2014 EPAC Season

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Hurricane_Luis
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Re: 2014 EPAC Season

#761 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Sat Aug 02, 2014 8:53 am

Yellow Evan wrote:
Hurricane_Luis wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:http://i57.tinypic.com/30usi08.png

GFS has been hinting at a Kenna long range for a while now.



Kenna...You mean Karina. :lol:


Right, I live in a pre-2002 world sometimes. :P


I looked at it and thought something wasn't right. A glance at Wikipedia had revealed all! :D
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Re: 2014 EPAC Season

#762 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 02, 2014 8:57 am

Image

More activity expected I guess

Image

We'll have to watch closer to the W coast of MX again in 2-3 weeks.
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#763 Postby Ntxw » Sat Aug 02, 2014 9:08 am

What a conveyor belt of activity! Both EPAC and CPAC, I'm sure Hawaii will be following with interest.
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Re:

#764 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 02, 2014 9:18 am

Ntxw wrote:What a conveyor belt of activity! Both EPAC and CPAC, I'm sure Hawaii will be following with interest.


This is like August of 2009 all over again.

Both Iselle and 97E are long term Hawaii threats.
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Re:

#765 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Aug 02, 2014 4:42 pm

Ntxw wrote:What a conveyor belt of activity! Both EPAC and CPAC, I'm sure Hawaii will be following with interest.


I know I am. A lot of local folks basically brush off talks about a legitimate hurricane threat. Even our media outlets are saying Iselle is expected to bring only "increased moisture".
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#766 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 02, 2014 5:07 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Ntxw wrote:What a conveyor belt of activity! Both EPAC and CPAC, I'm sure Hawaii will be following with interest.


I know I am. A lot of local folks basically brush off talks about a legitimate hurricane threat. Even our media outlets are saying Iselle is expected to bring only "increased moisture".


At this point, it's still a little too far off to say what kinds of effects Iselle will have. I would not rule out a TS strike though.

People have short memories; Iniki was 22 years ago.

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Re: 2014 EPAC Season

#767 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Aug 02, 2014 6:35 pm

12z ECMWF double hit for Hawaii

Image

This year has the potential to become the most impressive CPAC season since 1994 IMO
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Re: 2014 EPAC Season

#768 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 02, 2014 6:51 pm

supercane4867 wrote:12z ECMWF double hit for Hawaii

Image

This year has the potential to become the most impressive CPAC season since 1994 IMO


Should be from ISelle and 97E, correct?

I would not bet on it verifying though, given how hard Hawaii landfalls are.
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Re: 2014 EPAC Season

#769 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Aug 02, 2014 7:07 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Should be from ISelle and 97E, correct?

I would not bet on it verifying though, given how hard Hawaii landfalls are.

Yes, the ECMWF has 97E passing to the south of Big Island and turning northwest similar to Dot while GFS shows a straight westward track.
Given the consistency of models it's possible that one of the them could become a direct threat to Hawaii
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Re: 2014 EPAC Season

#770 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 02, 2014 7:27 pm

supercane4867 wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:Should be from ISelle and 97E, correct?

I would not bet on it verifying though, given how hard Hawaii landfalls are.

Yes, the ECMWF has 97E passing to the south of Big Island and turning northwest similar to Dot while GFS shows a straight westward track.
Given the consistency of models it's possible that one of the them could become a direct threat to Hawaii


After what happened last year where the GFS brought two invests into Hawaii that did not form till the CPAC, I'd wait for more consistency before I really buy into this.
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Re: 2014 EPAC Season

#771 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 03, 2014 11:07 pm

MJO is leaving, but

Image

Shear expected to be low

Image

Lots of moisture and hints at more activity. ITCZ likely to move northward due to cool ITCZ, but right now, well to the south.

And then there is this little wave. Note: Currently inside Africa and may be suffering from convection feedback issue since the MJO is over there.

Image

And bombs into a major hurricane near MX

Image

12z shows it as well
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#772 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 03, 2014 11:09 pm

00
ABPZ30 KNHC 011447
TWSEP

MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

FOUR NAMED STORMS FORMED IN THE BASIN DURING JULY...ONE OF WHICH
BECAME A HURRICANE. BASED ON A 30-YEAR (1981-2010) CLIMATOLOGY...
THREE OR FOUR NAMED STORMS FORM IN THE BASIN IN JULY...WITH TWO
BECOMING HURRICANES AND ONE OF THOSE REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE
INTENSITY.

IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY...WHICH MEASURES THE COMBINED
STRENGTH AND DURATION OF TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES...ACTIVITY
IN THE BASIN SO FAR IN 2014 HAS BEEN NEAR NORMAL.


REPORTS ON INDIVIDUAL CYCLONES...WHEN COMPLETED...ARE AT THE WEB
SITE OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...USE LOWER-CASE LETTERS...
http://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/2014EPAC.SHTML

SUMMARY TABLE

NAME DATES MAX WIND (MPH)
---------------------------------------------------
MH AMANDA 22-29 MAY 155
TS BORIS 2-4 JUN 40
MH CRISTINA 9-15 JUN 150
TS DOUGLAS 28 JUN-5 JUL 45
TS ELIDA 30 JUN-2 JUL 50
TS FAUSTO 7-9 JUL 45
TS GENEVIEVE 25-31 JUL 45
H HERNAN 26-29 JUL 75
TS ISELLE 31 JUL - 65
---------------------------------------------------

* DENOTES A STORM FOR WHICH THE POST-STORM ANALYSIS IS COMPLETE.

$$
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Re: 2014 EPAC Season

#773 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 04, 2014 8:56 am

Image

0z super aggressive

Image

6z backed off
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Re: 2014 EPAC Season

#774 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 04, 2014 6:37 pm

A weak area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are
expected to remain strong over this system during the next several
days, and development, if any, should be slow to occur while the low
moves westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
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#775 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 04, 2014 7:03 pm

That EPAC ACE is gonna skyrocket this month.
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#776 Postby RL3AO » Mon Aug 04, 2014 8:58 pm

Might make a run at 20+ storms. Gonna be hard to keep up with 1992 once September gets here.
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#777 Postby RL3AO » Mon Aug 04, 2014 9:03 pm

Iselle might come up about two hours short of catching Amanda's ACE.
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Re: 2014 EPAC Season

#778 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 04, 2014 9:29 pm

cycloneye wrote:A weak area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are
expected to remain strong over this system during the next several
days, and development, if any, should be slow to occur while the low
moves westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.


We no longer have MJO's support. Still has a chance though later on.
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Re:

#779 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 04, 2014 9:30 pm

RL3AO wrote:Might make a run at 20+ storms.


Based on climatology, we should. Last season to have over 20 storm was 1992 (28).
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#780 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 05, 2014 8:46 am

We have invest 98E from the above 10/10 thingy.
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