00z ETA-Major Change to the Left

#1 Postby **Vortex** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 10:31 pm

The short range Eta which has performed very well thus far in the short term. The ooz run takes isabelle into the bahamas. It goes out to H-84 but has only updated through 72. Folks this would have major implications. It more or less bridges the High to the North and the weakness between the 2 is much less evident.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_072l.gif

#2 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 10:33 pm

Vortex this run includes the data from the gulfstream jet?

Anonymous · #3 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 10:37 pm

Eta is on my side, I don't care if the rest of you aren't :lol:

njbeachwx · #4 Postby **njbeachwx** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 10:39 pm

need a trend...

Stormchaser16 · #5 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 10:39 pm

If that includes the data from the gulfstream jet....... YIKES

njbeachwx · #6 Postby **njbeachwx** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 10:41 pm

gfs rollin in so lets see

#7 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 10:41 pm

Now let's see how the other globals show with the new data (GFS,GFDL,NOGAPS and UKMET).

Derek Ortt · #8 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 10:50 pm

As has been stated many times, ETA is even more worthless than a blindfolded chimp's forecast when it comes to forecasting TC's

njbeachwx · #9 Postby **njbeachwx** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 10:52 pm

Chimp reference, always funny!

JetMaxx · #10 Postby **JetMaxx** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 10:53 pm

I know the ETA doesn't have a reputation for handling hurricanes well...but if that model sets the trend for others to follow using data from the NOAA jet -- a lot of folks will have egg on their face tomorrow night....including me

Maybe I should add this disclaimer to every forecast I post:

"I'M NOT REALLY A METEOROLOGIST....I JUST PLAY ONE ON THE INTERNET" :lol:

Derek Ortt · #11 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 10:54 pm

also, what is the initial pressure in the model. If it is depicting issy as a shallow system, it is not being influenced by the upper trough to its west

Anonymous · #12 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 10:55 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:also, what is the initial pressure in the model. If it is depicting issy as a shallow system, it is not being influenced by the upper trough to its west

give up on the trough man

njbeachwx · #13 Postby **njbeachwx** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 10:55 pm

GFS through 36 hours still wnw..again

JetMaxx · #14 Postby **JetMaxx** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 10:57 pm

If the GFS takes Isabel into the Bahamas and south Florida on this 00z run, I swear I'll need CPR....get 9-1-1 on the line

njbeachwx · #15 Postby **njbeachwx** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 11:00 pm

The way it (gfs)is looking you can leave your medi alert button at home.

#16 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 11:00 pm

Perry wait for all the Globals to be sure of a trend one way or another as they will have the gulfstream jet data UKMET,NOGAPS,GFDL and GFS but so far I am waiting for those 4 guns to shoot the data out.

Guest · #17 Postby **Guest** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 11:04 pm

Yep i would wait as well...................Once the rest of the models are out then we shall know!..................

Constructionwx · #18 Postby **Constructionwx** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 11:05 pm

JetMaxx wrote:If the GFS takes Isabel into the Bahamas and south Florida on this 00z run, I swear I'll need CPR....get 9-1-1 on the line

Looks like it is following your track PW

RP

kba981 · #19 Postby **kba981** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 11:07 pm

were are you getting this updated model info :o

Constructionwx · #20 Postby **Constructionwx** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 11:09 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

00z ETA-Major Change to the Left

00z ETA-Major Change to the Left

need link

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