CPAC: ISELLE - Post-Tropical

[WeatherGuesser]

Getting stronger or just not weakening as fast as expected?

[Kingarabian]

Getting stronger or just not weakening as fast as expected?

Definitely looks a lot better than it did 6 hours ago.

[CrazyC83]

For NW to SE pass:

Flight 30s: 82kts
Flight 10s: 85kts
Surface Estimate 10s: 71kts

Those, so far, provide good agreement on a 75 kt intensity. We shall see what the NE and SW quads are like, but the NW quad is the RFQ.

[cycloneye]

It will be interesting to see these web cams from Hawaii to see how things progress.

http://www.earthcam.com/usa/hawaii/?cam=waikoloa

[NDG]

So how wide is this eye, a good 30-40 miles?

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 09, 2014080618, , BEST, 0, 170N, 1452W, 80, 982, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 70, 70, 100, 1011, 190, 20, 0, 20, E, 0, , 0, 0, ISELLE, D,
EP, 09, 2014080618, , BEST, 0, 170N, 1452W, 80, 982, HU, 50, NEQ, 70, 40, 40, 70, 1011, 190, 20, 0, 20, E, 0, , 0, 0, ISELLE, D,
EP, 09, 2014080618, , BEST, 0, 170N, 1452W, 80, 982, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 15, 15, 30, 1011, 190, 20, 0, 20, E, 0, , 0, 0, ISELLE, D,

[Yellow Evan]

It will be interesting to see these web cams from Hawaii to see how things progress.

http://www.earthcam.com/usa/hawaii/?cam=waikoloa

They were probs some from Flossie's thread last year.

[supercane4867]

Very unique appearance



Convection continue to build around the eye could support T5.0 on dvorak analysis

[Kingarabian]

EP, 09, 2014080618, , BEST, 0, 170N, 1452W, 80, 982, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 70, 70, 100, 1011, 190, 20, 0, 20, E, 0, , 0, 0, ISELLE, D,
EP, 09, 2014080618, , BEST, 0, 170N, 1452W, 80, 982, HU, 50, NEQ, 70, 40, 40, 70, 1011, 190, 20, 0, 20, E, 0, , 0, 0, ISELLE, D,
EP, 09, 2014080618, , BEST, 0, 170N, 1452W, 80, 982, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 15, 15, 30, 1011, 190, 20, 0, 20, E, 0, , 0, 0, ISELLE, D,

Bumped up to 80kts?

[Kingarabian]

Well looking at the CPHC forecast, it looks like the call for a WNW turn begins within 6 hours from now. We'll see if they stick to their guns.

[JtSmarts]

Iselle went from a large doughnut when she was annular to now looking like a mini doughnut. Reminds me of 2005's Vince.

Vince from 2005

[Epsilon_Fan]

Looks like a Central Pacific Epsilon...

[tallywx]

Looks like a Central Pacific Epsilon...

I guess that's what happens with perfect shear conditions over a low-SST environment.

[supercane4867]

I see a pronounced NW motion in the last few frames. Will this start a trend or just short term wobble?

[Kingarabian]

I see a pronounced NW motion in the last few frames. Will this start a trend or just short term wobble?

http://i61.tinypic.com/20i6yd5.gif

Sort of like an instant jump.

[tallywx]

I see a pronounced NW motion in the last few frames. Will this start a trend or just short term wobble?

http://i61.tinypic.com/20i6yd5.gif

Sort of like an instant jump.

As soon as it completely wrapped the convection around, the very short-term motion changed to more WNW/NW. Almost like it's not being steered by just the shallowest currents anymore, which makes sense. The Big Island track may still be an accurate one.

[hurricaneCW]

Looks like a Central Pacific Epsilon...

I guess that's what happens with perfect shear conditions over a low-SST environment.

The biggest problem for Iselle is really the very dry, stable air it has to deal with because the SSTs really aren't that cool.

[Yellow Evan]

This looks like an Epsilon-Vince hybrid. In the EPAC.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Since we have Recon. Dvorak has been largely ignored, but....

20140806 1730 17.0 145.1 T4.0/4.0 09E ISELLE
20140806 1130 16.9 143.8 T3.0/4.0 09E ISELLE

Numbers are rising.

[Kingarabian]

Since we have Recon. Dvorak has been largely ignored, but....

20140806 1730 17.0 145.1 T4.0/4.0 09E ISELLE
20140806 1130 16.9 143.8 T3.0/4.0 09E ISELLE

Numbers are rising.

ADT values are trending near 4.5. Could support Cat. 2 status.