ATL: BERTHA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Too bad communication with the recon failed.

[gatorcane]

It's tough to make out a center on satellite imagery this morning but it has cleared Hispaniola to allow more inflow, it has warmer than normal SSTs to work with in the region it is heading towards plus decreasing wind shear and a less dry environment - all that means we should see it organize and strengthen some as it moves east of the Bahamas.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Sanibel]

Perhaps it just needs some space between it and Hispaniola to get a better southern inflow.

[Dean4Storms]

Anyone note that circulation just north of the Cuban Coast to the west of Bertha? Looks mid level but something needing monitoring.

Miami radar picking it up......http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=AMX&loop=yes

[Sanibel]

Anyone note that circulation just north of the Cuban Coast to the west of Bertha? Looks mid level but something needing monitoring.

Yeah, at this time of the year something that ripe could go off at any time. Seems to be nudging west towards the Gulf.

Bertha might take the fire out of it.

[gatorcane]

Also, looking at this WV loop, this may be the first time I am not seeing all the yellow around Bertha as she leaves the dry air "in the dust" (bottom right-corner of image), not pun intended!

[Dean4Storms]

Anyone note that circulation just north of the Cuban Coast to the west of Bertha? Looks mid level but something needing monitoring.

Yeah, at this time of the year something that ripe could go off at any time. Seems to be nudging west towards the Gulf.

Bertha might take the fire out of it.

Sure enough, kind of reminds me of Katrina's look down there for a while before she went off.

[NDG]

That area off the coast of SE FL the NHC dropped its chances of formation down to 0% from 10% yesterday, too close to the coast, but it should be monitored regardless.
It should move northward along the coast of FL into the Carolina coast.

Going back to Bertha's subject, she looks like she will be tracking closer to the Bahamas before moving more north.

[jlauderdal]

That area off the coast of SE FL the NHC dropped its chances of formation down to 0% from 10% yesterday, too close to the coast, but it should be monitored regardless.
It should move northward along the coast of FL into the Carolina coast.

Going back to Bertha's subject, she looks like she will be tracking closer to the Bahamas before moving more north.

complex pattern around southern flroida the next few days with the trough overhead and bertha to the se although really never gets past about 74-75w...anyway looks wet..be interesting to see if this convection offshore can make it in this afternoon, seen plenty of times where it looks threatening and never makes it onshore

back to bertha

[Nimbus]

Looks like high Cirrus outflow expanding clockwise over the Bahamas?
That is usually a sign of high pressure building or maybe its just the back side of a front?

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=20

[blp]

NW motion continues but when it gets to 75W any west motion should end according to the models. 73/74W for the globals and 75W for the BAM suite. Current position 72.6.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/03L/imagery/vis_lalo-animated.gif

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_03.gif

[Sanibel]

It's finally convecting a west band.

[Kludge]

I have been studying the tropics for more years than I care to talk about. Apparently something has changed, and I didn't get the memo.

Folks on here are talking about a tropical storm that has virtually become an open wave. And yet the forecast is for recurvature out to fishland.

Since when do open waves recurve?

This is just bizarre.

[tolakram]

I have been studying the tropics for more years than I care to talk about. Apparently something has changed, and I didn't get the memo.

Folks on here are talking about a tropical storm that has virtually become an open wave. And yet the forecast is for recurvature out to fishland.

Since when do open waves recurve?

This is just bizarre.

Well.

I fit recurves then it's not an open wave, right?

I've long held the opinion that the NHC has been too strict with tropical systems, dropping them on a dime when they don't meet our standard of tropical storm. Sandy brought about a change to their thinking and, IMO, it was about time. This is obviously a tropical system which may or may not have a nice low level circulation but is certainly being powered by the warm ocean and is very close to meeting "the so called standard" of a tropical cyclone.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Dean4Storms]

I don't see an open wave. Looks very weak but definitely see LL cumulus being pulled into the core on the western periphery and especially the SW quad. Has to be a LL center in that deeper convection somewhere.

[floridasun78]

here web cam from Turks and Caicos Islands http://www.theregentgrandresort.com/web-cam

[tolakram]

zoom 2 visible: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=22&lon=-73&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10

[Aric Dunn]

The center is quite easy to extrapolate.. the low level CU lines are becoming more defined and expanding. very likely a reformation in that area or a 2nd vort developing

[Hammy]

While this was very likely an open wave last night and most of yesterday, I don't know why talk of it continues as the plane made two passes that indicated a closed circulation, the second better defined than the first.

edit: closed circulation, albeit slightly elongated, further confirmed by ASCAT, first time it's shown up well there in about two days.

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like shear has finally dropped off some.