CPAC: ISELLE - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

100kts 10 second winds at flight level.
85 KT near the center. 95 kts doesn't seem to bad of an estimate.

[JtSmarts]

Looks like Iselle is trying to redevelop a solid eye. I wonder if she will be able to completely close it off again? If so she may try to strengthen a little.

[galaxy401]

If I see Iselle maintaining its intensity or even strengthen when I wake up tomorrow, I'm going to get worried for Hawaii.

[Equilibrium]

I did not think would weaken as much as it has considering it was annular in structure.

This was a solid cat 4

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Being annular doesn't makes one invincible, such structure helped Iselle to maintain intensity in an environment that already not ideal for a hurricane. When it met even worse conditions it would weaken

Yes i agree without the robust annular structure i would think it will be down graded to a strong TS by Thursday.


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[JtSmarts]

It's wonderful that we have recon, there should be no question to how strong Iselle actually is. Our old friend Meteorologist Derek Ortt recently tweeted about 2 hours ago.

Recon shows Iselle remains a powerful hurricane. Residents of the Big Island should be prepped for a hurricane

[Alyono]

pressure has risen during passes, so it probably still is weakening

[Equilibrium]

solid cat2?

[Alyono]

of course, CPHC keeps the winds at 85 kts.

[Kingarabian]

of course, CPHC keeps the winds at 85 kts.

Can't wait to see their justification for it, 25 minutes after the update is due.

[Equilibrium]

If it is set at c2 its very marginal because its weakening.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Alyono]

marginal cat 2?

Look at the wind data. Nothing marginal about it at all

[Alyono]

does CPHC post intermediate advisories to their website?

[Kingarabian]

Some of those wind samples were borderline cat. 3. This is a serious storm that is weakening slower than forecast.

[Kingarabian]

does CPHC post intermediate advisories to their website?

They had one after the 11 pm HST update and before the 5PM HST update. So I'm assuming yes.

[supercane4867]

00z GFS is an outlier as both HWRF and GFDL stay constant

[Kingarabian]

I think we need a hurricane watch for the big Island.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

If it is set at c2 its very marginal because its weakening.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Advice: You don't need to post too much disclaimers, only when it is an unofficial/self-made forecast.

Back to the topic; Hurricane Iselle is not a marginal category 2, the winds in fact were at least 85 knots, or maybe above that threshold, and may be (85-95 kts).

[Equilibrium]

If any thing looks on shortwave the eye wall is opening up sorry to say this is going down hill and wont be surprised to see it under a rapid weakening flag very soon.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I think we need a hurricane watch for the big Island.

How about tropical storm warning? I guess it is shown consistently in the CPHC forecasts that the TS wind radii (with winds 34-63 kts) may reach there and also for Lanai. They (NWS) should also issue a tropical storm watch for Oahu, Maui and Molokai.

[Kingarabian]

If any thing looks on shortwave the eye wall is opening up sorry to say this is going down hill and wont be surprised to see it under a rapid weakening flag very soon.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It's open.