The ULL

[Tip]

Looking at this latest water vapor loop, Isabel will have to contend with this feature off the South Carolina coast in the near future. Is this the mechanism to pull her north?


http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

[TampaFl]

No I do not think so, IMO. The trof that is located in the upper midwest at this time is forecast to move to the east coast and help pick Isabel up along with the High located off the New England States. The weakness between the two "should" guide the hurricane to the nw over the next 4 days. But you never know with these strong hurricanes , anything can happen as they some times create their own environment. Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Robert

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Tip]

Well whatever the triggering mechanism is the 00Z GFS ensembles are locking in on an east coast hit. Probabilities are going up fast.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRS_0z/f108.gif

[TampaFl]

Tip, The probabilities at this time are not going up fast.

Hurricane ISABEL

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000
WTNT73 KNHC 140839
SPFAT3
HURRICANE ISABEL PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST SUN SEP 14 2003

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF ISABEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.2 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST WED SEP 17 2003

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

24.5N 68.5W 58 X X X 58 MYEG 235N 758W X X X 2 2
25.5N 69.5W 33 5 X X 38 MYNN 251N 775W X X X 2 2
26.5N 70.5W 3 22 2 1 28 MYGF 266N 787W X X X 2 2
MBJT 215N 712W 1 1 1 1 4 WILMINGTON NC X X X 2 2
MYMM 224N 730W X 1 2 1 4 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X X 2 2
MYSM 241N 745W X X 3 4 7 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X X 2 2

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2AM MON TO 2PM MON
C FROM 2PM MON TO 2AM TUE
D FROM 2AM TUE TO 2AM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER AVILA

[Tip]

Tampa I did not mean Offical NHC probabilities!
I just meant it looks like the models are less dispersed witheir solutions.

[GalvestonDuck]

Keep in mind, the probs are for the chances of her passing within 85 NM through Wed 2AM AST (what's AST?).

[cvalkan4]

AST=Atlantic Standard Time (same as EDT)

[Stormsfury]

The ULL off of South Carolina is progged to set the stage for Isabel to turn NW and the second trough is what catches her and pulls her up in the general direction of the Mid-Atlantic.

SF