CPAC: ISELLE - Post-Tropical

[ScottNAtlanta]

I think a read of this would be helpful

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annular_tropical_cyclone

Also, the NHC has not said this was "annular". Annular-like, quasi annular, etc. Its difficult to know if you dont have recon...a big eye does not an annular hurricane make.

[Alyono]

18Z GFS plows over the Big Island

[Kingarabian]

The eye looks so perfect.

[Kingarabian]

Seems like Models are trending south this time around.

[supercane4867]

I think a read of this would be helpful

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annular_tropical_cyclone

Also, the NHC has not said this was "annular". Annular-like, quasi annular, etc. Its difficult to know if you dont have recon...a big eye does not an annular hurricane make.

Iselle fits the definitions of an annular hurricane in every aspect, especially when microwave pass showing rainbands are non-exist

[Alyono]

HWRF has this striking with winds near 80 kts. GFDL also has a cane, but it is initialized 20 kts too weak

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track remains at 120kts.

EP, 09, 2014080500, , BEST, 0, 160N, 1376W, 120, 947, HU

[Alyono]

may have weakened slightly based upon satellite imagery, but not much.

I suspect what may be going on is an "EWRC". The eye is becoming a bit larger.That really is the only sign of an annular EWRC

[supercane4867]

TXPZ24 KNES 050018
TCSENP

A. 09E (ISELLE)

B. 05/0000Z

C. 16.0N

D. 137.6W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T6.0/6.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU

H. REMARKS...DT DEFINED BY EYE PATTERN WITH A LIGHT GRAY SURROUNDING
GRAY SHADE GIVING A 5.0 WITH A WARM MEDIUM GRAY EYE AND A BLACK RING
ADDING 1.0 FOR A FINAL DT OF 6.0. MET IS 6.0 BASED ON RAPID DEVELOPMENT
COMPARED TO 24HRS AGO. PT IS 6.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

04/1816Z 16.0N 137.0W AMSU
04/1904Z 15.9N 137.1W AMSU


...LIDDICK

[supercane4867]

WOW

[Kingarabian]

WOW

Very well organized.

[Kingarabian]

HWRF has this striking with winds near 80 kts. GFDL also has a cane, but it is initialized 20 kts too weak

So the GFDL has a 90 KT system?

[gatorcane]

Saved IR rainbow loop...wow

[Alyono]

HWRF has this striking with winds near 80 kts. GFDL also has a cane, but it is initialized 20 kts too weak

So the GFDL has a 90 KT system?

interpolated GFDL is close to the cat 3 threshold

[Chris_in_Tampa]

NOAA G-IV's positioning earlier for Iselle, traveling from Tampa to Hawaii.

[NDG]

Amazing! Has her eye gotten bigger?
I barely pay too much attention to Pacific systems so I have a question, does the NHC fly in Recons to tropical systems that threaten Hawaii? I know that this is once a blue moon situation.

[Kingarabian]

Saved IR rainbow loop...wow

No signs of slowing down at all. I just hope the CPHC is capable of managing this storm correctly. Thank god we have recon.

[Kingarabian]

Amazing! Has her eye gotten bigger?
I barely pay too much attention to Pacific systems so I have a question, does the NHC fly in Recons to tropical systems that threaten Hawaii? I know that this is once a blue moon

Thankfully we do have recon. Wednesday and Thursday.

[Kingarabian]

HWRF has this striking with winds near 80 kts. GFDL also has a cane, but it is initialized 20 kts too weak

So the GFDL has a 90 KT system?

interpolated GFDL is close to the cat 3 threshold

A hurricane landfall kind of makes sense if the shear isn't too
bad as the waters over Hawaii are unusually warm.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[JonathanBelles]

The central pacific has made my blog: http://jonathanbelles.com/2014/08/04/be ... king-west/