Let's calm down and follow a very dangerous hurricane

[cycloneye]

I haved noticed in recent days that heated exchanges between members haved increased especially between some of the proffesionals who know what they are talking about when weather is concerned and some members here.We are now dealing with a powerful hurricane that will strike someplace in the east coast and we have to concentrate on that and those who live in the area that will be impacted make the preparations with time to deal with this monster.Here in storm2k we are a family emviroment board as here not only we have the tropical section but many sections of different things such as sports,garden,off-topic,fun and games,observations from where you are and many more forums.I hope that in the comming days before Isabel makes a landfall we can have great anaylisis and discussions about what to expect from Isabel and not having other kind of discussions that not help in this important moment.

Luis

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

right on!!! ......cy

[mf_dolphin]

As one of the Storm2K Admins I have asked that the Moderators monitor this forum closely today. While everyone has a right to post their opinions, hysteria doesn't help with the situation. We will treat each other with respect and courtesy! Moderators will edit suspect posts and will PM the poster as to why the post was edited. Our rules here are 1 warning then a time-out.... There will be no name calling! We have a wealth of professional and amateur weather folks here. Use the information available to make sure you and your family stay safe!

For those of you that feel you may be in the path of Isabel, listen to the professionals on the board. They have years of training in analyzing these types of systems. The Storm2K Forecast Team are another great source of information. They are on the Official Team because of their proven track record and their dedication to the site. Beside these two groups, we have a lot of other amateur folks. Most of you who have been in the hurricane community know who they are. Use their input and then look at the reality of what is actually happening. Usually they're pretty close

[Stephanie]

Great advice Luis & Marshall!

[hurricanedude]

HEY sTEPH, WE ARE GOING TO GET smacked!!!!! BY izzy

[Stephanie]

HEY sTEPH, WE ARE GOING TO GET smacked!!!!! BY izzy

Yep, it sure looks that way! I can't imagine what is going to happen to the shores of VA - NJ! :o

[wxman57]

I'd like to apologize for letting a few of my frustrations get through last night. I realize that many posters here have really know idea as to what steers a storm. What seems clear to me (and other mets) may be "clear as mud" to them. They have legitimate fears about Isabel turning towad them. I'll try to just point out the facts as best as I can and hope that I can ease some of their fears.

When I get to work tomorrow, I'll run a couple of "Slosh Inundation Maps" using HurrTRAK for Chesapeake(sp?) Bay and the Long Island area to give you an idea what to expect up there. I can zoom these maps down to street-level and put my mouse over any spot to get a water depth estimate.

[Anonymous]

Yep folks, we have approx 5 days, according to the latest NHC/TPC advisory at 5AM.

Even if the cane weakens some, it'll probably impact NC or SE VA in the vicinity of the Virginia Beach/Mouth of Chesapeake Bay region by Friday.

Everyone should be preparing now. If you decide to leave, do so as soon as possible because the Outer Banks/Tidewater region is notoriously difficult to evac with a hurricane approaching.

Let's pull together and track this storm. Ceye has hit it right on the head, excellent post.

-Jeb

[JetMaxx]

I agree Luis....I saw some uncalled for comments in this forum yesterday....and it was totally unneccesary.

[Stephanie]

I'd also suggest that it may be best just to "turn the other cheek" and just keep providing your forecasts. Those that want to learn will ask questions, those that want to cause trouble will find themselves banned.

[JetMaxx]

That's difficult to do sometimes Stephanie....I've lost my temper a couple times in recent weeks over something said to me (regarding college football of all things); and turned off my computer once yesterday to bite my tongue and cool off rather than say something I'd probably regret.

[ameriwx2003]

Yes.. I can understand frustrations can come out. I understand Air Force Mets and Wxman57 concerns. I mean think of how we feel when someone tries to tell us we are wrong in the profession we do:):):) Its a fine line I guess but I am for open discussion and ideas been put forth but in situations like this its best to let the people in the know handle the situation:):):). Oh well just my 2 cents :)

[Stephanie]

That's difficult to do sometimes Stephanie....I've lost my temper a couple times in recent weeks over something said to me (regarding college football of all things); and turned off my computer once yesterday to bite my tongue and cool off rather than say something I'd probably regret.

Believe me, I know what you mean Perry and Ameriwx. I've been there and done that in the "Off Topic" section when it comes to politics . I can understand especially the pro-mets feeling very frustrated when their forecasts are totally disregarded and trashed - you're going to take it personally. I guess the best thing is what you did Perry is to turn off the computer and walk away for alittle bit.

I REALLY appreciate getting all of the information and knowledge that I have been gaining from the pro's and amateurs alike on this board. I think you are all doing a FANTASTIC job and please continue to join us here in the future for all tropical and winter storms!

[obxhurricane]

Well...I'm still a little miffed at how I was treated(as if I was born yesterday) when I stated that Isabel was not going to Florida. I must admit...I did not respond in the corerct manner. And for that I am sorry.
But I will never apologize for giving a meotorologically sound analysis.

[vortex100]

Having produced forecasts for over 20 years now I am pretty immune to comments from those who think weather forecasting is useless. One wrong forecast and there are many who will think you ALWAYS forecast using a dart board. Hurricane forecasting a week ahead of time can by very tricky (unless you forecast for a storm like Fabian, which was a piece of cake). However, the tools we use now keep getting better every year. In the last 2-3 years, when have you seen the track forecast from the NHC for a major tropical system totally off the mark, even out to 4-5 days? I really cannot remember one.

[GalvestonDuck]

Great advice, guys!

And when one person, especially a pro met says, "If *this whatever* plays out this way, then *this place* is safe," I hope that members reading the post will realize that they are saying "IF." They are not being irresponsible and proclaiming flat out that a certain area is safe. They are simply educating us as to how a path may or may not turn and how the probabilities for a strike on one area may drop considerably.

And I ditto Stephanie's comments! This board really rocks!

[azsnowman]

Thanks Luis! I for one have no experience with hurrincanes, tornadoes etc. I do however have to deal with another side of Mother Nature, wildfire! In my 39 years living in the most prestine area of Az, I have seen my share and have been impacted directly by these towering infernos. Just last year, as most of you will remember, my family and I along with 30,000+ residents of the White Mountains had to evacuate for 10 days because of the Rodeo Chediski Fire. 420 homes were lost to this monster.

While wildfires cannot be tracked on radar, via satelite...they are as unpredictable as Hurricane Isabel has turned out to be. Being with the Navajo County Sheriffs Dept at the time.....the panic that I witnessed while on duty 2 days prior to our evacuation was beyond comprehension. The reason......rumors, speculation and the media. The residents had a 48 hour notice to prepare for possible evacuation, the hystaria created by some residents spread as rapidly as the fire itself.

I fully understand the reason for concern, as well there should be, from what I'm reading, studying and witnessing, Hurricane Isabel has the potential to be a very dangerous, life threating hurricane but cool heads do need to prevail here.

Once again Luis, thank you.....

Dennis

[cycloneye]

Thanks guys for the words and I hope that we continue to track very dangerous Isabel in the best way without any bashing between members and doing it that way will benefit all as more anaylisis and discussions about Isabel can flow to everyone as for the contrary if we do it the other way then the vital information will be lost as the attention is focused in little things.

[Lindaloo]

As usual, great post and excellent advice Luis.