5AM NHC 120 Hour Plot Map

#1 Postby **TampaFl** » Sun Sep 14, 2003 4:25 am

Shows Isabel hitting NC/VA.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT ... 0858W5.gif

#2 Postby **Deenac813** » Sun Sep 14, 2003 7:20 am

That is pretty scary.. this is the first time they show Isabel hitting anyone in 120 hours right?? YIKES!

#3 Postby **TampaFl** » Sun Sep 14, 2003 7:26 am

Yes it is . And I am sure as time goes on with each forecast this track will be fine tuned. But keep in mind that after 72 hours the spread in the models vary quite a bit.

Robert

http://www.wrel.com/modelmap.htm

Carolina_survivor · #4 Postby **Carolina_survivor** » Sun Sep 14, 2003 7:29 am

If it veers just 20 miles left of that projected path, the eye will pass directly over my house. Yikes!

#5 Postby **Deenac813** » Sun Sep 14, 2003 7:31 am

Carolina_survivor wrote:If it veers just 20 miles left of that projected path, the eye will pass directly over my house. Yikes!

WOW! Please be careful if that happens.. I guess we will know for sure i a few days where she will land.

#6 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sun Sep 14, 2003 7:40 am

Hey Carolina...the eye is so big...20 miles is not going to make a diff. The eye is 60 miles wide...figure a 20 mile wide eye wall. Take that line and go 50 miles either side of it and those areas will see the eyewall due to the size of the eye. So...moving the line 20 miles one way or the other won't matter...

#7 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Sun Sep 14, 2003 7:43 am

If it hits NC what about EFFECTS ON CHAS S.C.??

beenthru6 · #8 Postby **beenthru6** » Sun Sep 14, 2003 8:13 am

I haven't posted much on these boards, because I am such a novice when it comes to weather and projecting what hurricanes will do, but I am on this board reading everything about what everyone else is saying.
I think at times, I just get more confused, because even people who appear to me to be very knowledgeable, have very differing opinions and seemingly plausible explanations as to why their projection makes more sense.

Seeing this morning that my area (20 miles north of Myrtle Beach on the coast) is no longer in the cone of a projected hit really made me relieved. But then I started reading here, and find out that one of the models has my area as a possible landfall :? I also remember that when Hugo hit Charleston, up until the last 12 hours (roughly) everyone was saying it was going to be a direct hit on the border area of NC/SC. I am not sure exactly what I am asking, just getting a little frustrated with the back and forth I guess.

floydchaser · #9 Postby **floydchaser** » Sun Sep 14, 2003 8:30 am

Been. the model that has SC as landfall is a climatology model, not a global model. It's not very reliable, so I wouldn't worry too much. You will be feeling effects of this storm in terms of high surf and potential beach erosion. Right now, the guidance is amazingly tightly clustered around a Mid-Atlantic hit. This can certainly change, so keep an eye on the situation. However, confidence is growing that the main effects from this storm will be felt north of Wilmington NC.

Carolina_survivor · #10 Postby **Carolina_survivor** » Sun Sep 14, 2003 8:52 am

I remember the night Hugo hit, going to bed expecting to be awakened in the middle of the night by the beginnings of the storm. My parents -- to escape Hugo's winds -- had considered driving to my brother's home in Charlotte for refuge but decided to wait it out. Here in eastern N.C., we woke up to a gorgeous blue sky. My brother and his family in Charlotte were suffering from a direct hit.

I think (hope) our technology for predicting the storms has improved a lot since them, but I think it is history like that, that makes people continue to wonder and express their doubt about the computer models.

5AM NHC 120 Hour Plot Map

5AM NHC 120 Hour Plot Map

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