EXCELLENT Gary Gray Discussion / Analysis

[wxman57]

I strongly suggest you all read Gary Gray's latest discussion:

http://www.millenniumweather.com/tropical/discuss.html

It's a very thorough analysis of the current situation and all of the available data. What was his conclusion? He moved his track north from NC to the Delmarva Peninsula.

I'm not naming names, but there's an awful lot of "-removed-" that has popped up on this forum all of a sudden. I wonder if all the posters from Florida were in Delaware instead, would they then agree with the NHC forecast or insist Isabel was going to miss them to the south and hit Florida?

I don't know if I can put up with any more of this hysteria. I try to impart a little logic and science here and it is ignored by those who would prefer to use their "feelings" to make a forecast. This is getting as bad as the WWL-TV board was. Heck, they're probably forecasting Isabel to track across Florida and hit New Orleans now.....

[ColdFront77]

If I was in Delaware right now, trust me, I would be saying that Florida isn't out of the woods yet... as I would if I were still a resident of southeastern Massachusetts.

There has been a potential for Isabel to make landfall anywhere along the eastern seaboard and there are still variables out their with all the model runs and the steering that can change with surrounding weather features.

[Floridacane]

I live in East Central Florida, about 10 miles from the coast. As I have said in many other posts, when Isabel passes about 30N, I will quit worrying about me and shift more of the worry up north to my family. (South Carolina and Connecticut and Long Island and New Jersey, they all live on the coast)
I am not -removed-, and I don't think John (Josephine96) is -removed- either. We're worried. I've lived here for about 19 years and I have never been through a "cane". I moved to California right before Erin in '95.
To say what you said in your post is mean and condescending. We're all just posting what we feel. And we enjoy your input, but there were a few storms out there that the models "fudged" up. So what you are taking as -removed-, I take as concern.
The comment you stated about, "Enjoy the storm down there in Florida" was uncalled for. I hope noone takes this as me being mean, but it needed to be said, and I won't say anymore in the matter.
Thanks and I'm sorry if I offended anyone,
Lori

[Guest]

wxman57 Yea i agree some may do that but to assume all do isnt right either..................I for one do enjoy your input...................Yea some of the discussions have gotten out of hand a little but i assume that because people feel threatend and as well some do wanna see a possible once in a life time event.....................Either way try not to feel this way and the same goes for everyone else.....................Lets all calm down!

[Stormsfury]

I'm with wxman57 ... THERE ARE ABSOLUTELY NO INDICATIONS THAT FLORIDA WILL BE STRUCK BY ISABEL...NONE.

The 00z ETA is BUNK ... initialized Isabel as a 1008mb shallow system ...
Model consensus is clearly in a cone from SC/NC border northward (LBAR...yuck) to the Mid-Atlantic ... I've never seen such a window of agreement in this range ... the G-1V data was input into the 00z Globals tonight and the outputs are coming up primarily the same (except for the ETA which absolutely sucks with tropical systems).

SF

[SevreStormsGuy]

I have the current track here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT ... 1203W5.gif

I have already started plans for this upcoming cane although the track is still possible to change I feel it's time to start preapring for Isabel. I am 30 miles outside of Washington D.C. and as many know I am not crazy but she hears me calling to her and she's coming to pay me a visit.

Take Care,

[vbhoutex]

Ladies and Gentlemen. We need to all calm down a little here, IMO. No one needs to threaten to leave this board or leave it due to some hysteria.

Unfortunately people do tend to get somewhat edgey when threatened by something like Isabel. And yes there are going to be people I disagree with wherever we go. As a large and growing weather site we unfortunately will have some of those here too. The best way to deal with posts you disagree with is to calmly and respectfully state why you do disagree and leave it at that or not comment at all. PLEASE LET'S ALL TRY TO KEEP IT THAT WAY!!!

I understand everyone's frustration with Isabel's track wish washiness, but like SF says things are beginning to come in to focus. I also agree that if I lived in FL I would not take my eye off of Isabel for a moment till she is N or 30N!!!

LET'S GET BACK TO CALM DISCUSSION OF THE WEATHER PLEASE!

[Zanzie]

We're 15 miles north of Philadelphia, and I'm getting plenty worried. Our house is well built, but we're surrounded by 100 foot trees (shallow rooted) and our property backs up to a stream. This isn't looking good. The ongoing rain from Henri isn't helping, as the ground is already pretty wet before Isabel makes her appearance, whatever it may be.

[Agua]

57,

Please man, don't throw in the towel. I appreciate the commentary from all the experts (including many extremely knowledgeable amatuers), on this board, and until most recently, there has been an exceptionally high quality "signal to noise" ratio here. It's probably just the fact that Isabelle is such a dangerous storm that it has some folks really freaked out. It's the thoughtful contribution of so many experts on ths board that separates it from a lot of the crap that's out there. I hope you'll feel better after a good night's sleep.

[Steve]

>>I don't know if I can put up with any more of this hysteria. I try to impart a little logic and science here and it is ignored by those who would prefer to use their "feelings" to make a forecast. This is getting as bad as the WWL-TV board was. Heck, they're probably forecasting Isabel to track across Florida and hit New Orleans now

Sounds like you're melting down WX. WWL-TV sucks horribly, and though they are based in New Orleans, not all of us even watch that station. Carl Arredondo is the only thing they've got going weather-wise.

But 57, that's kind of extreme saying that you try to impart 'logic and science' as if you're the only one. You should know by now that the nature of Storm 2 k is pretty much a friendly type board. Not everyone is a practicing, professional meteorologist such as yourself, and a percentage of people here most likely gravitated to this site due to their abject fear of storms (irrational as it may be).

People who care read your stuff, believe me because I'm one of them (whether or not I disagere with a particular discussion). But just the same, you're not going to change the world nor should you expect everyone to value, accept or understand the comments in the same way.

JMHO

Steve

[jude]

been following gary grey's info from the beginning of this event. Thanks for posting it here.
He has an ability, I certainly appreciate, to impart info to us non met sorts that actually results in understanding of concepts and more importantly this week, understaning of safety issues.

Living here in Cape May County, NJ I feel like my brain is bouncing back & forth inside my skull. Stay? Go? Bring the oldsters over here or leave them be? Cook or freeze all this food?

After spending a week readying all for an evac-This morning we had figured we were doing the dodge the bullet gig again.... now , I am back to thinking about packing the car... or at the very least cooking more food.

Isabel has been a tough call for this locale.
-Jude

[Guest]

Nope sorry you are -removed-

I live in East Central Florida, about 10 miles from the coast. As I have said in many other posts, when Isabel passes about 30N, I will quit worrying about me and shift more of the worry up north to my family. (South Carolina and Connecticut and Long Island and New Jersey, they all live on the coast)
I am not -removed-, and I don't think John (Josephine96) is -removed- either. We're worried. I've lived here for about 19 years and I have never been through a "cane". I moved to California right before Erin in '95.
To say what you said in your post is mean and condescending. We're all just posting what we feel. And we enjoy your input, but there were a few storms out there that the models "fudged" up. So what you are taking as -removed-, I take as concern.
The comment you stated about, "Enjoy the storm down there in Florida" was uncalled for. I hope noone takes this as me being mean, but it needed to be said, and I won't say anymore in the matter.
Thanks and I'm sorry if I offended anyone,
Lori

[Stormsfury]

DT, this was an old post and thread...