CPAC: ISELLE - Post-Tropical

[Alyono]

something looks a bit off in that run Seeing the ridge sufficiently to the north, plus a NW wobble just after clearing the island

Could the GFS be trying to replicate mountain effects?

[Equilibrium]

ISELLE has weakened significantly.

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[Kingarabian]

ISELLE has weakened significantly.

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And where did you get that information from?

[supercane4867]

It did weakened significantly compare to peak intensity but that was expected

[Yellow Evan]

something looks a bit off in that run Seeing the ridge sufficiently to the north, plus a NW wobble just after clearing the island

Could the GFS be trying to replicate mountain effects?

Perhaps. The Mountains have acted as mini steering current with these kinds of systems before (last two Flossie's)

[Yellow Evan]

ISELLE has weakened significantly.

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Not much more than expected.

[Equilibrium]

ISELLE has weakened significantly.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

And where did you get that information from?

[Alyono]

Flossie in 2007 also was coming in from very far to the south (it was down near 12.5N when it was at Iselle's longitude) and was never forecast to make a landfall. Too much ridging in that case

[Yellow Evan]

ISELLE has weakened significantly.

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And where did you get that information from?

That doesn't suggest much weakening. Only the N side has been sampled.

[Yellow Evan]

Flossie in 2007 also was coming in from very far to the south (it was down near 12.5N when it was at Iselle's longitude) and was never forecast to make a landfall. Too much ridging in that case

What about Flossie 2013 and how its LLC kept reforming north IIRC?

[Alyono]

shear for last year's Flossie. The center will often reform closer to the convection in a weak TC when there is a high shear environment

[Equilibrium]

ISELLE has weakened significantly.

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Not much more than expected.

I did not think would weaken as much as it has considering it was annular in structure.

This was a solid cat 4


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[supercane4867]

Extrap 972mb on this set and still away from center

Iselle is weakening very slowly if any

[Equilibrium]

This was a solid cat 4 what are you talking about yellow

[Yellow Evan]

ISELLE has weakened significantly.

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Not much more than expected.

I did not think would weaken as much as it has considering it was annular in structure.

This was a solid cat 4


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It's weakening at a climatological rate. It's probs around 90 knts now. It was 115 knts at this time yesterday.

It's amazing that this became a Cat 4 despite the conditions. And it lost its annular structure.

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[Kingarabian]

ISELLE has weakened significantly.

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Not much more than expected.

I did not think would weaken as much as it has considering it was annular in structure.

This was a solid cat 4


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

It actually was never forecast to even be a major hurricane. The waters it was travesting can't even maintain major hurricanes in the first place. It over achieved.

[Yellow Evan]

This was a solid cat 4 what are you talking about yellow

Yea, it was. And now, it's probs a mid to high end Cat 2 after 30 hours. Not totally unreasonable.

[Kingarabian]

Extrap 972mb on this set and still away from center

Iselle is weakening very slowly if any

West is where the eyewall opened after it weakened. Looks like the weakening has slowed down considerably.

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[supercane4867]

I did not think would weaken as much as it has considering it was annular in structure.

This was a solid cat 4

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Being annular doesn't makes one invincible, such structure helped Iselle to maintain intensity in an environment that already not ideal for a hurricane. When it met even worse conditions it would weaken

[AFWeather]

Interested to see if/how quickly the structure improves post-annular. The pressure is at least 5mb lower than the last advisory's estimate. The shear will be a non-issue soon... It's all about those SSTs!