5AM NHC East Coast Probabilities

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Hurricane ISABEL

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000
WTNT73 KNHC 140839
SPFAT3
HURRICANE ISABEL PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST SUN SEP 14 2003

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF ISABEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.2 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST WED SEP 17 2003

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

24.5N 68.5W 58 X X X 58 MYEG 235N 758W X X X 2 2
25.5N 69.5W 33 5 X X 38 MYNN 251N 775W X X X 2 2
26.5N 70.5W 3 22 2 1 28 MYGF 266N 787W X X X 2 2
MBJT 215N 712W 1 1 1 1 4 WILMINGTON NC X X X 2 2
MYMM 224N 730W X 1 2 1 4 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X X 2 2
MYSM 241N 745W X X 3 4 7 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X X 2 2

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2AM MON TO 2PM MON
C FROM 2PM MON TO 2AM TUE
D FROM 2AM TUE TO 2AM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER AVILA






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