CPAC: ISELLE - Post-Tropical

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Alyono
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#561 Postby Alyono » Wed Aug 06, 2014 2:20 am

now I'm irritated

somehow, the atcf model guidance file had all of its contents deleted
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Re:

#562 Postby JonathanBelles » Wed Aug 06, 2014 2:22 am

Alyono wrote:now I'm irritated

somehow, the atcf model guidance file had all of its contents deleted


Sounds like a better poof than Don lol
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Equilibrium

Re: Re:

#563 Postby Equilibrium » Wed Aug 06, 2014 2:38 am

Kingarabian wrote:
Equilibrium wrote:If any thing looks on shortwave the eye wall is opening up sorry to say this is going down hill and wont be surprised to see it under a rapid weakening flag very soon.



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It's open.


Ascat was showing the eye wall closed but very weak in 1qudrant but yeah now it looks open and a mess on shortwave.
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#564 Postby Alyono » Wed Aug 06, 2014 2:45 am

EC has flipped back to indicating a landfall and as a hurricane with winds around 70 kts
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Kingarabian
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#565 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 06, 2014 3:02 am

All I know is, if it weren't for recon I would've thought it was a dying tropical storm.
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Equilibrium

#566 Postby Equilibrium » Wed Aug 06, 2014 3:30 am

Image


Image

EC looks a TS on approach.



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#567 Postby Alyono » Wed Aug 06, 2014 3:49 am

its a cane. I have access to 3 hourly time steps at the full resolution, not the public 24 hour low res ones
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Equilibrium

Re:

#568 Postby Equilibrium » Wed Aug 06, 2014 4:09 am

Alyono wrote:its a cane. I have access to 3 hourly time steps at the full resolution, not the public 24 hour low res ones


(Quoting your own words Alyono The EC is not worth a Indonesian Rupu.)

Why would i waste my time with higher resolution. I have more faith in the COAMPS.

BTW what is your forecast.
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#569 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 06, 2014 4:14 am

CPHC fashionably late.
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Re: Re:

#570 Postby Alyono » Wed Aug 06, 2014 4:15 am

Equilibrium wrote:
Alyono wrote:its a cane. I have access to 3 hourly time steps at the full resolution, not the public 24 hour low res ones


(Quoting your own words Alyono The EC is not worth a Indonesian Rupu.)

Why would i waste my time with higher resolution. I have more faith in the COAMPS.

BTW what is your forecast.


pay money and you'd have access to it. Not fair to paying clients
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#571 Postby Equilibrium » Wed Aug 06, 2014 4:24 am

Like that response got a chuckle out of it. :lol:
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Re: CPAC: ISELLE - Hurricane

#572 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Aug 06, 2014 4:37 am

Shear around the storm has dropped rapidly to near minimum

Image
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#573 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 06, 2014 4:48 am

WTPA43 PHFO 060927
TCDCP3

HURRICANE ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092014
1100 PM HST TUE AUG 05 2014

THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW ISELLE IS ENCOUNTERING
HOSTILE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A WEALTH OF DATA FROM A 53RD WEATHER
RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON AIRCRAFT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE POWERFUL
HURRICANE INDICATED THAT THE WINDS HAD NOT YET WEAKENED. EVEN THOUGH
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO LOOK WEAKER...WE HAVE DECIDED TO
WAIT UNTIL SOME TIME WEDNESDAY BEFORE DECREASING THE INITIAL
INTENSITY FOR THIS SYSTEM...WHICH CONTINUES TO ENCOUNTER VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF 10 TO 15 KT BASED ON THE
LATEST UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS AND SHIPS GUIDANCE. ALSO...THERE IS DRY AIR
BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM...WHICH IS CAUSING SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN EYEWALL TO COLLAPSE. DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 4.5. HOWEVER...THE DATA FROM THE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES OF 85 TO 90 KT.
AS A RESULT...THE CURRENT INTENSITY WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED AT 85 KT.
THE AIRCRAFT DATA WERE ALSO USED TO INCREASE THE WIND RADII...
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

THE DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT AND THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATE THE CURRENT MOTION IS 285/11 KT...WHICH REFLECTS
THE SYSTEM BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...WITH ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC DATA
ADDED FROM A NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT...WHICH FLEW EARLIER TODAY. THE
LATEST TRACK FORECAST FOR ISELLE FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ONE WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. SOME GRADUAL ACCELERATION IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH SOME SLOWING IN THE FORWARD MOTION STARTING
DURING THE 48 TO 72 HOUR PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES INCREASINGLY
SHALLOW. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE WINDS FROM ISELLE ARE EXPECTED
TO AFFECT THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FROM THURSDAY INTO THE EARLY
WEEKEND.

