WPAC: HALONG - Post-Tropical

[xtyphooncyclonex]

It's tracking so slowly I think it might weaken itself due to upwelling.

It is moving faster now and it is expected to maintain its super typhoon status for 72 hours more.

[dexterlabio]

It is moving faster now and it is expected to maintain its super typhoon status for 72 hours more.

Yes, is now moving faster and could be feeling the weakness in the STR. Should be starting to move more poleward at this point...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The EWRC is making the system look better in fact! Excellent structure, improved symmetry and that it is losing its banding are what you see in this image of Super Typhoon Halong.

[jaguarjace]

RGB of WPac:

[euro6208]

So despite looking at it's best with a warmer eye, very cold cloud tops and increased outflow...The intensity increased by only 5 knots???

No way this is only a minor category 5...If recon were to go in, they would likely find winds of 150 knots and cp of 905...






The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

No way this is only a minor category 5...If recon were to go in, they would likely find winds of 150 knots and cp of 905...



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Again. I think this is hyping.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

First violent typhoon of the year.

TY 1411 (HALONG)
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 3 August 2014

<Analyses at 03/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center position N15°35'(15.6°)
E133°05'(133.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 915hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL170km(90NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more S390km(210NM)
N330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 04/06 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N17°20'(17.3°)
E131°00'(131.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 915hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL300km(160NM)

<Forecast for 05/06 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N19°25'(19.4°)
E130°10'(130.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 915hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 06/06 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N22°40'(22.7°)
E130°35'(130.6°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 915hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)
Storm warning area ALL560km(300NM)

[euro6208]

No way this is only a minor category 5...If recon were to go in, they would likely find winds of 150 knots and cp of 905...



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Again. I think this is hyping.

Also based on data. Are you even following this typhoon?

Far stronger than 140 knots at peak intensity earlier today but likely weakening now.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

No way this is only a minor category 5...If recon were to go in, they would likely find winds of 150 knots and cp of 905...



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Again. I think this is hyping.

Also based on data. Are you even following this typhoon?

Far stronger than 140 knots at peak intensity earlier today but likely weakening now.

I was following the storm for the past 5 days. Dvorak estimates never exceeded 7.0 for STY Halong.

Let's not fight anymore; Halong is a beast, and a monster typhoon and is still a category 5 super typhoon.

[somethingfunny]

This could be one of the worst storms in recent memory for Japan, striking a region that isn't hit very often at such an intensity. Instead of the usual northeast-moving glancing blows given to Honshu, the storm motion is almost due north at this point, so a perpendicular hit will hammer some very densely populated areas with the "dirty" side of the storm, and a heavy storm surge into Tokyo Bay if it does follow this track.



FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH.... THIS IS JUST ONE GFS RUN.

The forecast cones from both JMA and JTWC have Halong moving into the Kyushu region.

[euro6208]

[No way this is only a minor category 5...If recon were to go in, they would likely find winds of 150 knots and cp of 905...

I was following the storm for the past 5 days. Dvorak estimates never exceeded 7.0 for STY Halong.

Let's not fight anymore; Halong is a beast, and a monster typhoon and is still a category 5 super typhoon.

Agreed...Dvorak though is useless...Look at Bertha, never exceeded 2.0 but recon found a TS...

Still a very powerful Category 5

UPDATE: Dvorak of 2.5 on bertha, Intensity leads Satellite...

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

This could be one of the worst storms in recent memory for Japan, striking a region that isn't hit very often at such an intensity. Instead of the usual northeast-moving glancing blows given to Honshu, the storm motion is almost due north at this point, so a perpendicular hit will hammer some very densely populated areas with the "dirty" side of the storm, and a heavy storm surge into Tokyo Bay if it does follow this track.



FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH.... THIS IS JUST ONE GFS RUN.

The forecast cones from both JMA and JTWC have Halong moving into the Kyushu region.

06Z has a 946 mb TY into Tokyo...

[supercane]

Catchup for 06Z advisories:
WTPQ51 RJTD 030600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1411 HALONG (1411)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030600UTC 15.6N 133.1E GOOD
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 210NM SOUTH 180NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 040600UTC 17.3N 131.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
48HF 050600UTC 19.4N 130.2E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
72HF 060600UTC 22.7N 130.6E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
96HF 070600UTC 25.8N 130.1E 240NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
120HF 080600UTC 28.7N 128.8E 300NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT =

WTPQ31 RJTD 030600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.12 FOR TY 1411 HALONG (1411)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 030600 UTC IS GOOD.
TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
TY WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO NORTH.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 7.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

WTPQ20 BABJ 030600
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SUPERTY HALONG 1411 (1411) INITIAL TIME 030600 UTC
00HR 15.6N 133.1E 915HPA 62M/S
30KTS WINDS 300KM NORTHEAST
450KM SOUTHEAST
480KM SOUTHWEST
300KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 150KM NORTHEAST
180KM SOUTHEAST
210KM SOUTHWEST
150KM NORTHWEST
64KTS WINDS 70KM NORTHEAST
70KM SOUTHEAST
80KM SOUTHWEST
70KM NORTHWEST
MOVE WNW 15KM/H
P+12HR 16.5N 131.4E 910HPA 65M/S
P+24HR 17.4N 130.3E 910HPA 65M/S
P+36HR 18.5N 129.6E 915HPA 62M/S
P+48HR 19.9N 129.5E 925HPA 58M/S
P+60HR 21.2N 129.6E 930HPA 55M/S
P+72HR 23.1N 129.7E 935HPA 52M/S
P+96HR 26.4N 129.5E 940HPA 50M/S
P+120HR 29.0N 129.2E 950HPA 45M/S=

WTKO20 RKSL 030600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 22
NAME 1411 HALONG
ANALYSIS
POSITION 030600UTC 15.7N 133.1E
MOVEMENT WNW 9KT
PRES/VMAX 915HPA 105KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 040600UTC 17.3N 131.4E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 915HPA 105KT
48HR
POSITION 050600UTC 19.6N 130.5E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
72HR
POSITION 060600UTC 23.3N 130.0E WITHIN 215NM
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
96HR
POSITION 070600UTC 26.9N 129.4E WITHIN 295NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 93KT
120HR
POSITION 080600UTC 30.1N 129.2E WITHIN 380NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

[Equilibrium]

Not current but nice shot.

[supercane]

And now new 12Z advisories; don't look to be much different.
WTPQ51 RJTD 031200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1411 HALONG (1411)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031200UTC 15.7N 132.3E GOOD
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 210NM SOUTH 180NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 041200UTC 17.5N 130.6E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
48HF 051200UTC 19.9N 130.2E 110NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 061200UTC 23.3N 130.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
96HF 071200UTC 26.7N 130.0E 280NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
120HF 081200UTC 29.1N 129.6E 300NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT =



WTPQ20 BABJ 031200
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SUPERTY HALONG 1411 (1411) INITIAL TIME 031200 UTC
00HR 15.8N 132.3E 915HPA 62M/S
30KTS WINDS 300KM NORTHEAST
450KM SOUTHEAST
480KM SOUTHWEST
300KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 150KM NORTHEAST
180KM SOUTHEAST
210KM SOUTHWEST
150KM NORTHWEST
64KTS WINDS 70KM NORTHEAST
70KM SOUTHEAST
80KM SOUTHWEST
70KM NORTHWEST
MOVE NW 15KM/H
P+12HR 16.7N 131.1E 910HPA 65M/S
P+24HR 17.7N 130.0E 910HPA 65M/S
P+36HR 19.2N 129.4E 915HPA 62M/S
P+48HR 20.5N 129.4E 925HPA 58M/S
P+60HR 22.3N 129.4E 930HPA 55M/S
P+72HR 24.0N 129.3E 935HPA 52M/S
P+96HR 27.0N 129.1E 940HPA 48M/S
P+120HR 29.7N 128.9E 950HPA 42M/S=

WTKO20 RKSL 031200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 23
NAME 1411 HALONG
ANALYSIS
POSITION 031200UTC 15.7N 132.3E
MOVEMENT W 8KT
PRES/VMAX 915HPA 105KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 041200UTC 17.5N 130.8E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 915HPA 105KT
48HR
POSITION 051200UTC 20.1N 130.2E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
72HR
POSITION 061200UTC 23.8N 130.1E WITHIN 215NM
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
96HR
POSITION 071200UTC 27.2N 129.5E WITHIN 295NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
120HR
POSITION 081200UTC 30.0N 129.2E WITHIN 380NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

[supercane]

Recent microwave imagery appears to show collapsing inner eyewall, ?EWRC. (METOP is admittedly low res, but would be consistent with satellite imagery).


Dvorak classifications coming down, too, with UW-CIMSS (not shown) down to 6-6.5.
TPPN11 PGTW 031223
A. TYPHOON 11W (HALONG)
B. 03/1132Z
C. 15.8N
D. 132.3E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T6.0/7.0/W1.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.5. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 6.0. MET AND PT AGREE WITH DT. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
CHAPPOTIN

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Still a super typhoon.

11W HALONG 140803 1200 15.8N 132.3E WPAC 130 926

[euro6208]

How i wish halong was like this current state when it impacted Guam...Crazy...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

How i wish halong was like this current state when it impacted Guam...Crazy...

Be careful what you wish for. When I got so excited and had adrenaline rush during typhoon Haiyan, it ended up in a MAJOR DISASTER. It is quite inconsiderate when you wish for a super typhoon to hit your place, think about those who are not weather enthusiasts and fearing of strong storms ( due to Paka or Pongsona).