CPAC: ISELLE - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

live visible: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=17&lon=-150&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=95&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10

Closer: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=17&lon=-146&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=95&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10

http://imageshack.com/a/img673/811/RsHahy.jpg

Looks really good now with convection on the rise.

Sure does. Needs to continue packing if it wants to be picked up.

[CrazyC83]

Recon seems to agree on the current 75 kt intensity.

[tallywx]

chances increasing that this will miss Hawaii to the south. Moving due west now, showing no signs of a continued WNW motion

Why do models perform so poorly in this area? Is it lack of balloon soundings? Compared to the Atlantic Basin where guidance is remarkable even many days out, they are really missing the boat here in a fairly simple synoptic environment. It's like being back in the late 1980s.

[Yellow Evan]

chances increasing that this will miss Hawaii to the south. Moving due west now, showing no signs of a continued WNW motion

Why do models perform so poorly in this area? Is it lack of balloon soundings? Compared to the Atlantic Basin where guidance is remarkable even many days out, they are really missing the boat here in a fairly simple synoptic environment. It's like being back in the late 1980s.

Models have slowly been shifting south over the past several days.

[wxman57]

Where can I find the recon for Iselle? Tropicalatlantic.com appears to have only Atlantic Basin recon.

[supercane4867]

Where can I find the recon for Iselle? Tropicalatlantic.com appears to have only Atlantic Basin recon.

http://tropicalglobe.com/recon/pacific/eastandcentral/

[supercane4867]

12z model runs still showing landfall on Hawaii

[Yellow Evan]

Recon seems to agree on the current 75 kt intensity.

Entire storm has not yet been sampled.

[Kingarabian]

12z model runs still showing landfall on Hawaii

http://i.imgur.com/YtT6uJi.png

I think the 00z Euro was also showing a Hawaii landfall.

[Yellow Evan]

[supercane4867]

Recon confirmed hurricane force wind on the south side of center suggests eyewall is now fully closed

[wxman57]

12z model runs still showing landfall on Hawaii

http://i.imgur.com/YtT6uJi.png

I think the 00z Euro was also showing a Hawaii landfall.

00Z Euro had the center grazing the southern tip of the Big Island. No change with the 12Z Euro. However, Iselle is moving due west and has been for the past 12 hours. Center is south of the CPHC forecast track.

[Kingarabian]

12z model runs still showing landfall on Hawaii

http://i.imgur.com/YtT6uJi.png

I think the 00z Euro was also showing a Hawaii landfall.

00Z Euro had the center grazing the southern tip of the Big Island.

So the ridge was stronger than advertised or is it because the storm itself?

[Yellow Evan]

12z model runs still showing landfall on Hawaii

http://i.imgur.com/YtT6uJi.png

I think the 00z Euro was also showing a Hawaii landfall.

00Z Euro had the center grazing the southern tip of the Big Island. No change with the 12Z Euro. However, Iselle is moving due west and has been for the past 12 hours.

The advisory said a WNW movement I thought. It's been moving pretty much west though probs. It's intensification should help it gain latitude.

[wxman57]

Maybe it was forecast to move WNW, but I've measured a 12hr movement toward 273 deg at 13.5 kts. Toward 270 deg at 12 kts past 12 hours.

[CrazyC83]

Recon seems to agree on the current 75 kt intensity.

Entire storm has not yet been sampled.

If that is the case, then the intensity might need to be increased again. Highest SFMR was 72 I believe (flight level wasn't that high), which supports 75 kt.

[tallywx]

chances increasing that this will miss Hawaii to the south. Moving due west now, showing no signs of a continued WNW motion

Why do models perform so poorly in this area? Is it lack of balloon soundings? Compared to the Atlantic Basin where guidance is remarkable even many days out, they are really missing the boat here in a fairly simple synoptic environment. It's like being back in the late 1980s.

Models have slowly been shifting south over the past several days.

Not picking up on the current and sustained W movement at T+0 over multiple runs is pretty dismal.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

For NW to SE pass:

Flight 30s: 82kts
Flight 10s: 85kts
Surface Estimate 10s: 71kts

[Kingarabian]

Models have slowly been shifting south over the past several days.

Not picking up on the current and sustained W movement at T+0 over multiple runs is pretty dismal.[/quote]
Maybe they didn't see the storm becoming this shallow? Looks much better now, but last night was torrid.

[tallywx]

Models have slowly been shifting south over the past several days.

Not picking up on the current and sustained W movement at T+0 over multiple runs is pretty dismal.

Maybe they didn't see the storm becoming this shallow? Looks much better now, but last night was torrid.[/quote]


I'm actually surprised the TS warning isn't accompanied by a hurricane watch given warm SSTs, low shear, and a type of system that steady-states better than most (i.e., inner core survived the shear episode yesterday). They are really hanging their hat on climatology, it seems.