. Later model
runs should help determine the likelihood of this scenario.


Are there any examples of this happening before? Interesting...

It would be a separate entity should the Low develop, which currently over the NW Bahamas. The Low would be tropical in nature. Just awaiting later models runs to see what possibly becomes of this and if Bertha degenerates into an open wave.

[floridasun78]

i post both UKMET and NAVGEM in models forum

[wxman57]

Recon confirmed that Bertha has no LLC, and barely a wave axis. It's gone.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Recon confirmed that Bertha has no LLC, and barely a wave axis. It's gone.

So it's a trough? Or just a bunch of strong thunderstorms?

[sunnyday]

So if this happened with the low that could supposedly cross the keys, when should that occur?

[ozonepete]

Recon confirmed that Bertha has no LLC, and barely a wave axis. It's gone.

So it's a trough? Or just a bunch of strong thunderstorms?

A tropical wave which is a trough. Though with still so much convection and an MLC it seems quite likely to regenerate just north of the island this evening. The topography of the island there is conducive to regeneration because the northeast winds hit the mountains and start curving eastward. That can close off the surface low again.

[floridasun78]

So if this happened with the low that could supposedly cross the keys, when should that occur?

GO to models forum page for BERTHA

[wxman57]

Good chance Bertha may just remain a wave and merge with a frontal boundary east of the Carolinas. I wouldn't give it much chance of becoming a hurricane in 4-5 days. Next advisory by NHC should be the final one. Significant trof along East U.S. Coast should keep Bertha's remnants well offshore.

[ozonepete]

Good chance Bertha may just remain a wave and merge with a frontal boundary east of the Carolinas. I wouldn't give it much chance of becoming a hurricane in 4-5 days. Next advisory by NHC should be the final one. Significant trof along East U.S. Coast should keep Bertha's remnants well offshore.

I'm absolutely shocked you would say that, lol. Sure you have Bones waiting in the wings.

[ozonepete]

Oh, and put me down for regeneration.