CPAC: ISELLE - Post-Tropical

[Alyono]

dont use Dvorak when we have aircraft data.

Dvorak also had Isabel MUCH weaker than it was in reality. Same with Bonnie in 1998

[Alyono]

Someone needs to tell Postel to look at the DATA and not Dvorak ESTIMATES

[Equilibrium]

It's now elongated to the point it looks egg shaped.

[Frank2]

Lots of strato-cu and no doubt why the TCD mentions the system becoming very shallow - much different from 24 hours ago...

[Equilibrium]

Don't look any better than a TS now would be very surprised if there is any winds over 64 knots.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tolakram]

All non mets must include the disclaimer when posting a prediction or forecast.

I will also remind everyone that you must be respectful to other posters at all times. If you have issues with other posts please use the report feature and move on. Back and forth arguing and attempting to embarrass another poster will not be tolerated.

[Yellow Evan]

Don't look any better than a TS now would be very surprised if there is any winds over 64 knots.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Doubtful, given Recon last night supported a mid-level Cat 2.

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA33 PHFO 061147
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ISELLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092014
200 AM HST WED AUG 06 2014

...HURRICANE ISELLE WEAKENS AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM HST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 144.1W
ABOUT 745 MI...1200 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 945 MI...1520 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...145 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY
* MAUI COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ISELLE. WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR ADDITIONAL
ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC FOR YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN HONOLULU.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM HST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 144.1 WEST. ISELLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE OUTER WINDS OF ISELLE
MAY REACH THE EASTERNMOST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...145 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ISELLE IS EXPECTED BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY
THURSDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 155
MILES...250 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII ON THURSDAY...AND PORTIONS OF MAUI COUNTY THURSDAY NIGHT.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ISELLE ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY
BECOMING DAMAGING ALONG SOME COASTLINES BY THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH ISELLE ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE BIG ISLAND THURSDAY AND SPREAD TO THE REMAINDER OF THE
STATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON

[tolakram]

Live IR: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=17&lon=-150&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=95&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10

[Equilibrium]

Been tracking it Evan its looking really sad.

Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 AUG 2014 Time : 120000 UTC
Lat : 17:04:03 N Lon : 143:31:51 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.7 / 992.6mb/ 59.0kt


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

Strange looking storm

[Equilibrium]

look at the frames you see the collapse.
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewalltropmain.html


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Yellow Evan]

Been tracking it Evan its looking really sad.

Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 AUG 2014 Time : 120000 UTC
Lat : 17:04:03 N Lon : 143:31:51 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.7 / 992.6mb/ 59.0kt


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I have to agree it's not the best looking storm, but based on Recon, this is probs still a hurricane. Winds don't decrease that fast over open water.

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 09, 2014080612, , BEST, 0, 169N, 1439W, 75, 983, HU, 34, NEQ, 120, 75, 80, 115, 1011, 190, 15, 0, 20, E, 0, , 0, 0, ISELLE, D,
EP, 09, 2014080612, , BEST, 0, 169N, 1439W, 75, 983, HU, 50, NEQ, 80, 40, 45, 75, 1011, 190, 15, 0, 20, E, 0, , 0, 0, ISELLE, D,
EP, 09, 2014080612, , BEST, 0, 169N, 1439W, 75, 983, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 15, 15, 25, 1011, 190, 15, 0, 20, E, 0, , 0, 0, ISELLE, D,

Not unreasonable, but if it wants to make it, it can not weaken this fast. It's the last advisory w/o recon though.

[euro6208]

Weaken rapidly since i last was in here...Still hundreds of miles from possible landfall and this should be even weaker by then...

[euro6208]

09E ISELLE 140806 1200 16.9N 143.9W EPAC 75 983

Down to 75 knots...

[wxman57]

No hurricane for Hawaii. Iselle should pass south of the Big Island as a rapidly-weakening tropical storm.

[Yellow Evan]

No hurricane for Hawaii. Iselle should pass south of the Big Island as a rapidly-weakening tropical storm.

South? Will topography prevent a landfall?

[wxman57]

No hurricane for Hawaii. Iselle should pass south of the Big Island as a rapidly-weakening tropical storm.

South? Will topography prevent a landfall?

No, not topography. It's just tracking more west than west-northwest.

[Yellow Evan]

No hurricane for Hawaii. Iselle should pass south of the Big Island as a rapidly-weakening tropical storm.

South? Will topography prevent a landfall?

No, not topography. It's just tracking more west than west-northwest.

If it would to continue on its present course, it appears it will barley miss South Point.