CPAC: ISELLE - Post-Tropical

[Alyono]

99 kts at flight level, but only about 72 at the surface

75-80 kts a good estimate

[NDG]

99 knots flight level winds!!!!

192330 1721N 14515W 6967 03056 9981 +087 +087 132096 098 065 008 00
192400 1720N 14517W 6971 03037 9962 +083 +083 130099 099 071 011 00
192430 1719N 14518W 6965 03029 9931 +099 +099 130088 099 072 013 00

[NDG]

But the pressure looks like is going to found lower than the last pass, IMO.

[Yellow Evan]

Based on the data and improved presentation, I'd go with 80 knts.

[Kingarabian]

Why such a massive difference between the surface and the flight level winds? Almost 30kts.

[supercane4867]

Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eyewall 045° (NE) from the eye center.

Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
989mb (Surface) Unavailable
988mb 85° (from the E) 90 knots (104 mph)
982mb 85° (from the E) 91 knots (105 mph)
976mb 85° (from the E) 100 knots (115 mph)
968mb 85° (from the E) 96 knots (110 mph)
948mb 100° (from the E) 101 knots (116 mph)
930mb 110° (from the ESE) 88 knots (101 mph)
908mb 110° (from the ESE) 88 knots (101 mph)
887mb 110° (from the ESE) 96 knots (110 mph)
850mb 110° (from the ESE) 102 knots (117 mph)
727mb 130° (from the SE) 95 knots (109 mph)
697mb 130° (from the SE) 78 knots (90 mph)

Quite impressive

[NDG]

To my surprise, pressure has not lowered.

192900 1708N 14529W 6967 02973 9813 +120 +110 144016 020 028 001 00

[Alyono]

no real change in pressure on this pass

[Kingarabian]

Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eyewall 045° (NE) from the eye center.

Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
989mb (Surface) Unavailable
988mb 85° (from the E) 90 knots (104 mph)
982mb 85° (from the E) 91 knots (105 mph)
976mb 85° (from the E) 100 knots (115 mph)
968mb 85° (from the E) 96 knots (110 mph)
948mb 100° (from the E) 101 knots (116 mph)
930mb 110° (from the ESE) 88 knots (101 mph)
908mb 110° (from the ESE) 88 knots (101 mph)
887mb 110° (from the ESE) 96 knots (110 mph)
850mb 110° (from the ESE) 102 knots (117 mph)
727mb 130° (from the SE) 95 knots (109 mph)
697mb 130° (from the SE) 78 knots (90 mph)

Quite impressive

Still a strong storm to say the least.

I wonder if the radius for tropical storm conditions has been reduced since Iselle became smaller?

[NDG]

Why such a massive difference between the surface and the flight level winds? Almost 30kts.

Based on this, looks like winds could be higher than estimated by SFMR.

Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
989mb (Surface) Unavailable
988mb 85° (from the E) 90 knots (104 mph)
982mb 85° (from the E) 91 knots (105 mph)
976mb 85° (from the E) 100 knots (115 mph)
968mb 85° (from the E) 96 knots (110 mph)
948mb 100° (from the E) 101 knots (116 mph)
930mb 110° (from the ESE) 88 knots (101 mph)
908mb 110° (from the ESE) 88 knots (101 mph)
887mb 110° (from the ESE) 96 knots (110 mph)
850mb 110° (from the ESE) 102 knots (117 mph)
727mb 130° (from the SE) 95 knots (109 mph)
697mb 130° (from the SE) 78 knots (90 mph)

[Alyono]

the sfmr may also be a bit off based upon the dropsonde

[tallywx]

Why such a massive difference between the surface and the flight level winds? Almost 30kts.

EDIT: SFMR appears a bit off for whatever reason.

[Yellow Evan]

I wonder if the radius for tropical storm conditions has been reduced since Iselle became smaller?

It's grown a little bit. Hence the TS watches for Maui and Oahu Counties.

[WeatherGuesser]

Folks keep focusing on the lack of storms approaching from the east in the past. But remember the oddities of this season so far. I'm thinking anything is possible.

[Yellow Evan]

Folks keep focusing on the lack of storms approaching from the east in the past. But remember the oddities of this season so far. I'm thinking anything is possible.

True, if there is any year within Generation VI to do it, this is probs the year.

[Kingarabian]

Why such a massive difference between the surface and the flight level winds? Almost 30kts.

EDIT: SFMR appears a bit off for whatever reason.

Yeah. Seemed fishy.

[supercane4867]

Folks keep focusing on the lack of storms approaching from the east in the past. But remember the oddities of this season so far. I'm thinking anything is possible.

- A borderline Cat.5 hurricane in May
- Super typhoon in South China sea
- Crossover storm from EPAC to WPAC

And 2014 continues...

[Chris_in_Tampa]

SFMR estimates are over 10 seconds. For a sonde it is likely much lower. I don't know for certain, but it may be as little as 0.5 seconds.

"Measurements of pressure, temperature, relative humidity, and wind are obtained at 0.5 s [2 Hz] resolution (for certain dropsonde models the wind measurements are only available at 1.0 s [1 Hz] resolution)."

From: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_page ... ormat.html

[tolakram]

Big picture, live visible: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=13&lon=-180&info=vis&zoom=4&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=95&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10

[supercane4867]

Dropsonde in the eye confirms 984mb central pressure