CPAC: ISELLE - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 16143
Age: 27
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:
Contact Yellow Evan

Re:

#301 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 04, 2014 9:57 am

Kingarabian wrote:As I suspected, category 4. Can't under estimate that shear though.



SHIPS has shear diminishing even further within 6 to 12 hours.
0 likes   
Top
supercane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2858
Joined: Wed Sep 16, 2009 8:27 pm

Re: EPAC: ISELLE - Hurricane

#302 Postby supercane » Mon Aug 04, 2014 10:00 am

Macrocane wrote:Beautiful hurricane, almost perfect annular.


Not quite, but much closer than before. From the 12Z SHIPS output:
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/04/14 12 UTC ##
## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ##
## AHI= 36 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 16143
Age: 27
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:
Contact Yellow Evan

#303 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 04, 2014 10:35 am

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 16143
Age: 27
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:
Contact Yellow Evan

Re: EPAC: ISELLE - Hurricane

#304 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 04, 2014 10:39 am

Image

oh my
0 likes   
Top
HurricaneRyan
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 813
Age: 31
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2010 3:05 pm

#305 Postby HurricaneRyan » Mon Aug 04, 2014 11:38 am

Iselle is awesome looking
0 likes   
Kay '22 Hilary '23
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: EPAC: ISELLE - Hurricane

#306 Postby tolakram » Mon Aug 04, 2014 11:52 am

live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=17&lon=-138&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=95&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 16143
Age: 27
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:
Contact Yellow Evan

#307 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 04, 2014 11:57 am

Iselle IMO is the best major in this part (W of 120) of the globe since 2006.
0 likes   
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: EPAC: ISELLE - Hurricane

#308 Postby tolakram » Mon Aug 04, 2014 11:57 am

from the ftp site

16:30Z
Image

source: ftp://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/pub/goeswest/overview2/vis/
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#309 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 04, 2014 12:37 pm

T6.5 at next update most likely? That would support 125 kt.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 16143
Age: 27
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:
Contact Yellow Evan

#310 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 04, 2014 12:39 pm

Cloud tops warming and eye becoming smaller.

Wonder how strong this will be when I get back home at 1z.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145308
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: ISELLE - Hurricane

#311 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 04, 2014 12:43 pm

Missions to Iselle on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Code: Select all

PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
   1.HURRICANE ISELLE
      FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 49      FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
      A. 06/0000Z                A. 06/0530Z
      B. NOAA9 0109C ISELLE      B. AFXXX 0209C ISELLE
      C. 05/1730Z                C. 06/0001Z
      D. NA                      D. 17.1N 142.9W
      E. NA                      E. 06/0515Z TO 06/0830Z
      F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT     F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

   2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
      A. BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT 06/1800Z
      B. A G-IV MISSION DEPARTING PHNL AT 06/1730Z
         FOR 07/0000Z.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#312 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 04, 2014 12:49 pm

NOAA9 is en route to Hawaii right now in a non-tasked mission.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15980
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re:

#313 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 04, 2014 1:04 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:NOAA9 is en route to Hawaii right now in a non-tasked mission.


What would the dropnodes reveal.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant
Top
CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: Re:

#314 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 04, 2014 1:07 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:NOAA9 is en route to Hawaii right now in a non-tasked mission.


What would the dropnodes reveal.


Nothing now since it is a transporting mission moving the plane.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
PTrackerLA
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5277
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
Location: Lafayette, LA

Re: EPAC: ISELLE - Hurricane

#315 Postby PTrackerLA » Mon Aug 04, 2014 1:26 pm

Beautiful storm! It will be interesting to see how much she weakens while approaching Hawaii.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15980
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

#316 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 04, 2014 1:27 pm

Image

Beautiful.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant
Top
User avatar
somethingfunny
ChatStaff
ChatStaff
Posts: 3926
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 31, 2007 10:30 pm
Location: McKinney, Texas

#317 Postby somethingfunny » Mon Aug 04, 2014 1:30 pm

Although there is still no guarantee that Iselle would look like this tomorrow, if it is still annular this would be the first recon mission into an annular storm since.... Isabel? Also I think this would be the first upper air Gonzo flight into annular-supportive conditions ever.
0 likes   
I am not a meteorologist, and any posts made by me are not official forecasts or to be interpreted as being intelligent. These posts are just my opinions and are probably silly opinions.
Top
User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2419
Age: 30
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Casa Grande, Arizona

#318 Postby galaxy401 » Mon Aug 04, 2014 1:34 pm

I'm surprised this hurricane hasn't gone under an EWRC yet. I suppose annular hurricanes don't do it as often.
0 likes   
Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
Top
User avatar
hawaiigirl
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 51
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2009 6:38 pm

Re: EPAC: ISELLE - Hurricane

#319 Postby hawaiigirl » Mon Aug 04, 2014 1:35 pm

I'm getting really nervous about these back-to-back storms
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145308
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: ISELLE - Hurricane

#320 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 04, 2014 1:54 pm

18z Best Track remains at 120kts.

EP, 09, 2014080418, , BEST, 0, 161N, 1370W, 120, 947, HU
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2014”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest