CPAC: ISELLE - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: ISELLE - Hurricane

#361 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Mon Aug 04, 2014 8:50 pm

NDG wrote:I barely pay too much attention to Pacific systems so I have a question, does the NHC fly in Recons to tropical systems that threaten Hawaii? I know that this is once a blue moon situation.

From Plan of the Day:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/recon.php

Code: Select all

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
   1.HURRICANE ISELLE
      FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 49      FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
      A. 06/0000Z                A. 06/0530Z
      B. NOAA9 0109C ISELLE      B. AFXXX 0209C ISELLE
      C. 05/1730Z                C. 06/0001Z
      D. NA                      D. 17.1N 142.9W
      E. NA                      E. 06/0515Z TO 06/0830Z
      F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT     F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

   2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
      A. BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT 06/1800Z
      B. A G-IV MISSION DEPARTING PHNL AT 06/1730Z
         FOR 07/0000Z.

You can follow it on my site here when it happens:
http://tropicalglobe.com/recon/pacific/eastandcentral/
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#362 Postby NDG » Mon Aug 04, 2014 8:52 pm

:uarrow: Awesome, thank you.
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Re: EPAC: ISELLE - Hurricane

#363 Postby RL3AO » Mon Aug 04, 2014 8:53 pm

NDG wrote:Amazing! Has her eye gotten bigger?
I barely pay too much attention to Pacific systems so I have a question, does the NHC fly in Recons to tropical systems that threaten Hawaii? I know that this is once a blue moon situation.



[img]http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ndgarcia/5_zps8b093e66.gif
.

It would be a little disturbing if American recon would investigate storms threatening other nations (including Pacific storms threatening Central America) and then not help out Hawaii. Short answer: Yes. There will be six hour fixes plus G-IV upper air flights starting in a day or two.
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Re:

#364 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 04, 2014 8:53 pm

JonathanBelles wrote:The central pacific has made my blog: http://jonathanbelles.com/2014/08/04/be ... king-west/


Lol about time it made your blog! Good read.
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Re: EPAC: ISELLE - Hurricane

#365 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 04, 2014 8:55 pm

RL3AO wrote:
NDG wrote:Amazing! Has her eye gotten bigger?
I barely pay too much attention to Pacific systems so I have a question, does the NHC fly in Recons to tropical systems that threaten Hawaii? I know that this is once a blue moon situation.



[img]http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ndgarcia/5_zps8b093e66.gif
.

It would be a little disturbing if American recon would investigate storms threatening other nations (including Pacific storms threatening Central America) and then not help out Hawaii. Short answer: Yes. There will be six hour fixes plus G-IV upper air flights starting in a day or two.


I think the AF planes will land in Hickam AF base tomorrow.
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#366 Postby RL3AO » Mon Aug 04, 2014 8:56 pm

Hope they brought extra clothes. Julio might keep them there a while.
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Re:

#367 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 04, 2014 9:09 pm

RL3AO wrote:Hope they brought extra clothes. Julio might keep them there a while.

They usually send out 2 planes. I think they'll focus on Iselle more for the time being. Best part is that we'll have recon for Julio's absolute peak.


As for the NOAA plane, first time I see one being sent out to Hawaii.
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#368 Postby Hurricane Jed » Mon Aug 04, 2014 9:09 pm

I went back through records and BT data some time ago for Hawaiian TC landfalls. Dot in 1959 and Iniki in 1992 seem to be the only landfalling canes in Hawaii. Iwa in 82 appears to be a near miss.
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Re: Re:

#369 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 04, 2014 9:11 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Saved IR rainbow loop...wow :eek:


No signs of slowing down at all. I just hope the CPHC is capable of managing this storm correctly. Thank god we have recon.


With recon, I think the CPHC will handle it, though their website will probs be slower than normal.
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Re: Re:

#370 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Mon Aug 04, 2014 9:16 pm

Kingarabian wrote:As for the NOAA plane, first time I see one being sent out to Hawaii.

I believe the last tropical mission they did from there was in 2009 for Felicia:

http://www.tropicaleastpacific.com/reco ... rm=Felicia
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#371 Postby NDG » Mon Aug 04, 2014 9:21 pm

I was just looking at the trends of the intensity models, chances are increasing that the big Island of Hawaii will be hit by Iselle at least as a Cat 1 Hurricane, IMO.
Weird how SHIPS model is the weakest when in the Atlantic side is usually the most aggressive.
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Re: Re:

#372 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 04, 2014 9:23 pm

Chris_in_Tampa wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:As for the NOAA plane, first time I see one being sent out to Hawaii.

I believe the last tropical mission they did from there was in 2009 for Felicia:

http://www.tropicaleastpacific.com/reco ... rm=Felicia


Felicia 09 and Flossie 07 got recon.

Back in the glory days, recon to Hawaii was very very common
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Re:

#373 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 04, 2014 9:28 pm

NDG wrote:I was just looking at the trends of the intensity models, chances are increasing that the big Island of Hawaii will be hit by Iselle at least as a Cat 1 Hurricane, IMO.
Weird how SHIPS model is the weakest when in the Atlantic side is usually the most aggressive.


The longer Iselle maintains its strength the higher the chance of a hurricane. We've seen strong storms in the past that were torn apart by the shear around Hawaii as soon as they crossed 140w.
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Re: EPAC: ISELLE - Hurricane

#374 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Aug 04, 2014 9:38 pm

Continues to look impressive

Image
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Re: EPAC: ISELLE - Hurricane

#375 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 04, 2014 9:43 pm

Image

GFS shifting further south

So is the ECMWF.
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Re: EPAC: ISELLE - Hurricane

#376 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 04, 2014 9:43 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Continues to look impressive

http://i58.tinypic.com/ezqr6g.gif


Eye only looking better, but cloud tops are warming.
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Re: EPAC: ISELLE - Hurricane

#377 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 04, 2014 9:46 pm


HURRICANE ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014
800 PM PDT MON AUG 04 2014

Iselle's cloud pattern has been in a remarkably steady state since
the last advisory. The hurricane continues to maintain a classic
annular structure, with a large circular eye surrounded by a nearly
uniform ring of convection. Satellite intensity estimates were
T6.0/115 kt at 0000 UTC from TAFB and SAB and UW-CIMSS ADT values
have also decreased to 6.0. Based on these data and minor warming
of the cloud tops since that time, the initial intensity estimate is
lowered to 115 kt.

Iselle has jogged a little south of due west and slowed down during
the past six hours, and the initial motion estimate is 265/07. The
cyclone is forecast to continue on a slow westward course for the
next 12 hours or so in response to a mid-latitude trough briefly
weakening the subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone. After
that, Iselle should get caught under a building central Pacific
ridge with a slightly different orientation, which should result in
the cyclone's acceleration toward the west-northwest. On the
forecast track, the center of Iselle should move near or over
portions of the Hawaiian Islands in 72-96 hours. A slight
southward adjustment was made to the previous forecast track in the
direction of the multi-model consensus.

Iselle should retain its current annular characteristics during the
next 12 hour or so, and thus only slow weakening is likely. After
that time, enough of an increase in southwesterly vertical shear and
the ingestion of drier and more stable air should disrupt the status
quo and result in steadier weakening. Even further weakening should
occur by the time the center of Iselle approaches the Hawaiian
Islands in 48-72 hours, mostly as a result of a very dry air mass
in which the storm will be moving. By 96-120 hours, the GFS/ECMWF
solutions show vertical shear increasing to nearly 30 kt which
results in a decoupling of the cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast
is lower than the previous one but above the multi-model consensus
through 48 hours and is a blend of the multi-model consensus and
LGEM output after that time. Remannt low status is now indicated on
day 5.

Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely monitor the
progress of Iselle. However, it is important not to focus too
closely on the exact track and intensity forecasts because the
average track error 72 hours out is about 100 miles, the average
intensity error is about 15 kt, and because the hazards of a
tropical cyclone can extend over a broad area often well away from
the center.

Iselle is expected to cross into the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center's area of responsiblity around 1800 UTC on Tuesday. Once
this occurs, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu,
Hawaii, will begin issuing advisories on Iselle.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 16.0N 138.0W 115 KT 135 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 16.1N 139.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 16.5N 141.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 17.2N 144.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 17.9N 147.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 19.5N 154.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 21.0N 160.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 22.0N 165.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
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#378 Postby NDG » Mon Aug 04, 2014 9:54 pm

Looking at how the models have been performing with Iselle, EGR2 (UKMET), has had the best record with Iselle with its forecast track at 72-84 hrs. HWFR and GFDL have been too poleward. CMC/GEM has been out to lunch.
GFS operational has been doing a fairly good job with its track.
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#379 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 04, 2014 10:06 pm

AFAIK, no hurricane has ever made landfall in Hawaii from the east...Dot, Iwa and Iniki all came from the west or south on a recurve.
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Re:

#380 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 04, 2014 10:07 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:AFAIK, no hurricane has ever made landfall in Hawaii from the east...Dot, Iwa and Iniki all came from the west or south on a recurve.


Correct.
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