Tropical wave in Central Caribbean

[Hurricaneman]

This is starting to catch my attention, while its not modeled to develop the area which is near the windward islands has moist air to work with and low shear in the Caribbean so this area may need to be monitored for convective persistence

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

what area talk about? one close leedwards islands?

the area east of the islands so yes

[Nimbus]

Its a weak wave with some associated moisture entering the Caribbean. Does look like it is under upper level high pressure. Probably have to wait till it reaches the western Caribbean before it has any chance at all for development.

[tropicwatch]

The area approaching the Windward Islands is a little interesting. Around 10-12N and 55W the vorticity is increasing and it appears to have high pressure above it.

[CFLHurricane]

There's definitely spin there. I'm a little concerned about the hostile conditions in the Caribbean right now. If anything does get going, it's likely to struggle.

I'd definitely like to hear from the experts on this.

[NDG]

Other than more beneficial rains for the Lesser Antilles, if there is no global model support for development especially from the Euro then you should not worry about it. IMO. Plus UL winds might look better for development in the Caribbean but low level diverging winds & dry air still look pretty strong.




The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Sanibel]

Nothing you would hang your hat on but if it finds favorability this is the time of year where it could take-off.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2014

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM 18N52W TO
9N53W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS OCCURRING
FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 51W-57W WITH STRONGEST CONVECTION WITHIN
90 NM W OF WAVE AXIS FROM 11N-12N.

[floridasun78]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2014

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM 18N52W TO
9N53W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS OCCURRING
FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 51W-57W WITH STRONGEST CONVECTION WITHIN
90 NM W OF WAVE AXIS FROM 11N-12N.

it look like weaking as get closer to leedwards

[tropicwatch]

The convection kind of went poof tonight

[TheStormExpert]

Levi Cowan says this may have to be watched once in the BoC.

[Gustywind]

Yellow alert for a risk of strong showers and tstorms have been activated for Guadeloupe and Martinica. See latest advisories for these two islands: http://www.meteofrance.gp/vigilance-antilles-guyane then click on Guadeloupe or Martinica.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI AUG 08 2014

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM 18N60W TO
10N61W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT IS CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 58W-
63W.

[abajan]

I'm vacationing on the northeastern coast of Barbados (Bathsheba, to be precise). It's been raining on and off all morning and within the last 10 minutes or so there have some been storm force gusts. Perhaps this system should be monitored for possible development.

[tailgater]

This wave has no model support that I've seen but I think it may be the only game in town or at least in the Western Alt, for a while.

The vorticity is now in the dreaded eastern Caribbean. But it still has a pulse somewhat.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8vorZ.GIF

Shear is not very bad in this area and once it nears the western Caribbean it could slow down enough to start get some west winds on the southern side. Time will tell.
I hate relying on the models to tell us when something will brew but I'm an old stubborn fart. Kinda takes the fun out of it for me.

[Sanibel]

Too weak. Basin negative.

[tropicwatch]

Convection is doing pretty good today. Lets see if it can hold it for awhile.

[cycloneye]

Good news for PR as the rain looks good to at least aliviate the drought.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI AUG 08 2014

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM 19N61W TO
9N64W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT IS CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 60W-66W.

[cycloneye]

Maybe,maybe getting some organization? What I can tell is St Croix got a 43 mph gust in a squall that moved thru earlier this afternoon and several stations in PR measured gusts in the 30's.

[Dave C]

I looped a visable of the area and seems to be a large outflow boundary lifting northward from area. Maybe will get going in moist air further west.