CPAC: ISELLE - Post-Tropical

[RL3AO]

Too soon to think about hurricane watches for the big island?

[Kingarabian]

Too soon to think about hurricane watches for the big island?

I think we should wait and see if Iselle continues moving NW or not.

[Yellow Evan]

Folks keep focusing on the lack of storms approaching from the east in the past. But remember the oddities of this season so far. I'm thinking anything is possible.

- A borderline Cat.5 hurricane in May
- Super typhoon in South China sea
- Crossover storm from EPAC to WPAC

And 2014 continues...

Second has nothing to do with the EPAC

We also had a powerful annular (this system) and a 130 knt Cat 4 in June (Cristina).

[Yellow Evan]

Too soon to think about hurricane watches for the big island?

Not out of the question.

[Yellow Evan]

Pressure form recon is about 2 mbar higher. Probs still a borderline Cat 2.

[Alyono]

hurricane warnings not watches may soon be needed

[supercane4867]

HWRF has been consistently forecasting a decent hurricane at landfall for days, may not be far off after all

[AFWeather]

Impressive satellite improvement over the past seven hours, at least in the core. Hasn't translated to the surface yet, but it may if she can keep this up.

[Yellow Evan]

Wow

[Yellow Evan]

Impressive satellite improvement over the past seven hours, at least in the core. Hasn't translated to the surface yet, but it may if she can keep this up.

Yet the pressures are rising.

[AFWeather]

Impressive satellite improvement over the past seven hours, at least in the core. Hasn't translated to the surface yet, but it may if she can keep this up.

Yet the pressures are rising.

Yep. And remember yesterday when the AVN indicated significant weakening, yet surface pressure was found 5mb lower than the estimated intensity along with no decrease in the wind intensity. She certainly isn't making the forecast easy on us.

And for what it's worth, she's now moving WNW finally. Right in line with the current CHPC track.

[Kingarabian]

Impressive satellite improvement over the past seven hours, at least in the core. Hasn't translated to the surface yet, but it may if she can keep this up.

Yet the pressures are rising.

Yep. And remember yesterday when the AVN indicated significant weakening, yet surface pressure was found 5mb lower than the estimated intensity along with no decrease in the wind intensity. She certainly isn't making the forecast easy on us.

And for what it's worth, she's now moving WNW finally. Right in line with the current CHPC track.

Good to have you here with us sir. Do you do recon as well?

Seems like Iselle's convection is expanding to the west.

[supercane4867]

At 7:00 AM HST, the center of Hurricane Iselle was located at 16.9N 144.9W.

690 miles ESE of Hilo
755 miles ESE of Kailua-Kona
725 miles ESE of South Point
800 miles ESE of Kahului
855 miles ESE of Kaunakakai
830 miles ESE of Lanai City
900 miles ESE of Honolulu

[Yellow Evan]

None of the recon data supports 85 knts, correct?

[supercane4867]

None of the recon data supports 85 knts, correct?

The 99kt flight level wind alone does supports 85-90kt

[Kingarabian]

At 7:00 AM HST, the center of Hurricane Iselle was located at 16.9N 144.9W.

690 miles ESE of Hilo
755 miles ESE of Kailua-Kona
725 miles ESE of South Point
800 miles ESE of Kahului
855 miles ESE of Kaunakakai
830 miles ESE of Lanai City
900 miles ESE of Honolulu

http://i.imgur.com/WnkhZT4.jpg

Beautiful, wow. What a comeback.

[Yellow Evan]

None of the recon data supports 85 knts, correct?

The 99kt flight level wind alone does supports 85-90kt

Didn't the dropsondes support higher?

[Kingarabian]

None of the recon data supports 85 knts, correct?

The 99kt flight level wind alone does supports 85-90kt

Didn't the dropsondes support higher?

The dropsnodes verified that something was wrong with the SFMR. And yes, that the flight level winds could be even higher.

[Yellow Evan]

The 99kt flight level wind alone does supports 85-90kt

Didn't the dropsondes support higher?

The dropsnodes verified that something was wrong with the SFMR. And yes, that the flight level winds could be even higher.

The rising pressures puzzle me more IMO.

[Yellow Evan]

Issued at 1100 AM HST WED AUG 06 2014
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location: 17.2N 145.9W
ABOUT 625 MI...1010 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 830 MI...1340 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
Maximum sustained winds: 90 MPH...150 KM/H
Present movement: WNW or 285 degrees AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
Minimum central pressure: 982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HAWAII COUNTY. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MAUI COUNTY.