SOME RELAXATION OF THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 36
HOURS IS ANTICIPATED AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF THE HURRICANE
WEAKENS...AND A RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHIFTS
WESTWARD. THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS...
WHICH FOLLOWS THE TRENDS DEPICTED BY THE SHIPS/LGEM/IVCN GUIDANCE.
STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 3 DAYS...AND A SLOWER
RATE OF WEAKENING THEREAFTER.

IT IS IMPORTANT FOR PEOPLE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS NOT TO FOCUS
TOO CLOSELY ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK OF ISELLE. WITH AN AVERAGE
48 HOUR TRACK ERROR OF APPROXIMATELY 80 MILES...IT IS STILL TOO SOON
TO SAY WITH MUCH CERTAINTY WHICH ISLANDS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE THE WORST WEATHER...AND EVERYONE SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM ISELLE. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT
TO KEEP IN MIND THAT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONES CAN
EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
OVER SOME OF THE EASTERNMOST ISLANDS POSSIBLE BY EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 16.9N 142.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 17.5N 145.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 18.3N 148.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 18.9N 152.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 19.5N 154.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 20.7N 160.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 21.5N 165.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 22.0N 169.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON
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Re: CPAC: ISELLE - Hurricane

#574 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 06, 2014 4:50 am

supercane4867 wrote:Shear around the storm has dropped rapidly to near minimum

Image

Should help it breath a bit. I'm assuming it'll keep its 85kt status during this period and then weaken once more before it makes landfall.

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#575 Postby Frank2 » Wed Aug 06, 2014 4:51 am

Looks like poor Jim Cantore made another trip to Hawaii for nothing - last year or in 2012 they had a similar situation, and Jim was there when the system came ashore as a shower. The last major hurricane to make landfall was Iniki (1992) but that had a rare Kona track, and is probably why it didn't weaken as they usualy do when approaching from the east...

The latest TCD mentions "steady weakening over the next 3 datys" and the IR already shows the warming that has taken place over the past 12 hours, so just my own opinion and guess, but it looks like the system will not be the major hurricane it was 48 hours ago when it reaches the islands.

P.S. Iniki means "strong and piercing wind" - interesting...

Frank
Last edited by Frank2 on Wed Aug 06, 2014 5:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#576 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 06, 2014 4:54 am

Frank2 wrote:Looks like poor Jim Cantore made another trip to Hawaii for nothing - last year or in 2012 they had a similar situation, and Jim was there when the system came ashore as a shower. The last major hurricane to make landfall was Iniki (1992) but that had a rare Kona track, and is probably why it didn't weaken as they usualy do when approaching from the east...

Frank

It's still a 100mph storm people. And it just entered a no shear environment.
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Equilibrium

#577 Postby Equilibrium » Wed Aug 06, 2014 5:07 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 AUG 2014 Time : 090000 UTC
Lat : 16:53:59 N Lon : 142:48:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.0 / 988.9mb/ 65.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.5 3.3 2.4

Center Temp : +0.9C Cloud Region Temp : -25.0C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.50 ARC in DK GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 110km
- Environmental MSLP : 1013mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 21.7 degrees
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Re: CPAC: ISELLE - Hurricane

#578 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Wed Aug 06, 2014 5:16 am

Saved water vapor loop:

Image
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Equilibrium

#579 Postby Equilibrium » Wed Aug 06, 2014 5:17 am

Image
Collapsing from dry air intrusion.

TXPN23 KNES 060559
TCSCNP

A. 09E (ISELLE)

B. 06/0530Z

C. 16.8N

D. 142.2W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T3.5/4.5/W1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSU

H. REMARKS...DT=3.5 BASED ON .8 BANDING ON LOG10 SPIRAL. PT-3.5
MET=3.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS


Looks about on the mark.
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#580 Postby Cyclenall » Wed Aug 06, 2014 5:22 am

Image

Image

Ouch. Right as it was crossing the 140ºW mark that's when it really degraded in appearance so the 140 "magic" of blasting tropical cyclones is still a thing. In terms of structure Iselle is just falling apart quick but the winds are likely higher than one would expect because it takes longer for the winds to diminish. On the WV image, dry air is wrapping into the outside part of Iselle and the main cause of the convection tops warming most likely.

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